Bootstrap Methods


Book Description

A practical and accessible introduction to the bootstrap method——newly revised and updated Over the past decade, the application of bootstrap methods to new areas of study has expanded, resulting in theoretical and applied advances across various fields. Bootstrap Methods, Second Edition is a highly approachable guide to the multidisciplinary, real-world uses of bootstrapping and is ideal for readers who have a professional interest in its methods, but are without an advanced background in mathematics. Updated to reflect current techniques and the most up-to-date work on the topic, the Second Edition features: The addition of a second, extended bibliography devoted solely to publications from 1999–2007, which is a valuable collection of references on the latest research in the field A discussion of the new areas of applicability for bootstrap methods, including use in the pharmaceutical industry for estimating individual and population bioequivalence in clinical trials A revised chapter on when and why bootstrap fails and remedies for overcoming these drawbacks Added coverage on regression, censored data applications, P-value adjustment, ratio estimators, and missing data New examples and illustrations as well as extensive historical notes at the end of each chapter With a strong focus on application, detailed explanations of methodology, and complete coverage of modern developments in the field, Bootstrap Methods, Second Edition is an indispensable reference for applied statisticians, engineers, scientists, clinicians, and other practitioners who regularly use statistical methods in research. It is also suitable as a supplementary text for courses in statistics and resampling methods at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics


Book Description

Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics brings together for the first time social scientists and engineers who present predictive theory of social organization, as a conglomerate of mating flows that morph in time to flow more easily. The book offers a new way to look at social phenomena as part of natural phenomena, and examines a new domain of application of engineering such as thermodynamic optimization, thermoeconomics and "design as science".




Evolution and Rationality


Book Description

This volume explores from multiple perspectives the subtle and interesting relationship between the theory of rational choice and Darwinian evolution. In rational choice theory, agents are assumed to make choices that maximize their utility; in evolution, natural selection 'chooses' between phenotypes according to the criterion of fitness maximization. So there is a parallel between utility in rational choice theory and fitness in Darwinian theory. This conceptual link between fitness and utility is mirrored by the interesting parallels between formal models of evolution and rational choice. The essays in this volume, by leading philosophers, economists, biologists and psychologists, explore the connection between evolution and rational choice in a number of different contexts, including choice under uncertainty, strategic decision making and pro-social behaviour. They will be of interest to students and researchers in philosophy of science, evolutionary biology, economics and psychology.




What the Luck?


Book Description

In Israel, pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse, while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better. It is an empirical fact that highly intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent. Students who get the highest scores in third grade generally get lower scores in fourth grade.And yet, it's wrong to conclude that screaming is not more effective in pilot training, women choose men whose intelligence does not intimidate them, or schools are failing third graders. In fact, there's one reason for each of these empirical facts: Statistics. Specifically, a statical concept called Regression to the Mean.Regression to the mean seeks to explain, with statistics, the role of luck in our day to day lives. An insufficient appreciation of luck and chance can wreak all kinds of mischief in sports, education, medicine, business, politics, and more. It can lead us to see illness when we are not sick and to see cures when treatments are worthless. Perfectly natural random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains--in clear, understandable, and witty prose--how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives...and can help us learn to rely less on random chance, and more on truth.




Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications


Book Description

A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.




Analyzing Categorical Data


Book Description

Categorical data arise often in many fields, including biometrics, economics, management, manufacturing, marketing, psychology, and sociology. This book provides an introduction to the analysis of such data. The coverage is broad, using the loglinear Poisson regression model and logistic binomial regression models as the primary engines for methodology. Topics covered include count regression models, such as Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated, and zero-truncated models; loglinear models for two-dimensional and multidimensional contingency tables, including for square tables and tables with ordered categories; and regression models for two-category (binary) and multiple-category target variables, such as logistic and proportional odds models. All methods are illustrated with analyses of real data examples, many from recent subject area journal articles. These analyses are highlighted in the text, and are more detailed than is typical, providing discussion of the context and background of the problem, model checking, and scientific implications. More than 200 exercises are provided, many also based on recent subject area literature. Data sets and computer code are available at a web site devoted to the text. Adopters of this book may request a solutions manual from: [email protected]. From the reviews: "Jeff Simonoff's book is at the top of the heap of categorical data analysis textbooks...The examples are superb. Student reactions in a class I taught from this text were uniformly positive, particularly because of the examples and exercises. Additional materials related to the book, particularly code for S-Plus, SAS, and R, useful for analysis of examples, can be found at the author's Web site at New York University. I liked this book for this reason, and recommend it to you for pedagogical purposes." (Stanley Wasserman, The American Statistician, August 2006, Vol. 60, No. 3) "The book has various noteworthy features. The examples used are from a variety of topics, including medicine, economics, sports, mining, weather, as well as social aspects like needle-exchange programs. The examples motivate the theory and also illustrate nuances of data analytical procedures. The book also incorporates several newer methods for analyzing categorical data, including zero-inflated Poisson models, robust analysis of binomial and poisson models, sandwich estimators, multinomial smoothing, ordinal agreement tables...this is definitely a good reference book for any researcher working with categorical data." Technometrics, May 2004 "This guide provides a practical approach to the appropriate analysis of categorical data and would be a suitable purchase for individuals with varying levels of statistical understanding." Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2004, 18 "This book gives a fresh approach to the topic of categorical data analysis. The presentation of the statistical methods exploits the connection to regression modeling with a focus on practical features rather than formal theory...There is much to learn from this book. Aside from the ordinary materials such as association diagrams, Mantel-Haenszel estimators, or overdispersion, the reader will also find some less-often presented but interesting and stimulating topics...[T]his is an excellent book, giving an up-to-date introduction to the wide field of analyzing categorical data." Biometrics, September 2004 "...It is of great help to data analysts, practitioners and researchers who deal with categorical data and need to get a necessary insight into the methods of analysis as well as practical guidelines for solving problems." International Journal of General Systems, August 2004 "The author has succeeded in writing a useful and readable textbook combining most of general theory and practice of count data." Kwantitatieve Methoden "The book especially stresses how to analyze and interpret data...In fact, the highly detailed multi-page descriptions of analysis and interpretation make the book stand out." Mathematical Geology, February 2005 "Overall, this is a competent and detailed text that I would recommend to anyone dealing with the analysis of categorical data." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "This important work allows for clear analogies between the well-known linear models for Gaussian data and categorical data problems. ... Jeffrey Simonoff’s Analyzing Categorical Data provides an introduction to many of the important ideas and methods for understanding counted data and tables of counts. ... Some readers will find Simonoff’s style very much to their liking due to reliance on extended real data examples to illuminate ideas. ... I think the extensive examples will appeal to most students." (Sanford Weisberg, SIAM Review, Vol. 47 (4), 2005) "It is clear that the focus of Simonoff’s book is different from other books on categorical data analysis. ... As an introductory textbook, the book is comprehensive enough since all basic topics in categorical data analysis are discussed. ... I think Simonoff’s book is a valuable addition to the literature because it discusses important models for counts ... ." (Jeroen K. Vermunt, Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 24, 2005) "The author based this book on his notes for a class with a very diverse pool of students. The material is presented in such a way that a very heterogeneous group of students could grasp it. All methods are illustrated with analyses of real data examples. The author provides a detailed discussion of the context and background of the problem. ... The book is very interesting and can be warmly recommended to people working with categorical data." (EMS - European Mathematical Society Newsletter, December, 2004) "Categorical data arise often in many fields ... . This book provides an introduction to the analysis of such data. ... All methods are illustrated with analyses of real data examples, many from recent subject-area journal articles. These analyses are highlighted in the text and are more detailed than is typical ... . More than 200 exercises are provided, including many based on recent subject-area literature. Data sets and computer code are available at a Web site devoted to this text." (T. Postelnicu, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1028, 2003) "This book grew out of notes prepared by the author for classes in categorical data analysis. The presentation is fresh and compelling to read. Regression ideas are used to motivate the modelling presented. The book focuses on applying methods to real problems; many of these will be novel to readers of statistics texts ... . All chapters end with a section providing references to books or articles for the inquiring reader." (C.M. O’Brien, Short Book Reviews, Vol. 23 (3), 2003)




Analysis of Poverty Data by Small Area Estimation


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to implementing SAE methods for poverty studies and poverty mapping There is an increasingly urgent demand for poverty and living conditions data, in relation to local areas and/or subpopulations. Policy makers and stakeholders need indicators and maps of poverty and living conditions in order to formulate and implement policies, (re)distribute resources, and measure the effect of local policy actions. Small Area Estimation (SAE) plays a crucial role in producing statistically sound estimates for poverty mapping. This book offers a comprehensive source of information regarding the use of SAE methods adapted to these distinctive features of poverty data derived from surveys and administrative archives. The book covers the definition of poverty indicators, data collection and integration methods, the impact of sampling design, weighting and variance estimation, the issue of SAE modelling and robustness, the spatio-temporal modelling of poverty, and the SAE of the distribution function of income and inequalities. Examples of data analyses and applications are provided, and the book is supported by a website describing scripts written in SAS or R software, which accompany the majority of the presented methods. Key features: Presents a comprehensive review of SAE methods for poverty mapping Demonstrates the applications of SAE methods using real-life case studies Offers guidance on the use of routines and choice of websites from which to download them Analysis of Poverty Data by Small Area Estimation offers an introduction to advanced techniques from both a practical and a methodological perspective, and will prove an invaluable resource for researchers actively engaged in organizing, managing and conducting studies on poverty.




Statistics for Business and Financial Economics


Book Description

This text integrates various statistical techniques with concepts from business, economics and finance, and demonstrates the power of statistical methods in the real world of business. This edition places more emphasis on finance, economics and accounting concepts with updated sample data.