A Risk-informed Decision Making Framework Accounting for Early-phase Conceptual Design of Complex Systems


Book Description

A gap exists in the methods used in industry and available in academia that prevents customers and engineers from having a voice when considering engineering risk appetite in the dynamic shaping of early-phase conceptual design trade study outcomes. Current methods used in Collaborative Design Centers either collect risk information after a conceptual design has been created, treat risk as an afterthought during the trade study process, or do not consider risk at all during the creation of conceptual designs. This dissertation proposes a risk-informed decision making framework that offers a new way to account for risk and make decisions based upon risk information within conceptual complex system design trade studies. A meaningful integration of the consideration of risk in trade studies is achieved in this framework thus elevating risk to the same level as other important system-level design parameters. Trade-offs based upon risk appetites of individuals are explicitly allowed under the framework, enabled by an engineering-specific psychometric risk survey that provides aspirational information to use in utility functions. This dissertation provides a novel framework and supporting methodologies for risk-informed design decisions and trades to be made that are based upon engineering risk appetites in conceptual design trade studies.




Overview of risk-informed decision-making processes


Book Description

The authors introduce the general concepts, definitions and issues related to the use of Risk-informed decision-making (RIDM). These are structured processes which assist decision-makers when faced with high impact, complex decisions involving multiple objectives and the presence of uncertainty. They aim to ensure that decisions between competing alternatives are taken with an awareness of the risks associated with each option, and that all attributes of a decision are considered in an integrated manner. Motivations for the use of these techniques as a complement to more traditional deterministic approaches to risk assessment are provided. The RIDM processes adopted by NASA and by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission are described in detail, with an analysis of commonalities and differences in approach.




Enabling Safety-informed Design Decision Making Through Simulation, Reasoning and Analysis


Book Description

While many organizations claim to "put safety first," safety is rarely considered early in the design process when system-level architectural decisions are made. Instead, system design follows an abstraction-to-detail process to first meet functional and then performance requirements. Following this process, safety assurance occurs in the later stages of design through a rigorous expert review process. The significant cost of safety-based redesign and the growing complexity of engineered systems motivates a need for early design-stage fault analysis. This research presents a novel method of including safety into the model-based design and analysis of complex systems using low-fidelity behavior simulations. Specifically, this research demonstrates the adaption of the functional design process to explicitly include the system property of safety in the system representation. Next, early design fault analysis is extended to connect component failure behavior to system-level hazards. Finally, this research develops three methods of results clustering to provide different evaluation metrics of the system design. In summary, this research demonstrates a framework for incorporating safety into early design decision making. This research addresses safety and failure in the design of complex systems incorporating diverse technology domains as found in energy, transportation, and aerospace systems.







Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design


Book Description

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.










Manual on Oil Spill Risk Evaluation and Assessment of Response Preparedness


Book Description

Manual on Oil Spill Risk Evaluation and Assessment of Response Preparedness, 2009 Edition. This Manual provides: information on oil spill risk evaluation and assessment for the development of preparedness and response; guidance for industry and governments, particularly those of developing countries, in assessing risk and the adequacy of contingency plans; and suggestions on how to resolve the potentially complex and varied issues of the assessment process




Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists


Book Description

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.




Artificial Intelligence in Accounting


Book Description

Artificial intelligence (AI) and Big Data based applications in accounting and auditing have become pervasive in recent years. However, research on the societal implications of the widespread and partly unregulated use of AI and Big Data in several industries remains scarce despite salient and competing utopian and dystopian narratives. This book focuses on the transformation of accounting and auditing based on AI and Big Data. It not only provides a thorough and critical overview of the status-quo and the reports surrounding these technologies, but it also presents a future outlook on the ethical and normative implications concerning opportunities, risks, and limits. The book discusses topics such as future, human-machine collaboration, cybernetic approaches to decision-making, and ethical guidelines for good corporate governance of AI-based algorithms and Big Data in accounting and auditing. It clarifies the issues surrounding the digital transformation in this arena, delineates its boundaries, and highlights the essential issues and debates within and concerning this rapidly developing field. The authors develop a range of analytic approaches to the subject, both appreciative and sceptical, and synthesise new theoretical constructs that make better sense of human-machine collaborations in accounting and auditing. This book offers academics a variety of new research and theory building on digital accounting and auditing from and for accounting and auditing scholars, economists, organisations, and management academics and political and philosophical thinkers. Also, as a landmark work in a new area of current policy interest, it will engage regulators and policy makers, reflective practitioners, and media commentators through its authoritative contributions, editorial framing and discussion, and sector studies and cases.