Author : David L. Banks
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 39,35 MB
Release : 2015-06-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1498712401
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Author : Anca M. Hanea
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 39,74 MB
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3030464741
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author : David Bendel Hertz
Publisher :
Page : 326 pages
File Size : 33,52 MB
Release : 1984
Category :
ISBN : 9780835749589
Author : Anthony D. Joseph
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 15,33 MB
Release : 2019-02-21
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1107043468
This study allows readers to get to grips with the conceptual tools and practical techniques for building robust machine learning in the face of adversaries.
Author : Christoph Molnar
Publisher : Lulu.com
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 37,87 MB
Release : 2020
Category : Artificial intelligence
ISBN : 0244768528
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 172 pages
File Size : 17,3 MB
Release : 2009-01-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0309120284
The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Author : Ali E. Abbas
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 787 pages
File Size : 38,18 MB
Release : 2017-11-02
Category : Computers
ISBN : 1107161886
Are we safer from terrorism today and is our homeland security money well spent? This book offers answers and more.
Author : Nozer D. Singpurwalla
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 396 pages
File Size : 26,2 MB
Release : 2006-08-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0470060336
We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications. Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of “composite reliability”, or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk. Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.
Author : David Rios Insua
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 22,92 MB
Release : 2020-12-21
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 1000336220
Tackling the cybersecurity challenge is a matter of survival for society at large. Cyber attacks are rapidly increasing in sophistication and magnitude—and in their destructive potential. New threats emerge regularly, the last few years having seen a ransomware boom and distributed denial-of-service attacks leveraging the Internet of Things. For organisations, the use of cybersecurity risk management is essential in order to manage these threats. Yet current frameworks have drawbacks which can lead to the suboptimal allocation of cybersecurity resources. Cyber insurance has been touted as part of the solution – based on the idea that insurers can incentivize companies to improve their cybersecurity by offering premium discounts – but cyber insurance levels remain limited. This is because companies have difficulty determining which cyber insurance products to purchase, and insurance companies struggle to accurately assess cyber risk and thus develop cyber insurance products. To deal with these challenges, this volume presents new models for cybersecurity risk management, partly based on the use of cyber insurance. It contains: A set of mathematical models for cybersecurity risk management, including (i) a model to assist companies in determining their optimal budget allocation between security products and cyber insurance and (ii) a model to assist insurers in designing cyber insurance products. The models use adversarial risk analysis to account for the behavior of threat actors (as well as the behavior of companies and insurers). To inform these models, we draw on psychological and behavioural economics studies of decision-making by individuals regarding cybersecurity and cyber insurance. We also draw on organizational decision-making studies involving cybersecurity and cyber insurance. Its theoretical and methodological findings will appeal to researchers across a wide range of cybersecurity-related disciplines including risk and decision analysis, analytics, technology management, actuarial sciences, behavioural sciences, and economics. The practical findings will help cybersecurity professionals and insurers enhance cybersecurity and cyber insurance, thus benefiting society as a whole. This book grew out of a two-year European Union-funded project under Horizons 2020, called CYBECO (Supporting Cyber Insurance from a Behavioral Choice Perspective).
Author : C. A. Brebbia
Publisher : WIT Press
Page : 553 pages
File Size : 35,41 MB
Release : 2014-06-04
Category : Nature
ISBN : 1845647920
Containing papers presented at the 9th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation this book covers a series of important topics of current research interests and many practical applications. It is concerned with all aspects of risk management and hazard mitigation, associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards. The analysis and management of risk and the mitigation of hazards is of fundamental importance to planners and researchers around the world. We live in an increasingly complex society with the potential for disasters on a worldwide scale. Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, fires and others have always affected human societies. Man-made hazards, however, played a comparatively small role a few centuries ago until the risk of catastrophic events started to increase due to the rapid growth of new technologies. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic risks adds to the complexity of the problem. Topics covered include: Risk assessment; Risk management; Hazard prevention, management and control; Early warning systems; Risk mapping; Natural hazards; Disaster management; Vulnerability assessment; Health risk; Debris flow and flood hazards; Case studies; Climate change; Safety and security; Evacuation simulation and design; Political and economic vulnerability.
