Mexican Banking and Investment in Transition


Book Description

Banking and investment in Mexico have changed radically over the past decade, and the economic events that prompted these changes will have a significant impact on Mexico's role in regional and world financial markets. Adams traces the evolution of Mexico's banking and investment activities, reviews current conditions and their implications for future investment opportunities in Mexico, and makes clear that what happens to Mexico's economy and political stability will have major implications for what happens elsewhere in the world. One of the first books to look at banking and investment in Mexico after the peso crash of 1994-1995, with a highly detailed bibliography and notes, Adams's study will be important reading for international business, finance, and investment professionals and for their colleagues with similar interests throughout the academic community. The fate of both Mexico and the United States is that the two countries are forever tied by geography. The historical evolution of the dual interaction between the peoples of these two nations is and will be significant for the future of both countries. With this in mind, the book is divided into chapters reviewing such themes as the interaction and historical financial events that transpired during the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the expansion of cross-border financial and investment services, as well as a framework and background review of the events leading up to and resulting from the devaluations of the 1970s and 1980s, and more recently the evolution of the peso crisis of 1994-1995. The imperceptible yet gradual economic integration of the two economies has required time in developing, while not always being seamless in its implementation and transition. American macroeconomic policy has long had a direct impact on the economy of Mexico, as is evidenced by the impact of U.S. interest rates on the financial underpinnings of the Mexican treasury and the banking system to assist with the overall economic growth of the nation. An appreciation for the historically sensitive issues and perspectives, be they nationalization of the oil industry, immigration, or market access for foreign financial services, is paramount to a fuller understanding of doing business on both sides of the border.




Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields


Book Description

This paper examines the transmission of changes in the U.S. monetary policy to localcurrency sovereign bond yields of Brazil and Mexico. Using vector error-correction models, we find that the U.S. 10-year bond yield was a key driver of long-term yields in these countries, and that Brazilian yields were more sensitive to U.S. shocks than Mexican yields during 2010–13. Remarkably, the propagation of shocks from U.S. long-term yields was amplified by changes in the policy rate in Brazil, but not in Mexico. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that yields in both countries temporarily overshot the values predicted by the model in the aftermath of the Fed’s “tapering” announcement in May 2013. This study suggests that emerging markets will need to contend with potential spillovers from shifts in monetary policy expectations in the U.S., which often lead to higher government bond interest rates and bouts of volatility.







Mexico


Book Description

This paper discusses Mexico’s Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of Current Arrangement. Fiscal policy has stemmed the rise in the public debt ratio in the past two years; a very tight monetary policy stance has helped reduce headline inflation to the central bank’s target; and financial supervision and regulation are strong. The flexible exchange rate is playing a key role in the economy’s adjustment to external shocks. The Mexican economy, nonetheless, remains exposed to external risks, including renewed volatility in global financial markets, increased risk premia, and a sharp pull-back of capital from emerging markets, as well as continued uncertainty about Mexico’s trade relations with the United States. The new arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) will continue to play an important role in supporting the authorities’ macroeconomic strategy by providing insurance against tail risks and bolstering market confidence. The proposed new commitment and cancellation of the current arrangement would have a net positive impact on the Fund’s liquidity position.




Mexico


Book Description

Today Mexico is viewed as a success story in the management of economic adjustment and structural reform. Inflation is under control, capital and foreign investment are returning, and out growth has increased. Mexico's recovery, however, has been neither smooth nor rapid. In mid-1982, Mexico was in deep economic crisis compounded by an unfavorable international environment. Mexico was saddled with a large foreign debt, world interest rates were high, commercial banks had stopped lending, and the price for oil was dropping. Conditions at home were no better with rampant inflation, increasing capital flight, and chaos in financial and foreign exchange markets. To confront internal imbalances and accommodate adverse external conditions, Mexico adjusted its consumption and output, then sought new ways to foster growth. The crisis and adjustment imposed great hardship and demanded enormous discipline on the part of the government. This was accomplished without serious political or social disruption. In this book, Nora Lustig analyzes Mexico's economic evolution from the outset of the debt crisis in 1982 until the sweeping reforms began to bear fruit in the early 1990s. She explains the causes of the 1982 economic crisis and why it took Mexico "so long" to restore stability and growth. She also explores the question of the social costs of economic crisis and adjustment, and why the process may have been easier for Mexico than other debt-ridden countries. A discussion of the emerging role of the state in Mexico and the country's new outward-oriented development strategy is followed by an analysis of its search for greater economic integration with the United States and Canada. Selected by Choice as an Outstanding Book of 1992







Mexico and the Sexenio Curse


Book Description




East Asia and Latin America


Book Description

Focuses on two broad themes: economic and political connections between East Asia and Latin America, and similarities and differences in developmental paths and public policies.







World Economic Outlook, April 2014


Book Description

Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary accommodation. Emerging market economy policymakers must adopt measures to changing fundamentals, facilitate external adjustment, further monetary policy tightening, and carry out structural reforms. The report includes a chapter that analyzes the causes of worldwide decreases in real interest rates since the 1980s and concludes that global rates can be expected to rise in the medium term, but only moderately. Another chapter examines factors behind the fluctuations in emerging market economies’ growth and concludes that strong growth in China played a key role in buffering the effects of the global financial crisis in these economies.