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The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

Author : Claudio Raddatz

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 53 pages

File Size : 28,55 MB

Release : 2024-03-29

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN :

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Book Description

We construct a country-level indicator capturing the extent to which aggregate bank credit growth originates from banks with a relatively riskier profile, which we label the Riskiness of Credit Origins (RCO). Using bank-level data from 42 countries over more than two decades, we document that RCO variations over time are a feature of the credit cycle. RCO also robustly predicts downside risks to GDP growth even after controlling for aggregate bank credit growth and financial conditions, among other determinants. RCO’s explanatory power comes from its relationship with asset quality, investor and banking sector sentiment, as well as future banking sector resilience. Our findings underscore the importance of bank heterogeneity for theories of the credit cycle and financial stability policy.



The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Author : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 39 pages

File Size : 13,5 MB

Release : 2019-09-27

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 151351377X

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Book Description

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.



Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 152 pages

File Size : 14,15 MB

Release : 2018-04-18

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484338294

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Book Description

The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.





Global Banks’ Dollar Funding: A Source of Financial Vulnerability

Author : Mr.Adolfo Barajas

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 50 pages

File Size : 40,7 MB

Release : 2020-07-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1513549146

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Book Description

Leading up to the global financial crisis, US dollar activity by global banks headquartered outside the United States played a crucial role in transmitting shocks originating in funding markets. Although post-crisis regulation has improved banking systems’ resilience, US dollar funding remains a global vulnerability, as evidenced by strains that reemerged in March 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. We show that shocks to US dollar funding costs lead to financial stress in the home economies of these global non-US banks, and to spillovers to borrowers, especially emerging economies. US dollar funding vulnerability amplifies these negative effects, while some policy-related factors act as mitigators, such as swap line arrangements between central banks and international reserve holdings. Thus, these vulnerabilities should be monitored and, to the extent possible, controlled.



Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 139 pages

File Size : 23,65 MB

Release : 2017-10-11

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484308395

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Book Description

The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.



Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Author : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 39 pages

File Size : 22,35 MB

Release : 2019-02-21

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484397010

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Book Description

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.



The Risks of Financial Institutions

Author : Mark Carey

Publisher : University of Chicago Press

Page : 669 pages

File Size : 31,9 MB

Release : 2007-11-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0226092984

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Book Description

Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.



Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 35 pages

File Size : 25,17 MB

Release : 2021-10-22

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1589063953

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Book Description

This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.



Global Waves of Debt

Author : M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher : World Bank Publications

Page : 403 pages

File Size : 44,70 MB

Release : 2021-03-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1464815453

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Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.