The Ostrich Paradox


Book Description

"The Ostrich Paradox boldly addresses a key question of our time: Why are we humans so poor at dealing with disastrous risks, and what can we humans do about it? It is a must-read for everyone who cares about risk." —Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow We fail to evacuate when advised. We rebuild in flood zones. We don't wear helmets. We fail to purchase insurance. We would rather avoid the risk of "crying wolf" than sound an alarm. Our ability to foresee and protect against natural catastrophes has never been greater; yet, we consistently fail to heed the warnings and protect ourselves and our communities, with devastating consequences. What explains this contradiction? In The Ostrich Paradox, Wharton professors Robert Meyer and Howard Kunreuther draw on years of teaching and research to explain why disaster preparedness efforts consistently fall short. Filled with heartbreaking stories of loss and resilience, the book addresses: •How people make decisions when confronted with high-consequence, low-probability events—and how these decisions can go awry •The 6 biases that lead individuals, communities, and institutions to make grave errors that cost lives •The Behavioral Risk Audit, a systematic approach for improving preparedness by recognizing these biases and designing strategies that anticipate them •Why, if we are to be better prepared for disasters, we need to learn to be more like ostriches, not less Fast-reading and critically important, The Ostrich Paradox is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand why we consistently underprepare for disasters, as well as private and public leaders, planners, and policy-makers who want to build more prepared communities.




The Ostrich Effect


Book Description

The Ostrich Effect goes beyond the typical "how to" approach of most books that deal with difficult conversations at work. It aims to teach the reader what conversations to have, and when to have them, in order to solve destructive problems that occur in the workplace. Like the proverbial ostrich with its head in the sand, people often avoid confronting small issues at work, but, if avoided, these issues will escalate and inevitably wreak havoc. Drawing on a combination of social science research and Kahn’s practical experience as an organizational psychologist, the book examines the micro-processes that underlie the way in which these problems develop and flourish. These micro-processes are tiny, fleeting, and hardly noticeable, but when they are identified, something startling becomes apparent: there is a predictable pattern to this escalation. The book uses a variety of examples to demonstrate this pattern across a range of organizations and industries, and offers a toolkit to help guide the reader in resolving people problems at work. The toolkit focuses not on changing others, but on changing how we interact with others—our own behavior is the most powerful force for change that we have. The ostrich remains the symbol of those of us who foolishly ignore our problems while hoping that they will magically disappear. By identifying this "ostrich effect", the reader is empowered to re-frame and neutralize its impact.




The Ostrich Effect - Paperback


Book Description

How do you know when you've been successful? You could measure it by the things you've obtained or the goals you've reached. You could say, "I've come this far in this amount of time," and maybe that, to you, is a clear measure of success. You could even tell yourself something as simple as "I haven't failed." But what if instead of measuring your success by results, you measured it by your suffering. Success, then, can be viewed as not something that you win or lose but something that you pick up over time, slowly, with effort, ignoring all the signals that are telling you to bury your head in the sand. Are you ready to call yourself an Entrepreneur?




The Ostrich Effect


Book Description

The Ostrich Effect goes beyond the typical "how to" approach of most books that deal with difficult conversations at work. It aims to teach the reader what conversations to have, and when to have them, in order to solve destructive problems that occur in the workplace. Like the proverbial ostrich with its head in the sand, people often avoid confronting small issues at work, but, if avoided, these issues will escalate and inevitably wreak havoc. Drawing on a combination of social science research and Kahn’s practical experience as an organizational psychologist, the book examines the micro-processes that underlie the way in which these problems develop and flourish. These micro-processes are tiny, fleeting, and hardly noticeable, but when they are identified, something startling becomes apparent: there is a predictable pattern to this escalation. The book uses a variety of examples to demonstrate this pattern across a range of organizations and industries, and offers a toolkit to help guide the reader in resolving people problems at work. The toolkit focuses not on changing others, but on changing how we interact with others—our own behavior is the most powerful force for change that we have. The ostrich remains the symbol of those of us who foolishly ignore our problems while hoping that they will magically disappear. By identifying this "ostrich effect", the reader is empowered to re-frame and neutralize its impact.




Raphael’s Ostrich


Book Description

Raphael’s Ostrich begins with a little-studied aspect of Raphael’s painting—the ostrich, which appears as an attribute of Justice, painted in the Sala di Costantino in the Vatican. Una Roman D’Elia traces the cultural and artistic history of the ostrich from its appearances in ancient Egyptian hieroglyphs to the menageries and grotesque ornaments of sixteenth-century Italy. Following the complex history of shifting interpretations given to the ostrich in scientific, literary, religious, poetic, and satirical texts and images, D’Elia demonstrates the rich variety of ways in which people made sense of this living “monster,” which was depicted as the embodiment of heresy, stupidity, perseverance, justice, fortune, gluttony, and other virtues and vices. Because Raphael was revered as a god of art, artists imitated and competed with his ostrich, while religious and cultural critics complained about the potential for misinterpreting such obscure imagery. This book not only considers the history of the ostrich but also explores how Raphael’s painting forced viewers to question how meaning is attributed to the natural world, a debate of central importance in early modern Europe at a time when the disciplines of modern art history and natural history were developing. The strangeness of Raphael’s ostrich, situated at the crossroads of art, religion, myth, and natural history, both reveals lesser-known sides of Raphael’s painting and illuminates major cultural shifts in attitudes toward nature and images in the Renaissance. More than simply an examination of a single artist or a single subject, Raphael’s Ostrich offers an accessible, erudite, and charming alternative to Vasari’s pervasive model of the history of sixteenth-century Italian art.




Changing the Game


Book Description

The modern day youth sports environment has taken the enjoyment out of athletics for our children. Currently, 70% of kids drop out of organized sports by the age of 13, which has given rise to a generation of overweight, unhealthy young adults. There is a solution. John O’Sullivan shares the secrets of the coaches and parents who have not only raised elite athletes, but have done so by creating an environment that promotes positive core values and teaches life lessons instead of focusing on wins and losses, scholarships, and professional aspirations. Changing the Game gives adults a new paradigm and a game plan for raising happy, high performing children, and provides a national call to action to return youth sports to our kids.




Ostrich Production Systems


Book Description

A comprehensive review of all aspects of ostrich production including a series of case histories from some countries that farm ostriches commercially: important countries such as South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe; newly re-emerging industries such as Australia; and countries where production is less developed, such as Kenya, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).




Bounded Rationality and Behavioural Economics


Book Description

Economics Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon developed the concept of bounded rationality in the 1950s. This asserts that the cognitive abilities of human decision-makers are not always sufficient to find optimal solutions to complex real-life problems, leading decision-makers to find satisfactory, sub-optimal outcomes. This was a foundational component of the development of Behavioural Economics but in recent years the two fields have diverged, each with its own literature, its own approach and its own proponents. Behavioural Economics explores the areas of commonality between Economics and Psychology, in terms of its focus and its approach, whereas the bounded rationality literature largely analyses the implications of sub-optimal decision‐making through the mathematically sophisticated methodology of mainstream Economics. This book examines the nature and consequences of this divergence and questions whether this is a case of beneficial specialisation or whether it is unhelpful, potentially stunting the development of some aspects of Economics. It has been suggested that the major deficiency of Behavioural Economics is that it has failed to produce a single, widely applicable alternative to constrained optimisation. This book evaluates the extent to which this is the true and, if it is, the extent to which it is a product of the divergence between the two literatures. It also seeks to identify commonalities between the two subjects and suggests avenues of research in Economics that would benefit from a re-fusion of these two fields.




The 'Ostrich Effect'


Book Description

We develop a model of selective attention to information and apply it to investors' decisions about whether to obtain information about the value of their portfolio. In our model investors receive information about the aggregate level of the market and then decide whether to look up the value of their personal portfolio. Doing so not only provides additional information, but also increases the psychological impact of information on utility - an impact effect - and increases the speed of a utility reference point adjustment - a reference point updating effect. The main prediction of the model is that investors will check the value of their portfolios more frequently in rising markets but will quot;put their heads in the sandquot; when markets are flat or falling. We test and find support for this prediction with three Scandinavian data sets.




The 'Ostrich Effect' and the Relationship between the Liquidity and the Yields of Financial Assets


Book Description

This paper documents a puzzling observed anomaly in the relative value of a liquid and comparable illiquid asset. During a prolonged period of time Government T-bills provided a higher Yield to Maturity than an equally risky illiquid asset (bank deposits). This cannot be attributed to taxes, risk or transaction costs. We relate our finding to the literature on behavioral finance and, more specifically,to the Myopic Loss Aversion literature (MLA) that investigates the impact of the frequency of investment information flow on investment decisions. We suggest that the observed puzzle is due to the positive correlation between liquidity and the flow of market information. We use the term Ostrich Effect, to describe investor behavior, since ostriches are believed to treat apparently risky situations by pretending they do not exist. As predicted by the Ostrich Effect, we find that the difference between the return on the liquid asset relative to the illiquid asset is higher in periods of greater uncertainty.