Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change


Book Description

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.




Patterns Identification and Data Mining in Weather and Climate


Book Description

Advances in computer power and observing systems has led to the generation and accumulation of large scale weather & climate data begging for exploration and analysis. Pattern Identification and Data Mining in Weather and Climate presents, from different perspectives, most available, novel and conventional, approaches used to analyze multivariate time series in climate science to identify patterns of variability, teleconnections, and reduce dimensionality. The book discusses different methods to identify patterns of spatiotemporal fields. The book also presents machine learning with a particular focus on the main methods used in climate science. Applications to atmospheric and oceanographic data are also presented and discussed in most chapters. To help guide students and beginners in the field of weather & climate data analysis, basic Matlab skeleton codes are given is some chapters, complemented with a list of software links toward the end of the text. A number of technical appendices are also provided, making the text particularly suitable for didactic purposes. The topic of EOFs and associated pattern identification in space-time data sets has gone through an extraordinary fast development, both in terms of new insights and the breadth of applications. We welcome this text by Abdel Hannachi who not only has a deep insight in the field but has himself made several contributions to new developments in the last 15 years. - Huug van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP, College Park, MD, U.S.A. Now that weather and climate science is producing ever larger and richer data sets, the topic of pattern extraction and interpretation has become an essential part. This book provides an up to date overview of the latest techniques and developments in this area. - Maarten Ambaum, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K. This nicely and expertly written book covers a lot of ground, ranging from classical linear pattern identification techniques to more modern machine learning, illustrated with examples from weather & climate science. It will be very valuable both as a tutorial for graduate and postgraduate students and as a reference text for researchers and practitioners in the field. - Frank Kwasniok, College of Engineering, University of Exeter, U.K.




Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences


Book Description

DEEP LEARNING FOR THE EARTH SCIENCES Explore this insightful treatment of deep learning in the field of earth sciences, from four leading voices Deep learning is a fundamental technique in modern Artificial Intelligence and is being applied to disciplines across the scientific spectrum; earth science is no exception. Yet, the link between deep learning and Earth sciences has only recently entered academic curricula and thus has not yet proliferated. Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences delivers a unique perspective and treatment of the concepts, skills, and practices necessary to quickly become familiar with the application of deep learning techniques to the Earth sciences. The book prepares readers to be ready to use the technologies and principles described in their own research. The distinguished editors have also included resources that explain and provide new ideas and recommendations for new research especially useful to those involved in advanced research education or those seeking PhD thesis orientations. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: An introduction to deep learning for classification purposes, including advances in image segmentation and encoding priors, anomaly detection and target detection, and domain adaptation An exploration of learning representations and unsupervised deep learning, including deep learning image fusion, image retrieval, and matching and co-registration Practical discussions of regression, fitting, parameter retrieval, forecasting and interpolation An examination of physics-aware deep learning models, including emulation of complex codes and model parametrizations Perfect for PhD students and researchers in the fields of geosciences, image processing, remote sensing, electrical engineering and computer science, and machine learning, Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences will also earn a place in the libraries of machine learning and pattern recognition researchers, engineers, and scientists.




Self-Organizing Maps


Book Description

The book we have at hand is the fourth monograph I wrote for Springer Verlag. The previous one named "Self-Organization and Associative Mem ory" (Springer Series in Information Sciences, Volume 8) came out in 1984. Since then the self-organizing neural-network algorithms called SOM and LVQ have become very popular, as can be seen from the many works re viewed in Chap. 9. The new results obtained in the past ten years or so have warranted a new monograph. Over these years I have also answered lots of questions; they have influenced the contents of the present book. I hope it would be of some interest and help to the readers if I now first very briefly describe the various phases that led to my present SOM research, and the reasons underlying each new step. I became interested in neural networks around 1960, but could not in terrupt my graduate studies in physics. After I was appointed Professor of Electronics in 1965, it still took some years to organize teaching at the uni versity. In 1968 - 69 I was on leave at the University of Washington, and D. Gabor had just published his convolution-correlation model of autoasso ciative memory. I noticed immediately that there was something not quite right about it: the capacity was very poor and the inherent noise and crosstalk were intolerable. In 1970 I therefore sugge~ted the auto associative correlation matrix memory model, at the same time as J.A. Anderson and K. Nakano.




Computational Science -- ICCS 2005


Book Description

The Fifth International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS 2005) held in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, May 22–25, 2005, continued in the tradition of p- vious conferences in the series: ICCS 2004 in Krakow, Poland; ICCS 2003 held simultaneously at two locations, in Melbourne, Australia and St. Petersburg, Russia; ICCS 2002 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and ICCS 2001 in San Francisco, California, USA. Computational science is rapidly maturing as a mainstream discipline. It is central to an ever-expanding variety of ?elds in which computational methods and tools enable new discoveries with greater accuracy and speed. ICCS 2005 wasorganizedasaforumforscientistsfromthecoredisciplinesofcomputational science and numerous application areas to discuss and exchange ideas, results, and future directions. ICCS participants included researchers from many app- cation domains, including those interested in advanced computational methods for physics, chemistry, life sciences, engineering, economics and ?nance, arts and humanities, as well as computer system vendors and software developers. The primary objectives of this conference were to discuss problems and solutions in allareas,toidentifynewissues,toshapefuturedirectionsofresearch,andtohelp users apply various advanced computational techniques. The event highlighted recent developments in algorithms, computational kernels, next generation c- puting systems, tools, advanced numerical methods, data-driven systems, and emerging application ?elds, such as complex systems, ?nance, bioinformatics, computational aspects of wireless and mobile networks, graphics, and hybrid computation.




The Regional Impacts of Climate Change


Book Description

Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.







Trends and Directions in Climate Research, Volume 1146


Book Description

This volume examines future strategies in meteorology and climatology that involves the whole atmospheric and related communities: scientists, service providers, manufacturers and users. While the central focus is the application of meteorology for society this volume also addresses a wide spectrum of scientific and application topics in atmospheric sciences – atmosphere and the water cycle, forecasting the weather from one day to one year ahead, climatology, and meteorology and society. NOTE: Annals volumes are available for sale as individual books or as a journal. For information on institutional journal subscriptions, please visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/nyas. ACADEMY MEMBERS: Please contact the New York Academy of Sciences directly to place your order (www.nyas.org). Members of the New York Academy of Science receive full-text access to the Annals online and discounts on print volumes. Please visit www.nyas.org/membership/main.asp for more information about becoming a member.




Climate Impacts on Energy Systems


Book Description

"While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."




Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research


Book Description

A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.