An Equilibrium Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates with the Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy


Book Description

In this paper I jointly derive the stochastic process of the price level, the inflation rate, the nominal and real term structures, as function of monetary, fiscal and technological parameters within a general equilibrium framework. The novelty of the present approach is given by the possibility of obtaining closed form solutions for all the variables and by the explicit design of fiscal policy as a crucial parameter in addition to monetary policy. Thus, as stated from FTPL, inflation is not uniquely a monetary phoenomenon, but also fiscal policy plays a crucial role in determining the position of the nominal spot curve and term structure of intererest rates. The risky factors of nominal and real term structures depend upon different factors, when the utility function is strongly separable in both output and real money balances. If not, monetary and fiscal parameters affect only nominal equilibrium. The principal realtionships derived of the model are then simulated for diffrent values of policy parameters. The main conclusion is that fiscal policy parameters play a crucial role in term structure patterns, as recently observed by the perfmance of nominal rates for some countries (like Italy, fore example) after having joined the EMU.







Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions: the Impact on the Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

In this paper I consider a General Equilibrium framework to evaluate the role and the importance of the interactions between Monetary and Fiscal policies in the sense outlined by Leeper (1991) and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, in the determination of nominal and real term structure. The main results show that the term structure will depend not only upon monetary and technological factors - as in the traditional models - but also upon the fiscal policy reaction function parameters. This aspect is very useful in explaining the recent experience of some countries, like Italy, whose term structure shifted down after the fiscal retrenchement imposed by Fiscal Rules of Maastricht Treaty. In this paper the term structure is derived by using a very general approach, starting from implicit assumptions on the driving stochastic processes of the model, rather than imposing a specific structure right from the beginning. The results are consistent with the more recent results outlined by Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and by monetary models of the term structure.




A Continuous-Time Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Fiscal-Monetary Policy Interactions


Book Description

We study the term structure implications of the fiscal theory of price level determination. We introduce the intertemporal budget constraint of the government in a general equilibrium model in continuous time. Fiscal policy is set according to a simple rule whereby taxes react proportionally to real debt. We show how to solve for the prices of real and nominal zero coupon bonds.




The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity


Book Description

This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.




Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates


Book Description

Macroeconomists want to understand the effects of fiscal policy on interest rates, while financial economists look for the factors that drive the dynamics of the yield curve. To shed light on both issues, we present an empirical macro-finance model that combines a no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a set of structural restrictions that allow us to identify fiscal policy shocks, and trace the effects of these shocks on the prices of bonds of different maturities. Compared to a standard VAR, this approach has the advantage of incorporating the information embedded in a large cross-section of bond prices. Moreover, the pricing equations provide new ways to assess the model's ability to capture risk preferences and expectations. Our results suggest that (i) government deficits affect long term interest rates: a one percentage point increase in the deficit to GDP ratio, lasting for 3 years, will eventually increase the 10-year rate by 40--50 basis points; (ii) this increase is partly due to higher expected spot rates, and partly due to higher risk premia on long term bonds; and (iii) the fiscal policy shocks account for up to 12% of the variance of forecast errors in bond yields.




Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies


Book Description

Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.