› › Towards A Financial Statement Based Approach To Modeling Systemic Risk In Insurance And Banking

Towards a Financial Statement Based Approach to Modeling Systemic Risk in Insurance and Banking

Author : Garud Iyengar

Publisher :

Page : 70 pages

File Size : 42,55 MB

Release : 2017

Category :

ISBN :

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Book Description

One of the important limitations of the SRISK measure of systemic risk, proposed by Brownlees and Engle and Acharya, Engle and Richardson, is its reliance on stock market data without much validation against the institutions' fundamentals based on its financial statements. We propose a financial statement based approach to estimating the vulnerability of an institution to a systemic event (labeled CRISK). We illustrate our approach for three business models: a life insurer (Prudential), a property and casualty insurer (Chubb) and an investment bank (J.P. Morgan Chase). We also validate CRISK using AIG's capital shortfall during the 2008 financial crisis. Our approach reveals that SRISK is likely to (i) overstate (misstate) capital requirements for life insurers (P&C insurers); and (ii) to overstate capital requirements for banks heavily reliant on FDIC insured deposits. We recommend using the market based SRISK measure as a first cut filter to identify systemically important institutions. The analyst can refine the list and validate the expected capital shortfall number using CRISK or a detailed financial statement analysis of the kind we advocate in this paper.



Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

Author : Mr.Raphael A Espinoza

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 39 pages

File Size : 35,28 MB

Release : 2020-03-13

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1513536176

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Book Description

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.



Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 93 pages

File Size : 36,95 MB

Release : 2013-02-27

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475557531

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Book Description

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.



Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL)

Author : Andreas Jobst

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 70 pages

File Size : 27,11 MB

Release : 2012-08-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475505590

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Book Description

Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.



Quantifying Systemic Risk

Author : Joseph G. Haubrich

Publisher : University of Chicago Press

Page : 286 pages

File Size : 20,82 MB

Release : 2013-01-24

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0226319288

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Book Description

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.





The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I

Author : Luc Nijs

Publisher : Springer Nature

Page : 822 pages

File Size : 18,73 MB

Release : 2020-06-30

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 3030347435

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Book Description

This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.





Risk Topography

Author : Markus Brunnermeier

Publisher : University of Chicago Press

Page : 286 pages

File Size : 21,25 MB

Release : 2014-10-17

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 022609264X

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Book Description

The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.



Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 135 pages

File Size : 43,36 MB

Release : 2016-04-11

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1498363288

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Book Description

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.