Uncertain Hazards


Book Description

Drawing on interviews with activists and social movement theory in her analysis of the social construction of environmentalism, Tesh (political science, Yale U.) balances the views that such political- ethical activists are naive about science and that science fails to support their concerns about such hazards as pollution. She attributes this disconnect to changing "pre-environmentalist" ideas about nature informing relevant health research. Annotation copyrighted by Book News Inc., Portland, OR




Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment


Book Description

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction




Uncertain Risks Regulated


Book Description

The scientification of politics and the politicisation of science / Michelle Everson and Ellen Vos -- Opening pandora's box : contextualising the precautionary principle in the European Union / Elisabeth Fisher -- Uncertainties in regulating food safety in France / Julien Besanon and Olivier Borraz -- The origins of regulatory uncertainty in the UK food safety regime / Henry Rothstein -- The Dutch regulatory framework for food risk analysis based food law in the Netherlands / Bernd van der Meulen -- Food safety in Poland : standards, procedures and institutions / Aleksander Surdej and Karolina Zurek -- A default-logic model of factfinding for United States regulation of food safety / Vern Walker -- The French regulatory system on GMOs / Christine Noiville -- The UK regulatory system on GMOs : expanding the debate? / Maria Lee -- GMO regulation in the Netherlands : a story of hope, fear and the limits of poldering / Han Somsen -- The Polish regulatory system on GMOs : between EU influence and national nuances / Patrycja Dabrowska -- The regulation of environmental risks of GMOs in the United States / Michael Rodemeyer -- The EU regulatory system on food safety : between trust and safety / Ellen Vos -- The EU regulatory system for GMOs / Greg Shaffer and Mark Pollack -- European regulation of GMOs : thinking about judicial review in the WTO / Joanne Scott -- The Codex Alimentarius Commission and its food safety measures in the light of their new status / Marille matthee -- Three intimate tales of law and science : hope, despair and transcendence / Michelle Everson -- Science, knowledge and uncertainty in eu risk regulation / Marjolein van Asselt, Ellen Vos and Bram Rooijackers -- The role of scientific experts in risk regulation of foods / Harry Kuiper -- Inclusive risk governance through discourse, deliberation and participation / Andreas Klinke -- Sound science in the European and global market : Karl Polanyi in geneva / Christian Joerges.




Risk, Uncertainty and Profit


Book Description

A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.




Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards


Book Description

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.




Uncertain Hazards


Book Description

Ordinary citizens frequently organize around environmental issues on which little scientific evidence exists to back activists' claims. Should we then dismiss such claims as spurious? Or should we side with citizens against the polluters?Uncertain Hazards takes neither path. In exploring the all-too-common problem of scientific uncertainty about links between pollution and public health, Sylvia Noble Tesh shows that much of the problem can be traced to the newness of the environmental movement. The inability of scientists to find data corroborating citizens' claims stems partly from the "pre-environmentalist" assumptions still influencing the environmental health sciences, Tesh says. On the other hand, the conviction of activists that industrial pollutants threaten their health results from the environmental movement's success in promoting new ideas about nature. Tesh points to ways that environmentalist ideas have begun to affect science, thus making more likely the discovery of links between exposure to industrial pollutants and a community's health problems. Those ways include the expansion of diseases construed as environmental in cause, the study of society's most vulnerable citizens in determining safe levels of pollution, and a new focus on the effects of exposure to chemical mixtures.Using community activists' own words and experiences, Tesh argues against the familiar charge that activists are naive about science. It is inaccurate, she says, to characterize debates over the hazardous nature of pollution as debates between laypeople and experts Instead, they are debates between two groups of experts. It is also inaccurate, however, to see the conflict over environmental pollution only in scientific terms. The conflict has culturally important moral dimensions, and community activists draw heavily, although often unconsciously, on the lessons taught by environmentalism.




Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment


Book Description

The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.




Uncertainty and Risk


Book Description

This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.




Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action


Book Description

Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association




Playing against Nature


Book Description

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when – as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California – there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing. This book uses general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature