Book Description

This rport compares five major long-term forecasts prepared under similar assumptions by: Professor George Dantzig's PILOT Process Integrated Model/Welfare Equilibrium Model system (PILOT); Professor Alan S. Manne's ETA-MACRO energy-economy model system; The combined Brookhaven National Laboratory/Dale W. Jorgenson Associates (BNL/DJA) energy-economy model system; The FOSSIL2 energy model operated by the Office of Policy and Evaluation in the Department of Energy; The Long-range Energy Analysis Package energy model ARC-78 (LEAP), operated by the Energy Informaion Administration in the Department of Energy. After summarizing the method of preparation of each forecast, the report compares the results in detail and explains the differences both in terms of data assumptions and methodological approach.