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Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Author : Mr.Fabian Valencia

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 24 pages

File Size : 34,74 MB

Release : 2010-09-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1455205397

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Book Description

An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds statistically significant and robust evidence supporting it. A counterfactual experiment suggests that a decline in uncertainty to the lowest level measured in the sample generates an average reduction in bank capital ratios of slightly over 1 percentage point. However, I also find suggestive evidence that the intensity of this precautionary motive is stronger during recessions. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that the effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements during bad times will be undermined by banks desire to hold more capital in response to increased uncertainty.



Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Author : Mr.Fabian Valencia

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 26 pages

File Size : 42,74 MB

Release : 2013-12-02

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475513933

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Book Description

Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, increases in uncertainty reduce the supply of credit, more so for banks with lower levels of capitalization. These results are weaker for large banks, and are robust to controlling for the lending and capital channels of monetary policy, to different measures of uncertainty, and to breaking the dataset in subsamples. Quantitatively, uncertainty shocks are almost as important as monetary policy ones with regards to the effects on the supply of credit.



Uncertainty and Investment

Author : Sophia Chen

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 30 pages

File Size : 45,52 MB

Release : 2015-03-20

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475593163

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Book Description

Rollover risk imposes market discipline on banks’ risk-taking behavior but it can be socially costly. I present a two-sided model in which a bank simultaneously lends to a firm and borrows from the short-term funding market. When the bank is capital constrained, uncertainty in asset quality and rollover risk create a negative externality that spills over to the real economy by ex ante credit contraction. Macroprudential and monetary policies can be used to reduce the social cost of market discipline and improve efficiency.



Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises

Author : Allen N. Berger

Publisher : Academic Press

Page : 296 pages

File Size : 44,34 MB

Release : 2015-11-24

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0128005319

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Book Description

Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank's performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. - Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank's output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity - Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises - Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions - Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts



Managing Banking Risks

Author : Eddie Cade

Publisher : Routledge

Page : 254 pages

File Size : 13,37 MB

Release : 2013-11-26

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1135952140

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Book Description

Banking and financial services are some of the fastest-growing industries in the world's developed countries. As growth is spurred on by huge demand for new and improved services, bankers face the daunting and difficult challenges of reducing risks and uncertainty at a time of unprecedented innovation and prosperity. Managing Banking Risks fills a gap in banking literature by providing a professional and sophisticated risk planner--for bank directors, executives, and managers at every operational level. This important work covers the full range of banking risks that operation managers and executives need to understand--from liquidity risk to price risk to operating risk.





Uncertainty and Cross-Border Banking Flows

Author : Sangyup Choi

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 51 pages

File Size : 11,34 MB

Release : 2018-01-05

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1484336933

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Book Description

While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of country-specific uncertainty as a key (pull and push) factor of international capital flows. This paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by examining the effects of country-specific uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows using the confidential Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics data. The dyadic structure of this data allows to disentangle supply and demand factors and to better identify the effect of uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty is both a push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in both outflows (retrenchment) and inflows (stops); (ii) global banks rebalance their lending towards safer foreign borrowers from local borrowers when facing higher uncertainty; (iii) this rebalancing occurs only towards advanced economies (flight to quality), but not emerging market economies.



Bank Capital

Author : Ouarda Merrouche

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 38 pages

File Size : 42,47 MB

Release : 2010-12-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1455254878

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Book Description

Using a multi-country panel of banks, we study whether better capitalized banks experienced higher stock returns during the financial crisis. We differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk-adjusted ratio; the leverage ratio; the Tier I and Tier II ratios; and the tangible equity ratio. We find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not have much impact on stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, a stronger capital position was associated with better stock market performance, most markedly for larger banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk-adjusted capital ratio; (iv) higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital and tangible common equity, were more relevant.



Investment under Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit

Publisher : Princeton University Press

Page : 484 pages

File Size : 30,68 MB

Release : 2012-07-14

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1400830176

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Book Description

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.



Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations

Author : José Abad

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 61 pages

File Size : 32,51 MB

Release : 2022-01-28

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1616358939

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Book Description

Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.