Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management


Book Description

Credit is essential in the modern world and creates wealth, provided it is used wisely. The Global Credit Crisis during 2008/2009 has shown that sound understanding of underlying credit risk is crucial. If credit freezes, almost every activity in the economy is affected. The best way to utilize credit and get results is to understand credit risk. Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management helps the reader to understand the various nuances of credit risk. It discusses various techniques to measure, analyze and manage credit risk for both lenders and borrowers. The book begins by defining what credit is and its advantages and disadvantages, the causes of credit risk, a brief historical overview of credit risk analysis and the strategic importance of credit risk in institutions that rely on claims or debtors. The book then details various techniques to study the entity level credit risks, including portfolio level credit risks. Authored by a credit expert with two decades of experience in corporate finance and corporate credit risk, the book discusses the macroeconomic, industry and financial analysis for the study of credit risk. It covers credit risk grading and explains concepts including PD, EAD and LGD. It also highlights the distinction with equity risks and touches on credit risk pricing and the importance of credit risk in Basel Accords I, II and III. The two most common credit risks, project finance credit risk and working capital credit risk, are covered in detail with illustrations. The role of diversification and credit derivatives in credit portfolio management is considered. It also reflects on how the credit crisis develops in an economy by referring to the bubble formation. The book links with the 2008/2009 credit crisis and carries out an interesting discussion on how the credit crisis may have been avoided by following the fundamentals or principles of credit risk analysis and management. The book is essential for both lenders and borrowers. Containing case studies adapted from real life examples and exercises, this important text is practical, topical and challenging. It is useful for a wide spectrum of academics and practitioners in credit risk and anyone interested in commercial and corporate credit and related products.




Advanced Credit Risk Analysis


Book Description

Advanced Credit Analysis presents the latest and most advanced modelling techniques in the theory and practice of credit risk pricing and management. The book stresses the logic of theoretical models from the structural and the reduced-form kind, their applications and extensions. It shows the mathematical models that help determine optimal collateralisation and marking-to-market policies. It looks at modern credit risk management tools and the current structuring techniques available with credit derivatives.




Advanced Financial Risk Management


Book Description

Practical tools and advice for managing financial risk, updated for a post-crisis world Advanced Financial Risk Management bridges the gap between the idealized assumptions used for risk valuation and the realities that must be reflected in management actions. It explains, in detailed yet easy-to-understand terms, the analytics of these issues from A to Z, and lays out a comprehensive strategy for risk management measurement, objectives, and hedging techniques that apply to all types of institutions. Written by experienced risk managers, the book covers everything from the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding to the wide variety of alternative term structure models. Revised and updated with lessons from the 2007-2010 financial crisis, Advanced Financial Risk Management outlines a framework for fully integrated risk management. Credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management, and performance measurement have historically been thought of as separate disciplines, but recent developments in financial theory and computer science now allow these views of risk to be analyzed on a more integrated basis. The book presents a performance measurement approach that goes far beyond traditional capital allocation techniques to measure risk-adjusted shareholder value creation, and supplements this strategic view of integrated risk with step-by-step tools and techniques for constructing a risk management system that achieves these objectives. Practical tools for managing risk in the financial world Updated to include the most recent events that have influenced risk management Topics covered include the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding; American vs. European fixed income options; default probability models; prepayment models; mortality models; and alternatives to the Vasicek model Comprehensive and in-depth, Advanced Financial Risk Management is an essential resource for anyone working in the financial field.




Credit Risk Analytics


Book Description

The long-awaited, comprehensive guide to practical credit risk modeling Credit Risk Analytics provides a targeted training guide for risk managers looking to efficiently build or validate in-house models for credit risk management. Combining theory with practice, this book walks you through the fundamentals of credit risk management and shows you how to implement these concepts using the SAS credit risk management program, with helpful code provided. Coverage includes data analysis and preprocessing, credit scoring; PD and LGD estimation and forecasting, low default portfolios, correlation modeling and estimation, validation, implementation of prudential regulation, stress testing of existing modeling concepts, and more, to provide a one-stop tutorial and reference for credit risk analytics. The companion website offers examples of both real and simulated credit portfolio data to help you more easily implement the concepts discussed, and the expert author team provides practical insight on this real-world intersection of finance, statistics, and analytics. SAS is the preferred software for credit risk modeling due to its functionality and ability to process large amounts of data. This book shows you how to exploit the capabilities of this high-powered package to create clean, accurate credit risk management models. Understand the general concepts of credit risk management Validate and stress-test existing models Access working examples based on both real and simulated data Learn useful code for implementing and validating models in SAS Despite the high demand for in-house models, there is little comprehensive training available; practitioners are left to comb through piece-meal resources, executive training courses, and consultancies to cobble together the information they need. This book ends the search by providing a comprehensive, focused resource backed by expert guidance. Credit Risk Analytics is the reference every risk manager needs to streamline the modeling process.




The Practice of Lending


Book Description

This book provides a comprehensive treatment of credit risk assessment and credit risk rating that meets the Advanced Internal Risk-Based (AIRB) approach of Basel II. Credit risk analysis looks at many risks and this book covers all the critical areas that credit professionals need to know, including country analysis, industry analysis, financial analysis, business analysis, and management analysis. Organized under two methodological approaches to credit analysis—a criteria-based approach, which is a hybrid of expert judgement and purely mathematical methodologies, and a mathematical approach using regression analysis to model default probability—the book covers a cross-section of industries including passenger airline, commercial real estate, and commercial banking. In three parts, the sections focus on hybrid models, statistical models, and credit management. While the book provides theory and principles, its emphasis is on practical applications, and will appeal to credit practitioners in the banking and investment community alongside college and university students who are preparing for a career in lending.




Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk


Book Description

In the last decade rating-based models have become very popular in credit risk management. These systems use the rating of a company as the decisive variable to evaluate the default risk of a bond or loan. The popularity is due to the straightforwardness of the approach, and to the upcoming new capital accord (Basel II), which allows banks to base their capital requirements on internal as well as external rating systems. Because of this, sophisticated credit risk models are being developed or demanded by banks to assess the risk of their credit portfolio better by recognizing the different underlying sources of risk. As a consequence, not only default probabilities for certain rating categories but also the probabilities of moving from one rating state to another are important issues in such models for risk management and pricing. It is widely accepted that rating migrations and default probabilities show significant variations through time due to macroeconomics conditions or the business cycle. These changes in migration behavior may have a substantial impact on the value-at-risk (VAR) of a credit portfolio or the prices of credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (D+CDOs). In Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk the authors develop a much more sophisticated analysis of migration behavior. Their contribution of more sophisticated techniques to measure and forecast changes in migration behavior as well as determining adequate estimators for transition matrices is a major contribution to rating based credit modeling. Internal ratings-based systems are widely used in banks to calculate their value-at-risk (VAR) in order to determine their capital requirements for loan and bond portfolios under Basel II One aspect of these ratings systems is credit migrations, addressed in a systematic and comprehensive way for the first time in this book The book is based on in-depth work by Trueck and Rachev




The Handbook of Credit Risk Management


Book Description

A comprehensive guide to credit risk management The Handbook of Credit Risk Management presents a comprehensive overview of the practice of credit risk management for a large institution. It is a guide for professionals and students wanting a deeper understanding of how to manage credit exposures. The Handbook provides a detailed roadmap for managing beyond the financial analysis of individual transactions and counterparties. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, the authors outline how to manage a portfolio of credit exposures--from origination and assessment of credit fundamentals to hedging and pricing. The Handbook is relevant for corporations, pension funds, endowments, asset managers, banks and insurance companies alike. Covers the four essential aspects of credit risk management: Origination, Credit Risk Assessment, Portfolio Management and Risk Transfer. Provides ample references to and examples of credit market services as a resource for those readers having credit risk responsibilities. Designed for busy professionals as well as finance, risk management and MBA students. As financial transactions grow more complex, proactive management of credit portfolios is no longer optional for an institution, but a matter of survival.




Credit Risk Management


Book Description

This book introduces to basic and advanced methods for credit risk management. It covers classical debt instruments and modern financial markets products. The author describes not only standard rating and scoring methods like Classification Trees or Logistic Regression, but also less known models that are subject of ongoing research, like e.g. Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks, or Fuzzy Inference Systems. The book also illustrates financial and commodity markets and analyzes the principles of advanced credit risk modeling techniques and credit derivatives pricing methods. Particular attention is given to the challenges of counterparty risk management, Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and the related regulatory Basel III requirements. As a conclusion, the book provides the reader with all the essential aspects of classical and modern credit risk management and modeling.




Standard & Poor's Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis


Book Description

An up-to-date, accurate framework for credit analysis and decision making, from the experts at Standard & Poor's "In a world of increasing financial complexity and shorter time frames in which to assess the wealth or dearth of information, this book provides an invaluable and easily accessible guide of critical building blocks of credit analysis to all credit professionals." --Apea Koranteng, Global Head, Structured Capital Markets, ABN AMRO "The authors do a fine job of combining latest credit risk management theory and techniques with real-life examples and practical application. Whether a seasoned credit expert or a new student of credit, this is a must read book . . . a critical part of anyone's risk management library." --Mark T. Williams, Boston University, Finance and Economics Department "At a time when credit risk is managed in a way more and more akin to market risk, Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides well-needed support, not only for credit analysts but also for practitioners, portfolio managers, CDO originators, and others who need to keep track of the creditworthiness of their fixed-income investments." --Alain Canac, Chief Risk Officer, CDC IXIS Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides professionals with the knowledge they need to systematically determine the operating and financial strength of a specific borrower, understand credit risks inherent in a wide range of corporate debt instruments, and then rank the default risk of that borrower. Focusing on fundamental credit risk, cash flow modeling, debt structure analysis, and other important issues, and including separate chapters on country risks, industry risks, business risks, financial risks, and management, it guides the reader through every step of traditional fundamental credit analysis. In a dynamic corporate environment, credit analysts cannot rely solely on financial statistical analysis, credit prediction models, or bond and stock price movements. Instead, a corporate credit analysis must supply loan providers and investors with more information and detail than ever before. On top of its traditional objective of assessing a firm's capacity and willingness to pay its financial obligations in a timely manner, a worthy credit analysis is now expected to assess recovery prospects of specific financial obligations should a firm become insolvent. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides practitioners with the knowledge and tools they need to address these changing requirements. Drawing on the unmatched global resources and capabilities of Standard & Poor's, this valuable book organizes its guidelines into three distinct components: Part I: Corporate Credit Risk helps analysts identify all the essential risks related to a particular firm, and measure the firm through both a financial forecast and benchmarking with peers Part II: Credit Risk of Debt Instruments explains the impact of debt instruments and debt structures on a firm's recovery prospects should it become insolvent Part III: Measuring Credit Risk presents a scoring system to assess the capacity and willingness of a firm to repay its debt in a timely fashion and to evaluate recovery prospects in the event of financial distress In addition, a fourth component--Cases in Credit Analysis--examines seven real-life studies to provide examples of the book's theory and procedures in practice. Senior Standard & Poor's analysts explore diverse cases ranging from North and South America to Europe and the Pacific Rim, on topics covering mergers (AT&T-Comcast, MGM-Mirage, Kellogg-Keebler), foreign ownership in a merger (Air New Zealand-Ansett-Singapore Airlines), sovereign issues (Repsol-YPF), peer comparisons (U.S. forestry), and recovery analysis (Yell LBO). Industry "Keys to Success" are identified and analyzed in each case, along with an explanation on how to interpret performance and come to a credit decision. While it is still true that ultimate credit decisions are highly subjective in nature, methodologies and thought processes can be repeatable from case to case. Fundamentals of Corporate Credit Analysis provides analysts with the knowledge and tools they need to systematically analyze a company, identify and analyze the most important factors in determining its creditworthiness, and ensure that more "science" than "art" is used in making the final credit decision.




Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling


Book Description

Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New MaterialThe recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modelin