South Africa: 2011 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa


Book Description

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.




The Prospect of Deep Free Trade Between the European Union and Ukraine


Book Description

This book examines the feasibility, content and likely economic impact of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. The authors find that a simple and shallow free trade agreement, adding only the elimination of tariffs on trade in goods to the conditions for Ukraine's accession to the WTO, is the most easily feasible option, but would yield only modest benefits for Ukraine and less still for the EU. By contrast, they argue that a deep free trade agreement with the EU, while posing more difficult issues of feasibility, could be a centerpiece of an economic strategy leading Ukraine into rapid growth. Politically, this step would be consistent with Ukraine's European choice and would also be of value to the EU economy in meeting the challenges of globalization and Asian competition. Contributors include T. Huw Edwards (Loughborough University), Ildar Gazizullin, Vira Nanivska, and Olga Shumylo (International Centre for Policy Studies, Kyiv), Daniel Müller-Jentsch (European Commission/World Bank Office for South-East Europe), Matthias Lücke (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Valeriy Pyatnytskiy (First Deputy Minister of Economy and European Integration, Ukraine), Andreas Schneider (CEPS), Rainer Schweickert (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), and Olexandr Shevtsov (United Nations Development Program, Ukraine).







Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises


Book Description

Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.




Corruption


Book Description

In an environment in which growth and employment prospects in many countries remain subdued and a number of high-profile corruption cases have fueled moral outrage, and amid a growing consensus that corruption can seriously undermine a country’s ability to deliver inclusive economic growth in a number of different areas, addressing corruption globally—in both developed and developing countries—has become increasingly urgent. When corruption impairs government functions, it can adversely affect a number of important determinants of economic performance, including macrofinancial stability, investment, human capital accumulation, and total factor productivity. Moreover, when systemic corruption affects virtually all state functions, distrust of government can become so pervasive that it can lead to violence, civil strife, and conflict, with devastating social and economic implications. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on corruption that arises from the abuse of public office for private gain, whether it manifests itself transactionally (for example, a bribe) or through powerful networks between business and government that effectively result in the privatization of public policy. While designing and implementing an anticorruption strategy requires change on many different levels, the IMF's experience in assisting member countries suggests that several elements need to be given priority: transparency, rule of law, and economic reform policies designed to eliminate excessive regulation. Perhaps most important, however, addressing corruption requires building effective institutions, with the clear objective of developing a competent civil service that takes pride in being independent of both private influence and public interference.




Republic of Belarus


Book Description

Belarus’s economy grew rapidly but remained vulnerable to external shocks. Under the IMF-supported program, Belarus avoided loss of output during the global recession, contained inflation, and increased gross reserves. The structural reform agenda focused on economic liberalization, a shift in investment from the housing sector to the tradable sector, a smaller role of the state, and the development of the financial sector. Post-program monitoring was proposed. Establishing a development bank to administer lending under government programs would free the central bank and commercial banks from quasi-fiscal activity.




Sovereign Debt Restructuring and the Law


Book Description

The book sheds light on the perhaps most important legal conundrum in the context of sovereign debt restructuring: the holdout creditor problem. Absent an international bankruptcy regime for sovereigns, holdout creditors may delay or even thwart the efficient resolution of sovereign debt crises by leveraging contractual provisions and, in an increasing number of cases, by seeking to enforce a debt claim against the sovereign in courts or international tribunals. Following an introduction to sovereign debt and its restructuring, the book provides the first comprehensive analysis of the holdout creditor problem in the context of the two largest sovereign debt restructuring operations in history: the Argentine restructurings of 2005 and 2010 and the 2012 Greek private sector involvement. By reviewing numerous lawsuits and arbitral proceedings initiated against Argentina and Greece across a dozen different jurisdictions, it distils the organizing principles for ongoing and future cases of sovereign debt restructuring and litigation. It highlights the different approaches judges and arbitrators have adopted when dealing with holdout creditors, ranging from the denial of their contractual right to repayment on human rights grounds to leveraging the international financial infrastructure to coerce governments into meeting holdouts’ demands. To this end, it zooms in on the role the governing law plays in sovereign debt restructurings, revisits the contemporary view on sovereign immunity from suit and enforcement in the international debt context, and examines how creditor rights are balanced with the sovereign’s interest in achieving debt sustainability. Finally, it advances a new genealogy of holdouts, distinguishing between official and private sector holdouts and discussing how the proliferation of new types of uncooperative creditors may affect the sovereign debt architecture going forward. While the book is aimed at practitioners and scholars dealing with sovereign debt and its restructuring, it should also provide the general reader with the understanding of the key legal issues facing countries in debt distress. Moreover, by weaving economic, financial, and political considerations into its analysis of holdout creditor litigation and arbitration, the book also speaks to policymakers without a legal background engaged in the field of international finance and economics.




Republic of Poland


Book Description

The external sector has an increasing drag on the economy. The current account deficit remains fully financed by FDI, and the underlying balance is consistent with external-debt stabilizing levels. The stock market retrenchment has been severe, but it followed substantial gains since 2006. Stress tests show that resilience of the banking system is well capitalized and highly profitable. Executive Directors stressed that the key to boosting long-term growth will be to increase low labor market participation. The financial supervision authority should give priority to formalizing understandings.




Global Waves of Debt


Book Description

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.




Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy


Book Description

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries