Toll Road Traffic and Revenue Forecasts


Book Description

Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.







Assessing Highway Tolling and Pricing Options and Impacts


Book Description

"TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 722: Assessing Highway Tolling and Pricing Options and Impacts provides state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other transportation agencies with a decision-making framework and analytical tools that describe likely impacts on revenue generation and system performance resulting from instituting or modifying user-based fees or tolling on segments of their highway system. Volume 2: Travel Demand Forecasting Tools provides an in-depth examination of the various analytical tools for direct or adapted use that are available to help develop the forecasts of potential revenue, transportation demand, and congestion and system performance based on tolling or pricing changes. Volume 1: Decision-Making Framework includes information on a decision-making framework that may be applied to a variety of scenarios in order to understand the potential impacts of tolling and pricing on the performance of the transportation system, and on the potential to generate revenue to pay for system improvements"--Publication information.



















Toll Forecasting - the Developers Perspective


Book Description

Governments today face substantial challenges to maintain or expand roadway infrastructure in light of increasing pressure to retain/improve social programs, while reducing debt. The resulting diversion of traditional funding levels away from roadway projects potentially precludes lifecycle extensions and service improvements needed to support economic development. Current trends to defer, or do nothing, in order to reduce infrastructure expenditures cannot continue. Clearly, a need exists for financing alternatives to fund current and future initiatives. One method to finance roadway projects is to collect tolls. The recent trend in toll road development in Canada reflects the need to balance highway network expansion without increasing public debt. While toll roads are not new to Canada -- Yonge street extending north of Toronto, Ontario was operated as a toll road from the 1830's to the 1890's -- the approach to developing these facilities has evolved into a complex pre-bid assessment of reward and assumed risk. Developers bidding on these toll road initiatives are often provided with traffic forecasts by the government road authority during the proposal call. These forecasts, generally prepared by/for the owner to confirm the viability of a preconceived highway configuration, are often not truly reflective of the needs of the Developer. This paper has been prepared to explore the Developer's perspective on toll road forecasts, based on the recent experience of Canada's most prominent toll road provider/operator, Canadian Highways International Corporation and its consultant partners, Proctor & Redfern Limited of Toronto (engineering/ forecasting), BZW of New York (financing), and ICON Systems Limited of Toronto (engineering). For the covering abstract of this conference see IRRD number 872978.