Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community [Annotated]


Book Description

Important annual publication from the US intelligence community. The world is facing a fragile and strained order due to increased competition between major powers like China and Russia, more intense and unpredictable transnational challenges like climate change and pandemics, and numerous regional conflicts with potential for wider implications. These factors are creating a complex and interconnected security landscape with cascading risks for U.S. interests and global stability. This annotated edition illustrates the capabilities of the AI Lab for Book-Lovers to add context and ease-of-use to manuscripts. The annotations were created using OpenAI's gpt-3.5-turbo and Google's Gemini 1.5-pro. This annotation package is ADEPT 2.0 and includes TLDR (three words), TLDR (Straightforward), Scientific Style Abstract, ELI5, Mnemonic (Acronymic), Mnemonic (Speakable), Mnemonic (Lyrics), Mash-up, Takeaways for the Boss, Action Items, Viewpoints, Grounds for Dissent, Red Team Critique, MAGA Perspective, Expert Surprises, Page-by-Page Summaries, Notable Passages, and a Glossary divided into General and Specific terms. The cover illustration is by ChatGPT.







Global Trends 2040


Book Description

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.







Annual Threat Assessment


Book Description

"The American people should know as much as possible about the threats facing our nation and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them." -Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (2021) Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community (2021) is an annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States compiled by the US Intelligence Community. It warns of the many perils facing the US, including China's increasing power, the geopolitical risks of Russia, Iran and North Korea, the long-term economic fallout of COVID-19, and global as well as domestic terrorism. This brief report with its short-term threat assessment is a good companion guide to Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World a 2021 report by the National Intelligence Council, which describes specifically long-term global challenges (also available from Cosimo Reports). Students of national security, policymakers, journalists, and anyone interested in US security will find this report essential reading.




Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent Us Elections


Book Description

This report includes an analytic assessment drafted and coordinated among The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and The National Security Agency (NSA), which draws on intelligence information collected and disseminated by those three agencies. It covers the motivation and scope of Moscow's intentions regarding US elections and Moscow's use of cyber tools and media campaigns to influence US public opinion. The assessment focuses on activities aimed at the 2016 US presidential election and draws on our understanding of previous Russian influence operations. When we use the term "we" it refers to an assessment by all three agencies. * This report is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment. This document's conclusions are identical to the highly classified assessment, but this document does not include the full supporting information, including specific intelligence on key elements of the influence campaign. Given the redactions, we made minor edits purely for readability and flow. We did not make an assessment of the impact that Russian activities had on the outcome of the 2016 election. The US Intelligence Community is charged with monitoring and assessing the intentions, capabilities, and actions of foreign actors; it does not analyze US political processes or US public opinion. * New information continues to emerge, providing increased insight into Russian activities. * PHOTOS REMOVED




Psychology of Intelligence Analysis


Book Description

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.







Contemporary Intelligence Analysis and National Security


Book Description

"The United States as the world's sole superpower is seeing its position wane as China and Russia look to reassert themselves as global powers. Moreover, there are many other security issues confronting the United States. This book provides an open source intelligence analysis of regions, countries and non-state actors from around the globe that could adversely impact the United States. Chapters in this book dissect issues using predominately qualitative analysis techniques focusing on secondary data sources in order to provide an unclassified assessment of threats as seen by the United States using two models (the York Intelligence Red Team Model and the Federal Secondary Data Case Study Triangulation Model). The key audience for this book includes the 17 members of the U.S. intelligence community, members of the U.S. National Security Council, allies of the United States, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) looking to provide support abroad, and private sector companies considering expanding their operations overseas"--




International Handbook of Threat Assessment


Book Description

Revised edition of International handbook of threat assessment, [2014]