An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields


Book Description

This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)-denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the exchange rate. It also tests whether there are structural breaks in the dynamics of Japanese swap yields and related variables. The estimated econometric models show that the short-term interest rate exerts an important influence on the long-term swap yield in some periods but not in other periods in which core inflation exerts a marked influence on the swap yield. The findings from the econometric models reveal a discernable relationship between the call rate and the swap yield of different maturity tenors clearly held prior to April 2014 but did not in the subsequent period. These findings highlight the limits and scope of John Maynard Keynes's contention that the central bank's policy rate commands a decisive influence over the long-term market rate through the short-term interest rate. The policy implications of the estimated models' results are discussed.




The International Linkage of Interest Rate Swap Spreads


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate Japanese yen and U.S. dollar interest rate swap markets during the period 1990-99. We measure the spreads of the swap rates over comparable treasury yields (on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and U.S. Treasury bonds, respectively) for different maturities. We then analyze the relationship between the swap spreads in the two markets.Our main empirical results are that: (1) the correlations between yen and dollar interest swap spreads are low, indicating that the credit risk factor is country-specific, rather than global in nature, (2) dollar interest rate swaps quot;Granger-causequot; the changes in the spreads of yen interest rate swaps for the long (ten-year) maturities, but the causality does not run the other way, and (3) yen swap spreads are highly correlated with the interest rate differentials between the two markets, and the interest rate differentials have a significant impact on subsequent movements in the yen swap spreads. These empirical results indicate that the specific institutional aspects of the yen fixed income market, such as illiquidity and market frictions, may have affected the yen interest swap rate and the swap spread.




Determinants of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Spreads


Book Description

This paper investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads between Japanese yen interest rate swaps and Japan government bonds for a period from 1997 to 2005. A smooth transition vector autoregressive (STVAR) model and generalized impulse response functions are used to analyze the impact of various economic shocks on swap spreads. The volatility based on a GARCH model of the government bond rate is identified as the transition variable that controls the smooth transition from high volatility regime to low volatility regime. The break point of the regime shift occurs around the end of the Japanese banking crisis. The impact of economic shocks on swap spreads varies across the maturity of swap spreads as well as regimes. Overall, swap spreads are more responsive to the economic shocks in the high volatility regime. Moreover, volatility shock has profound effects on shorter maturity spreads, while the term structure shock plays an important role in impacting longer maturity spreads. Our results also show noticeable differences between the non-linear and linear impulse response functions.




Credit Risk and the Pricing of Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swaps


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit risk variables.




The Transmission of Swap Spreads and Volatilities in the International Swap Markets


Book Description

We investigate the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar interest rate swap markets during the period 1990-2000, by examining the spreads of the swap rates over comparable treasury yields (on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and U.S. Treasury bonds, respectively) for different maturities. We then analyze the transmission of shocks in the swap spreads and their volatilities from one market to the other. Our main findings are: (1) the correlations between the yen and dollar interest swap spreads are low, indicating that the credit risk factor is country-specific, rather than global in nature, (2) the changes in the dollar interest rate swap spreads quot;Granger-causequot; the changes in the spreads of yen interest rate swaps for the long (10-year) maturities, but the causality does not run the other way, (3) yen swap spreads are highly correlated with the interest rate differentials between the two markets, and the interest rate differentials have a significant impact on subsequent movements in the yen swap spreads, (4) the transmission of the volatility of swap spreads is strong from the dollar to the yen markets and relatively weak in the other direction, and (5) shocks to the dollar swap spread have an asymmetric impact on the volatilities of the spreads in both the yen and dollar swap markets, i.e., an increase in the dollar swap spread leads to higher future volatility of the spreads in both swap markets, but a decrease does not. These empirical results suggest that specific institutional aspects, such as illiquidity and market frictions, may have affected the yen interest swap market more than its dollar counterpart.




Credit Risk and the Yen Interest Rate Swap Market


Book Description

In this paper, we investigate the pricing of Japanese yen interest rate swaps during the period 1990-96. We obtain measures of the spreads of the swap rates over comparable Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) for different maturities and analyze the relationship between the swap spreads and credit risk variables.Our empirical results in the yen swap market indicate that: 1) the commonly-used assumption of lognormal default-free interest rates and swap spreads is strongly rejected by the data, 2) the term structure of swap spreads displays a humped-shape, and 3) the shocks in the yen swap spread are negatively correlated with the shocks in the comparable default-free spot rates, especially for longer maturities. Our analysis also indicates that yen swap spreads behaved very differently from the credit spreads on Japanese corporate bonds in the early nineties. In contrast to Japanese corporate bonds, we find that the yen swap spread is also significantly related to proxies for the long-term credit risk factor. Furthermore, the swap spread is negatively related to the level and slope of the term structure and positively related to the curvature, indicating that the credit 'optionality' is priced in the swap rate. Thus, overall, the yen swap market was sensitive to credit risk during the period of our study.




The Japanese Yen as an International Currency


Book Description

The role of the Japanese yen as an international currency is assessed. It is found that the determinants of international-currency use imply some increase for the yen’s use in international finance; however, the implications for the yen’s use in international trade are mixed. It is also shown that, despite Japan’s emergence as the world’s largest net creditor nation, Japan’s capital outflows have not significantly facilitated the yen’s internationalization. Data are presented showing that, although the yen’s use as an international currency has increased, it is still rather modest. Wider use of the yen as a regional currency in Asia has occurred, though a “yen-zone” does not appear to be emerging.




The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report


Book Description

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.







The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report


Book Description

From the Publisher: In the wake of the most significant financial crisis since the Great Depression, the President signed into law on May 20, 2009, the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009, creating the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The Commission was established to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." The 10 members of the bi-partisan Commission, prominent private citizens with significant experience in banking, market regulation, taxation, finance, economics, housing, and consumer protection, were appointed by Congress on July 15, 2009. The Chair, Phil Angelides, and Vice Chair, Bill Thomas, were selected jointly by the House and Senate Majority and Minority Leadership. The FCIC is charged with conducting a comprehensive examination of 22 specific and substantive areas of inquiry related to the financial crisis. These include: fraud and abuse in the financial sector, including fraud and abuse towards consumers in the mortgage sector; Federal and State financial regulators, including the extent to which they enforced, or failed to enforce statutory, regulatory, or supervisory requirements; the global imbalance of savings, international capital flows, and fiscal imbalances of various governments; monetary policy and the availability and terms of credit; accounting practices, including, mark-to-market and fair value rules, and treatment of off-balance sheet vehicles; tax treatment of financial products and investments; capital requirements and regulations on leverage and liquidity, including the capital structures of regulated and non-regulated financial entities; credit rating agencies in the financial system, including, reliance on credit ratings by financial institutions and Federal financial regulators, the use of credit ratings in financial regulation, and the use of credit ratings in the securitization markets; lending practices and securitization, including the originate-to-distribute model for extending credit and transferring risk; affiliations between insured depository institutions and securities, insurance, and other types of nonbanking companies; the concept that certain institutions are 'too-big-to-fail' and its impact on market expectations; corporate governance, including the impact of company conversions from partnerships to corporations; compensation structures; changes in compensation for employees of financial companies, as compared to compensation for others with similar skill sets in the labor market; the legal and regulatory structure of the United States housing market; derivatives and unregulated financial products and practices, including credit default swaps; short-selling; financial institution reliance on numerical models, including risk models and credit ratings; the legal and regulatory structure governing financial institutions, including the extent to which the structure creates the opportunity for financial institutions to engage in regulatory arbitrage; the legal and regulatory structure governing investor and mortgagor protection; financial institutions and government-sponsored enterprises; and the quality of due diligence undertaken by financial institutions. The Commission is called upon to examine the causes of major financial institutions which failed, or were likely to have failed, had they not received exceptional government assistance. In its work, the Commission is authorized to hold hearings; issue subpoenas either for witness testimony or documents; and refer to the Attorney General or the appropriate state Attorney General any person who may have violated U.S. law in relation to the financial crisis.