The Demographic Transition


Book Description

Demographic transition constitutes one of the most fundamental modern historical changes; people live much longer, have fewer children, and experience higher mobility. This book examines the basic mechanisms behind the modernisation of demographic behaviour. The author has marshalled an impressive array of statistical material relating to sixty-seven countries, half of them less developed countries. Most of the tables are time-series, covering many decades and sometimes go back to the nineteenth, and even eighteenth centuries. The whole sweep of western experience is dealt with here impartially. Though technically sophisticated, the book also covers issues of interpretation and analysis. The author puts forward a number of challenging propositions: mortality decrease is shown to necessarily precede fertility and decline, so-called execptions being simply false exceptions. He shows how the decline of fertility is dependent on important and manifold social transformations. The strong connections between international migration and the course of demographic transition are demonstrated, as is the fact that less developed countries are following the same general patterns as MDCs. There is also discussion of why the theory of demographic transition must include the effect of population changes on the economic progress of society.




Demography and the Economy


Book Description

Demographics is a vital field of study for understanding social and economic change and it has attracted attention in recent years as concerns have grown over the aging populations of developed nations. Demographic studies help make sense of key aspects of the economy, offering insight into trends in fertility, mortality, immigration, and labor force participation, as well as age, gender, and race specific trends in health and disability. Demography and the Economy explores the connections between demography and economics, paying special attention to what demographic trends can reveal about the sustainability of traditional social security programs and the larger implications for economic growth. The volume brings together some of the leading scholars working at the border between the two disciplines, and it provides an eclectic overview of both fields. Contributors also offer deeper analysis of a variety of issues such as the impact of greater wealth on choices about marriage and childbearing and the effects of aging populations on housing prices, Social Security, and Medicare.




The Decline of Fertility in Europe


Book Description

This volume summarizes the major findings of the Princeton European Fertility Project. The Project, begun in 1963, was a response to the realization that one of the great social revolutions of the last century, the remarkable decline in marital fertility in Europe, was still poorly understood. Originally published in 1986. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.




Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting


Book Description

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.




Literacy Scores, Human Capital and Growth Across Fourteen OECD Countries


Book Description

This paper develops a measure of investment in education from the literacy level of labour market entrants, using the 1994 International Adult Literacy Survey.







Population Aging and the Generational Economy


Book Description

'While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.' – H.I. Liebling, Choice 'Ron Lee and Andrew Mason's Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.' – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US 'The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson's framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.' – Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US 'Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!' – David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.' – Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe. The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike. This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.




The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia


Book Description

Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.




Human Capital Investment


Book Description

In 1965, a family-reunification policy for admitting immigrants to the United States replaced a system that chose immigrants based on their national origin. With this change, a 40-year hiatus in Asian immigration ended. Today, over three-quarters of US immigrants originate from Asia and Latin America. Two issues that dominate discussions of US immigration policy are the progress of post-reform immigrants and their contributions to the US economy. This book focuses on the earnings and human capital investment of Asian immigrants to the US after 1965. In addition, it provides a primer on studying immigrant economic assimilation, by explaining economists’ methodology to measure immigrant earnings growth and the challenges with this approach. The book also illustrates strategies to more fully use census data such as how to measure family income and how to use “panel data” that is embedded in the census. The book is a historical study as well as an extremely timely work from a policy angle. The passage of the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act set the United States apart among economically developed countries due to the weight given to family unification. Based on analyses by economists—which suggest that the quality of immigrants to the US fell after the 1965 law—policymakers have called for fundamental changes in the US system to align it with the immigration systems of other countries. This book offers an alternative view point by proposing a richer model that incorporates investments in human capital by immigrants and their families. It challenges the conventional model in three ways: First, it views the decline in immigrants’ entry earnings after 1965 as due to investment in human capital, not to permanently lower “quality.” Second, it adds human capital investment and earnings growth after entry to the model. And finally, by taking investments by family members into account, it challenges the policy recommendation that immigrants should be selected for their occupational qualifications rather than family connections.




Demographic Change and Long-Run Development


Book Description

Recent approaches to economic demography, investigating the effect of the transition to low mortality and low fertility on economic development. Over the last two hundred years, mortality and fertility levels in the Western world have dropped to unprecedented levels. This demographic transition was accompanied by an economic transition that led to widespread education and economic growth after centuries of near-stagnation. At the same time, other changes have occurred in family structures, culture, and the organization of society. Economists have only recently begun to take into account the demographic transition from high mortality and high fertility when modeling and researching economic development. This CESifo volume reviews recent approaches to economic demography, considering such topics as the bio-geographic origins of comparative development differences, the role of health improvements and mortality decline, as well as physiological, familial, cultural, and social aspects. After an overview of the study of demography and economic demography, the chapters cover subjects including the Neolithic era and the period of the formation of states and social institutions; longevity and economic growth; household decision making and fertility; land inequality, education, and marriage in nineteenth century Prussia; and caste systems and technology in pre-modern societies. The book concludes with a call for further investigation of the institutional and social factors that influence demographics and economies, suggesting that unified growth theory offers a potential approach to studying development. Contributors Matteo Cervellati, Francesco Cinnirella, David de la Croix, Carl-Johann Dalgaard, Matthias Doepke, Elena Esposito, Davide Fiaschi, Tamara Fioroni, Oded Galor, Boris Gershman, Erik Hornung, Fabian Kindermann, Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, Holger Strulik, Uwe Sunde, David N. Weil