Book Description

As part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, policymakers around the world have implemented or are considering market-based emissions reductions policies like cap-and-trade. In the U.S., the only state with a cap-and-trade program that covers every sector in the economy is California, which has become a global leader in climate policy. Though California's emissions have decreased since the policy was implemented, this decline coincides with other factors, such as the natural gas boom and subsequent drop in natural gas prices, increases in vehicle gas mileage, and the ramping up of renewable portfolio standards. This study seeks to determine if, accounting for these other factors, the decrease in emissions can be attributed to the cap-and-trade program, and if so, how much reduction has come as a result of compliance with the program. I also study whether and how individual facilities comply with the cap. Using panel data for firm-level emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board and accounting for other factors using data from a variety of U.S. government sources, I find that California's cap-and-trade program is associated with a reduction in firms' emissions. However, my results show that this decline may be at least partially attributed to leakage of emissions from California's climate policy regime to other states. Further study and more detailed data is needed to better understand the relationship between firms' emissions, the cap, and leakage.