Uncertain Infant Mortality, Learning, and Life-Cycle Fertility


Book Description

This article examines the links between infant mortality and fertility in an environment with unobserved heterogeneity in infant mortality risk across mothers. In such an environment, replacement behavior (i.e., the fertility response to an experienced child death) might be influenced by mothers' learning about a family-specific component of infant mortality risk. I explicitly introduce learning by mothers in a dynamic stochastic model of life-cycle marital fertility, and I estimate the model's structural parameters using Malaysian panel data. The framework is used to estimate replacement rates and to correct for birth selectivity in the estimation of the relationship between infant mortality risk and health inputs.




A Stochastic Model of Mortality, Fertility and Human Capital Investment


Book Description

This paper examines the relationship between fertility and human capital investment and its implications for economic growth, focusing on the effects of declining mortality. Unlike the existing literature, this paper stresses the role of uncertainty about the number of surviving children. If the marginal utility of a surviving child is convex then there will be a precautionary demand for children. As the mortality rate and thus uncertainty falls, this demand decreases. Furthermore, lower mortality encourages educational investment in children. The key result is that this empirically observed quality-quantity trade-off is realized only if uncertainty is incorporated into an individual's optimization problem.




From Death to Birth


Book Description

The last 35 years or so have witnessed a dramatic shift in the demography of many developing countries. Before 1960, there were substantial improvements in life expectancy, but fertility declines were very rare. Few people used modern contraceptives, and couples had large families. Since 1960, however, fertility rates have fallen in virtually every major geographic region of the world, for almost all political, social, and economic groups. What factors are responsible for the sharp decline in fertility? What role do child survival programs or family programs play in fertility declines? Casual observation suggests that a decline in infant and child mortality is the most important cause, but there is surprisingly little hard evidence for this conclusion. The papers in this volume explore the theoretical, methodological, and empirical dimensions of the fertility-mortality relationship. It includes several detailed case studies based on contemporary data from developing countries and on historical data from Europe and the United States.







The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data


Book Description

This book presents statistical methods for analysis of the duration of events. The primary focus is on models for single-spell data, events in which individual agents are observed for a single duration. Some attention is also given to multiple-spell data. The first part of the book covers model specification, including both structural and reduced form models and models with and without neglected heterogeneity. The book next deals with likelihood based inference about such models, with sections on full and semiparametric specification. A final section treats graphical and numerical methods of specification testing. This is the first published exposition of current econometric methods for the study of duration data.




An Economic Analysis of the Family


Book Description

What do economists have to say about behavior within the context of the family? This book improves our understanding of how families and markets interact, why important aspects of families have been changing in recent decades, and how families respond to, and are affected by, public policy. It covers a broader range of topics with more consistency than have previous studies, including all major theoretical developments in the field over the past decade. John Ermisch builds his analysis on the premise that the standard analytical methods of microeconomics can help us understand resource allocation and the distribution of welfare within the family. Families are dynamic institutions--and so the author uses these same methods to study family formation and dissolution (including marriage, fertility, and divorce) and household formation, as well as intergenerational transfers, household production and investment, and bargaining between family members. He also shows how economic theories of the family can help guide and structure empirical analyses of demographic and related phenomena, such as labor supply, child support, and returns to education. Examples of studies that apply the theory are provided throughout the book. The most comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to an increasingly dynamic area of research, one with important implications for public policy, An Economic Analysis of the Family will be a valuable resource for advanced students of microeconomics and also for students and researchers in sociology, psychology, and other social sciences.







Readings in Development Microeconomics


Book Description

Volume II of this two-volume set focuses on empirical work.




Causes, Correlates and Consequences of Death Among Older Adults


Book Description

All humans eventually die, but life expectancies differ over time and among different demographic groups. Teasing out the various causes and correlates of death is a challenge, and it is one we take on in this book. A look at the data on mortality is both interesting and suggestive of some possible relationships. In 1900 life expectancies at birth were 46. 3 and 48. 3 years for men and women respectively, a gender differential of a bit less than 5 percent. Life expectancies for whites then were about 0. 3 years longer than that of the whole population, but life expectancies for blacks were only about 33 years for men and women. At age 65, the remaining life expectancies were about 12 and 11 years for whites and blacks respectively. Fifty years later, life expectancies at birth had grown to 66 and 71 years for males and females respectively. The percentage differential between the sexes was now almost up to 10 percent. The life expectancies of whites were about one year longer than that for the entire population. The big change was for blacks, whose life expectancy had grown to over 60 years with black females living about 5 percent longer than their male counterparts. At age 65 the remaining expected life had increased about two years with much larger percentage gains for blacks.