Three Essays on the Evaluation of Development Policies


Book Description

This dissertation focuses on the evaluation of three distinct developing country policies, which, despite having been implemented in different parts of the world, are uniformly relevant to the field of development economics as well as effective policy design. Consequently, each essay contributes to the literature in its own way, either by evaluating a new and innovative intervention, by enhancing the theoretical understanding of policy-relevant interactions between public and private investment behavior, or by assessing the effectiveness of a broadly implemented, but yet unevaluated development policy. The results of the individual essays therefore convey one common conclusion; that a truly effective development policy must review carefully how its components interact with the behavioral responses of beneficiaries to identify the pathways through which impacts can be achieved.Chapter 1 examines whether computer-assisted instruction has a positive impact on the cognitive development as well as literacy and numeracy skills of early grade students. The analysis focuses on an educational intervention implemented in the rural region of Eastern Zambia that integrated technology into classroom activity in order to mitigate weaknesses in teaching skills and address specific unmet student needs. Using two control groups to compare the program's success to both standard government schools and lower-quality community schools, a difference-in-difference approach combined with inverse propensity score weighting is used to identify impact. While the program is unable to significantly advantage students in treated schools with respect to literacy, numeracy, and cognitive skills, estimates indicate that the program does succeed in leveling out initial differences, especially in comparison to government school students. This leveling by the program is accomplished at a third of the cost of government schools. An analysis of the heterogeneous impact further shows that effects are stronger for grade two students than for first graders. This is potentially because benefits take time to accumulate or because computer-assisted instruction becomes more important in supporting teachers as teaching becomes more complex and requires more materials. These results drive home the importance of integration of technology into curriculum and teaching methodology and how this can be a cost effective means to improve student learning.Chapter 2 examines how public education expenditures affect household spending on schooling and provides new theoretical underpinnings that highlight the importance of incorporating models of household decision-making processes into policy design. The study takes advantage of two country cases, Indonesia and Peru, which offer sufficient variation in public expenditures at the local level, and therefore lend themselves to assessing the important effect of government education expenditures at the district level on household spending on schooling. Employing a fixed-effects regression and an instrumental variable approach in Indonesia and a pseudo-panel approach in Peru, results indicate that a 1% increase in public-level education expenditures per school is estimated to decrease household-level spending on schooling per school-aged child by approximately 0.5% in Indonesia and 0.04% in Peru. This suggests that government spending may crowd out private investment in schooling, which represents an important indirect effect of any educational policy and can potentially diminish policy effectiveness. A closer look at household expenditures revealed that the specific (country) context will determine how parents reallocate their resources in response to changes in public spending levels.Lastly, Chapter 3 presents the first rigorous impact evaluation of a shoreline stabilization program in Barbados and attempts to assess whether shoreline stabilization investments indeed have beneficial effects on medium-term economic growth in Small Island Developing States through stimulating tourism demand and real estate development. The analysis relies on a carefully designed geographic information systems (GIS) dataset, which comprises extensive panel data from Barbados' touristic West and South Coasts on key infrastructure, beach characteristics, and real estate activity, as well as remotely-sensed luminosity data as a proxy of economic growth. The synthetic control method is employed to construct a counterfactual from a combination of all control beach sites and subsequently estimate program impact on per capita luminosity as a proxy for GDP per capita. Results indicate that even in the first three years after treatment, economic effects are positive and indicate a strong positive trend. This suggests that shoreline stabilization works may not only help preserve fragile ecological conditions, but further lead to sustainable growth in the local economy.




Evaluating Recipes for Development Success


Book Description

This paper provides a review of the contradictions and conflicts in the literature on economic governance and sketches an approach to use some of the conceptual and empirical findings from that literature for development policy. The literature offers conflicting conclusions on big questions: whether history and geography preordain a country's economic fate, whether democracy or authoritarianism promotes growth; whether informal or formal mechanisms are best; whether "big bang" or gradual transitions promote growth; and whether disasters and demographics are stumbling blocks or stepping stones. The author finds recipes for success that are infeasible, contradictory and shifting, and that ignore the role of luck in development policy. While the researcher may ask, "What creates success on average across countries?" the policymaker needs to know, "What is going wrong in this country and how can we put it right?" The author suggests a preliminary approach to combine the practitioner's detailed knowledge of country conditions with the broader patterns uncovered by scholars, building on "growth diagnostics" that identify binding constraints to development. But he shifts from the sequential "decision tree" framework to a more directly "diagnostic" approach that recognizes that policymakers must deal with many factors simultaneously. The framework he suggests combines empirical information on potential causes, estimates of their probabilities, and observed effects. He proposes this framework as the foundation, not for another recipe, but for a broader mode of thought to tackle the complexity and variance in development processes and patterns across countries and time-one country at a time.







Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality


Book Description

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.







Three Essays in Development Economics


Book Description

This dissertation consists of three essays on development economics. I use data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) to analyze individual decisions and to investigate the underlying factor determining their decisions.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




Dissent on Development


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Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development


Book Description

This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.