The Making of National Economic Forecasts


Book Description

In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.




The Periphery of the Euro


Book Description

This book analyzes the monetary and exchange rate policies in Eastern European countries not covered by the current EU enlargement process. Specifically the book examines the major CIS countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine. (The new Eastern European EU members are also frequently referenced for comparison purposes.) Current and prospective monetary policy options are considered and the applicability of the EU monetary integration experience for the CIS countries and the prospects of a monetary re-unification around the Russian Federation are assessed. This is the first book to formally deal with many of these questions.




Transition


Book Description




China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach


Book Description

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.




Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.




Fostering Sustainable Growth in Ukraine


Book Description

by Anatoliy Kinakh, Prime Minister ofUkraine After a deep and long-lasting recession, the Ukrainian economy has for the past two years demonstrated some very positive dynamics in its quantitative development indicators. This is essentially the result of reforms, which still require to be consolidated in order to engage the factors and mechanisms capable of ensuring long-term qualitative and sustainable development in our economy. How do we ensure sustainable growth, and realise the improvements in the main macroeconomic indicators together with serious and complex improvements at the micro-level, which would allow us to achieve the urgently needed shifts in the social sphere? These actual problems are the main priorities of macroeconomic policy. Furthermore, the search for solutions to these problems of our transitional economy requires profound scientific analysis. The following presentations made at the Conference on "Factors of Economic Growth in Ukraine" are serious scientific contributions by prominent economists in this field.




Competitiveness and Private Sector Development: Ukraine 2011 Sector Competitiveness Strategy


Book Description

This review of competitiveness and private sector development in the Ukraine includes diagnosis and policy actions for policy makers and advisors, offering policy responses to underpin economic diversification, enhanced competitiveness and private sector development.




Hysteresis and Business Cycles


Book Description

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.




World Economic Outlook, April 2016


Book Description

Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.




Advances in Empirical Economic Research


Book Description

This volume presents new empirical methods and applications in economics with special interest in advances in empirical macroeconomics, microeconomics, financial economics, international economics, and agricultural economics. Featuring selected contributions from the 2022 International Conference of Applied Economics (ICOAE 2021), this book provides country specific studies with potential applications in economic policy. It is beneficial to researchers, scholars, academics and policy makers in quantitative economic research (in both methods and applications).