Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran


Book Description

The collection of chapters in Volume 43 Part A of Advances in Econometrics serves as a tribute to one of the most innovative, influential, and productive econometricians of his generation, Professor M. Hashem Pesaran.




State-Space Models


Book Description

State-space models as an important mathematical tool has been widely used in many different fields. This edited collection explores recent theoretical developments of the models and their applications in economics and finance. The book includes nonlinear and non-Gaussian time series models, regime-switching and hidden Markov models, continuous- or discrete-time state processes, and models of equally-spaced or irregularly-spaced (discrete or continuous) observations. The contributed chapters are divided into four parts. The first part is on Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning in Nonlinear State-Space Models. The second part focuses on the application of Linear State-Space Models in Macroeconomics and Finance. The third part deals with Hidden Markov Models, Regime Switching and Mathematical Finance and the fourth part is on Nonlinear State-Space Models for High Frequency Financial Data. The book will appeal to graduate students and researchers studying state-space modeling in economics, statistics, and mathematics, as well as to finance professionals.




Assessing Country Risk


Book Description

Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.




The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters


Book Description

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.




International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis


Book Description

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.




Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data


Book Description

This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.




Financial Stability Monitoring


Book Description

In a recently released New York Fed staff report, we present a forward-looking monitoring program to identify and track time-varying sources of systemic risk.




Assessing the Enabling Environment for Disaster Risk Financing


Book Description

Disasters damage and destroy infrastructure and disrupt economic activities and services, potentially delaying long-term development and hampering efforts to reduce poverty in the region. Countries require a strong enabling environment for disaster risk financing to ensure the timely availability of post-disaster funding. This report presents a comprehensive diagnostics tool kit that countries can apply to assess the financial management of disaster risk. The framework examines the state of the enabling environment and provides a basis to enhance financial resilience with insurance and other risk transfer instruments. It incorporates lessons from the country diagnostics assessments for Fiji, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka that made use of the tool kit and methodology.