Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Physics


Book Description

The purpose of this book is to define the problem of weather prediction in the context of fundamental considerations rather than to enumerate ad hoc weather indicators or to build a statistical model based on historical data.




The Atmospheric Sciences


Book Description

Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisions--what to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more. This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators. How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability. Five subdisciplines--physics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate change--and their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.




Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather


Book Description

Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather provides a thorough and accessible presentation of machine learning techniques that can be employed by space weather professionals. Additionally, it presents an overview of real-world applications in space science to the machine learning community, offering a bridge between the fields. As this volume demonstrates, real advances in space weather can be gained using nontraditional approaches that take into account nonlinear and complex dynamics, including information theory, nonlinear auto-regression models, neural networks and clustering algorithms. Offering practical techniques for translating the huge amount of information hidden in data into useful knowledge that allows for better prediction, this book is a unique and important resource for space physicists, space weather professionals and computer scientists in related fields. - Collects many representative non-traditional approaches to space weather into a single volume - Covers, in an accessible way, the mathematical background that is not often explained in detail for space scientists - Includes free software in the form of simple MATLAB® scripts that allow for replication of results in the book, also familiarizing readers with algorithms







Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Physics


Book Description

The purpose of this book is to define the problem of weather prediction in the context of fundamental considerations rather than to enumerate ad hoc weather indicators or to build a statistical model based on historical data.




Forecast


Book Description

Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.




Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction


Book Description

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations




Mathematical Problems and Methods of Hydrodynamic Weather Forecasting


Book Description

The material provides an historical background to forecasting developments as well as introducing recent advances. The book will be of interest to both mathematicians and physicians, the topics covered include equations of dynamical meteorology, first integrals, non-linear stability, well-posedness of boundary problems, non-smooth solutions, parame




Weather Analysis and Forecasting


Book Description

Weather Analysis and Forecasting is a practical guide to using potential vorticity fields and water vapor imagery from satellites to elucidate complex weather patterns and train meteorologists to improve operational forecasting. In particular, it details the use of the close relationship between satellite imagery and the potential vorticity fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. It shows how to interpret water vapor patterns in terms of dynamical processes in the atmosphere and their relation to diagnostics available from weather prediction models. The book explores topics including: a dynamical view of synoptic development; the interpretation problem of satellite water vapor imagery; practical use of water vapor imagery and dynamical fields; significant water vapor imagery features associated with synoptic dynamical structures; and use of water vapor imagery for assessing NWP model behavior and improving forecasts. Applications are illustrated with color images based on real meteorological situations. The book's step-by-step pedagogy makes this an essential training manual for forecasters in meteorological services worldwide, and a valuable text for graduate students in atmospheric physics and satellite meteorology. * Shows how to analyze current satellite images for assessing weather models' behavior and improving forecasts * Provides step-by-step pedagogy for understanding and interpreting meteorological processes * Includes full-color throughout to highlight "real-world" models, patterns, and examples




Weather by the Numbers


Book Description

The history of the growth and professionalization of American meteorology and its transformation into a physics- and mathematics-based scientific discipline. For much of the first half of the twentieth century, meteorology was more art than science, dependent on an individual forecaster's lifetime of local experience. In Weather by the Numbers, Kristine Harper tells the story of the transformation of meteorology from a “guessing science” into a sophisticated scientific discipline based on physics and mathematics. What made this possible was the development of the electronic digital computer; earlier attempts at numerical weather prediction had foundered on the human inability to solve nonlinear equations quickly enough for timely forecasting. After World War II, the combination of an expanded observation network developed for military purposes, newly trained meteorologists, savvy about math and physics, and the nascent digital computer created a new way of approaching atmospheric theory and weather forecasting. This transformation of a discipline, Harper writes, was the most important intellectual achievement of twentieth-century meteorology, and paved the way for the growth of computer-assisted modeling in all the sciences.