Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh


Book Description

This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.




Fiscal Risks - Sources, Disclosure, and Management


Book Description

A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.




Improving Fiscal Transparency to Raise Government Efficiency and Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe


Book Description

This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.




Bangladesh


Book Description

This paper discusses Bangladesh’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Political uncertainty and nationwide strikes are taking a toll on economic activity, with private investment most affected. Real GDP growth moderated in FY2013 (July 2012–June 2013) to 6 percent (FY2012: 6.2 percent). Recent data on private credit and tax collections suggest economic activity continues to slow. The program remains on track. All performance criteria at end-June 2013 were met, and all structural benchmarks have been completed. The IMF staff recommends completion of the review and modification of the performance criteria for December 2013.




IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015


Book Description

The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.




Mastering the Risky Business of Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure


Book Description

Investment in infrastructure can be a driving force of the economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of shrinking fiscal space. Public-private partnerships (PPP) bring a promise of efficiency when carefully designed and managed, to avoid creating unnecessary fiscal risks. But fiscal illusions prevent an understanding the sources of fiscal risks, which arise in all infrastructure projects, and that in PPPs present specific characteristics that need to be addressed. PPP contracts are also affected by implicit fiscal risks when they are poorly designed, particularly when a government signs a PPP contract for a project with no financial sustainability. This paper reviews the advantages and inconveniences of PPPs, discusses the fiscal illusions affecting them, identifies a diversity of fiscal risks, and presents the essentials of PPP fiscal risk management.




Comparative Issues in Local Government Accounting


Book Description

In recent years there have been a number of significant reforms in local government accounting practices around the world. While the specific reasons for these changes vary, a common factor is the increasing need for governments to measure the efficacy and efficiency of their performance. Nowhere is this trend more apparent than at the local government level. This book aims to give a comparative international perspective on local government accounting innovations, and offers specific cases involving different economic, political and cultural conditions. Countries receiving extended treatment include Belgium, China, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Together, the essays offer a state-of-the-art take on these issues and identify key issues for future research.




Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh


Book Description

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts, and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and identifies adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a comprehensive integrated framework. First, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. Second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. A range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. Third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted, and an assessment is made of these. Food security is dependent not only on production, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. Finally, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. This book is the first to combine these multiple disciplines and analytical procedures to comprehensively address these impacts. The framework will serve as a useful guide to design policy intervention strategies and investments in adaptation measures.




Public–Private Partnership Monitor—Bangladesh


Book Description

This publication contains a detailed overview of Bangladesh’s public–private partnership (PPP) landscape, assesses its progress, and explains how well-structured deals can help climate-proof its infrastructure and maintain growth. Designed as a one-stop source of information on Bangladesh’s relatively mature PPP sector, it assesses over 500 qualitative and quantitative indicators, and shows how strengthening institutional frameworks has encouraged investments in core sectors such as ports, energy, and transportation. It explores how Bangladesh now needs to ramp up regulation and tighten contractual frameworks to generate more\ long-term financing and fill the funding gap it faces as demand for climate-resilient infrastructure rises.




Gender Equality and Inclusive Growth


Book Description

This paper considers various dimensions and sources of gender inequality and presents policies and best practices to address these. With women accounting for fifty percent of the global population, inclusive growth can only be achieved if it promotes gender equality. Despite recent progress, gender gaps remain across all stages of life, including before birth, and negatively impact health, education, and economic outcomes for women. The roadmap to gender equality has to rely on legal framework reforms, policies to promote equal access, and efforts to tackle entrenched social norms. These need to be set in the context of arising new trends such as digitalization, climate change, as well as shocks such as pandemics.