Book Description

The second chapter investigates local labor supply’s responses to demand shocks during the recession years in the context of China. Greater flexibility of the local labor market is an indicator of stronger local economies. The rationale is that states or regions within a country may receive asymmetric demand shocks, so that people from severely-hit regions may move towards less-affected regions, thus reducing the aggregate unemployment rate. It is convenient for economists to study the impacts of 2007 economic recession on countries other than the US, because this recession can be seen as an exogenous shock for other countries. I try to isolate the impacts of this demand shock on different local labor supply responses by examining pre- and post-recession effects. Specifically, the effects of employment changes on the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and migration are investigated. To deal with endogeneity, “Bartik-style” industrial mix and “Regress-M” are used as instrument variables to identify causal effects. Results show that the role of migration in alleviating negative demand shocks has decreased over time, which could be the consequence of government-led local development policy.