Mountain Pine Beetle Attack in Ponderosa Pine: Comparing Methods for Rating Susceptibility


Book Description

Two empirical methods for rating susceptibility of mountain pine beetle attack in ponderosa pine were evaluated. The methods were compared to stand data modeled to objectively rate each sampled stand for susceptibly to bark-beetle attack. Data on bark-beetle attacks, from a survey of 45 sites throughout the Colorado Plateau, were modeled using logistic regression to estimate the probability of attack on individual trees from tree and stand variables. The logistic model allowed flexibility to easily scale results up to a stand level for comparison to the empirical methods. The empirical method, developed by Munson and Anhold, most closely correlated to the logistic regression results. However, the Munson/Anhold method rated all 45 study sites as either moderately or highly susceptible to bark-beetle attack, which raises concern about its lack of sensitivity. Future work on evaluating risk of bark-beetle impact should consider more than stand characteristics.






















Dynamics of Forest Insect Populations


Book Description

Insects multiply. Destruction reigns. There is dismay, followed by outcry, and demands to Authority. Authority remembers its experts or appoints some: they ought to know. The experts advise a Cure. The Cure can be almost anything: holy water from Mecca, a Government Commis sion, a culture of bacteria, poison, prayers denunciatory or tactful, a new god, a trap, a Pied Piper. The Cures have only one thing in common: with a little patience they always work. They have never been known entirely to fail. Likewise they have never been known to prevent the next outbreak. For the cycle of abundance and scarcity has a rhythm of its own, and the Cures are applied just when the plague of insects is going to abate through its own loss of momentum. -Abridged, with insects in place of voles, from C. Elton, 1924, Voles, Mice and Lemmings, with permission of Oxford University Press This book is an enquiry into the "natural rhythms" of insect abundance in forested ecosystems and into the forces that give rise to these rhythms. Forests form unique environ ments for such studies because one can find them growing under relatively natural (pri meval) conditions as well as under the domination of human actions. Also, the slow growth and turnover rates of forested ecosystems enable us to investigate insect popula tion dynamics in a plant environment that remains relatively constant or changes only slowly, this in contrast to agricultural systems, where change is often drastic and frequent.