Book Description

The book outlines the new working concept of geo-ecological forest monitoring at the present stage of global warming. For the first time, the full triad of monitoring in its classical definition is considered: «observation (state assessment) — control (prediction) — management (adaptation, feedback, regulation)». The monograph first reports a comprehensive topo-ecological prediction concept as a scientific and methodological basis of local monitoring of natural ecosystems under global climatic changes. The methods of local landscapeecological forecast developed by the author on the basis of empirical-statistical modeling are stated. The complex problem of local and regional response to global climate change, still poorly covered in domestic and foreign literature, has been studied. The mechanisms of local response to the global warming anticipated during the 21st century have been assessed by the example of forest ecosystems of the Volga River basin. The landscape-ecological analysis and forecast were carried out on specific examples, with the involvement of the mass of field factual material collected by the author and with the use of methods of empirical simulation of calculated predicted situations. Forecasts of changes in the biological cycle, including the productivity of forests, are given. Analytical and cartographic models of the functional stability of forest ecosystems are also presented. Quantitative predictive estimates of local and regional regulation of the carbon cycle by forest ecosystems are given for scenarios of modern global warming. One of the possible ways to achieve the environmental goals provided for by the Paris Agreement on climate change has been implemented. An experiment was conducted to numerically solve a dual problem: 1) absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere by forest communities during global warming and 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of the adsorption itself. For students, graduate students and young scientists as an educational and reference tool in the field of landscape ecology, environmental modeling and forecasting.