Aggregate Volatility and Market Jump Risk


Book Description

It is well documented that stock returns have different sensitivities to changes in aggregate volatility, however less is known about their sensitivity to market jump risk. By using Samp;P 500 crash-neutral at-the-money straddle and out-of-money put returns as proxies for aggregate volatility and market jump risk, I document significant differences between volatility and jump loadings of value versus growth, and small versus big portfolios. In particular, small (big) and value (growth) portfolios exhibit negative (positive) and significant volatility and jump betas. I also provide further evidence that both volatility and jump risk factors are priced and negative.




Aggregate Volatility Risk and Momentum Returns


Book Description

Momentum stocks are exposed to aggregate volatility risk. This paper estimates an EGARCH model of market volatility to introduce a new volatility risk factor that prices itself, and thereby becomes a candidate risk factor for analyzing stock market anomalies such as momentum. Winners have negative loadings on this new volatility factor, whereas losers have positive loadings. Since volatility risk carries a negative price of risk, the new factor helps explain 81% of momentum profits. The paper also rationalizes the volatility risk exposures of momentum portfolios and the short life of profits using event studies and growth option arguments.




Volatility


Book Description

Volatility is very much with us in today's equity markets. Day-to-day price swings are often large and intra-day volatility elevated, especially at market openings and closings. What explains this? What does this say about the quality of our markets? Can short-period volatility be controlled by better market design and a more effective use of electronic technology? Featuring insights from an international array of prominent academics, financial markets experts, policymakers and journalists, the book addresses these and other questions concerning this timely topic. In so doing, we seek deeper knowledge of the dynamic process of price formation, and of the market structure and regulatory environment within which our markets function. The Zicklin School of Business Financial Markets Series presents the insights emerging from a sequence of conferences hosted by the Zicklin School at Baruch College for industry professionals, regulators, and scholars. Much more than historical documents, the transcripts from the conferences are edited for clarity, perspective and context; material and comments from subsequent interviews with the panelists and speakers are integrated for a complete thematic presentation. Each book is focused on a well delineated topic, but all deliver broader insights into the quality and efficiency of the U.S. equity markets and the dynamic forces changing them.







Aggregate Volatility Risk and Momentum Returns


Book Description

"Momentum profits are generated by winners' exposure to aggregate volatility risk. A proxy for aggregate volatility shock (AVS) which comes from an EGARCH (1,1) model of monthly market excess returns is a priced risk factor in cross-sectional regressions and commands a negative risk premium. Winners have negative AVS loadings thereby earning higher average returns than do losers. Event time analyses reveal important insights about the temporary nature of momentum profits. For example, I find that winners have lower AVS loadings than do losers over the first 6 months of the holding period and that the difference in loadings becomes mostly insignicant thereafter. Another event-time study shows that the profitability of momentum strategies after up-market states can also be attributed to the difference in aggregate volatility risk. I explain the negative AVS loadings of winners with a real option argument. Over the evaluation period winner firms develop growth options and their market values become sensitive to aggregate demand conditions. AVS is a negative demand shock that causes investment cuts and downward revisions in future earnings. The decline in investment growth and thereby the loss in market value is more pronounced for winners. Moreover, the reversal of momentum returns one year after portfolio formation is partly explained by the negative cross-sectional relation between real investment and average returns. Additional robustness checks and comparison with conditional CAPM suggest that the ICAPM with aggregate volatility risk is an important multifactor model that accounts for the cross-sectional return variation of momentum stocks"--Page v.













An Analysis of Changes in Aggregate Stock Market Volatility


Book Description

General price studies on the level of volatility for aggregate stock market have derived conflicting results. Using daily stock price changes for the period 1926-1975, the paper examines the characteristics of the distribution of daily stock price changes. Subsequently we examined changes in several measures of stock price volatility. The results indicated significant changes over time and especially in 1973-1975.