Baseball bets, permanent profit, based on probability theory calculations


Book Description

Dear readers, this book gives you a real opportunity to have a steady income for months, until the end of the sports season, if you strictly follow and follow the strategy offered by me to make bets. This is not just for reading, but a guide to earning a permanent, steady amount of money, as evidenced by the analysis of statistical data and mathematical calculations of probability theory. I am not launching an anti-advertising activity, however, now we can find on the Internet a number of works of authors offering various large winnings. In their systems the risk factor is not considered. Almost all betting e-books, on a 5-star scale, assessed as a work. In many cases, evaluators are people from the author's environment or sponsored by bookmakers and company representatives who benefit from this. In other words, betting e-books are considered to be the promotion of the gambling business and the best way to attract new players, because the bookmaker will win! And here's why one of the sites selling sports betting programs and strategies, which sells very primitive ideas, refused to sell this book. There are no comments. You may think there is nothing like 100 percent, but I would say there is. However, there are sports where some events are unpredictable or hard to predict based on which bookmakers offer pretty high odds which do not always correspond to the likely outcome of the event.As a result of making increasing bets on these events we have a constant benefit, performing tactical details and if necessary, using additional security systems. As for this sport (baseball), throughout the whole league (USA MLB, IL,PCL, Mexico LMB, Japan NPB and South Korea KBO) I observed the performance statistics of these high odds, the probability of events were calculated at any betting stage, as well as before the stage, and were put on an excel file programmed with appropriate formulas. I will thoroughly introduce them for those who are good at math(We will check using the famous Bernoulli formula). This betting strategy was tested simultaneously for 2 years and now I am presenting the results. I am presenting you a unique system on the Internet among the first bets-99,1 % +N1 % +N2 % (I will talk about this further in the text) success ensuring strategy. It is a strategy of sequential betting chains which is both theoretically and practically proven and analyzed by the theory of probability and calculations. Regardless of a particular event outcome, at some point of the chain (ultimately at the end) you will inevitably be the winner. In the system I am offering, you will see the risk size and proofs that in case of long-lasting large number bets you are not at risk. As a result, you have a steady increase in your initial capital, even if one series of bets with a 99.9 % probability does not work. That is, you get a monthly net income of 20-50 and more percent of your money for circulation. For instance, if you have 5000 euros (it's the maximum amount in this system and can be necessary in extreme cases, you will see it later in the table) then your monthly income will be about 1000 euros (relatively smaller benefit is conditioned by the usage of an additional support system), and in case of 3000 euros-the income will be up to 1500 euros depending on the odds. I would like to add that instead of the mentioned sum of 3000 or 5000 Euros, you can fit in the average amount of 1500-2000 Euros (but you need to have 5000 euros for security) and have a net monthly benefit of about 1500 euros (You will understand this from the following sub-titles of the book and from the table). As you understand, the indicated amount of 5000 euros is your bank, and if you want to invest more money, you can have a bank of more than 5000 euros. In this case, you will have a correspondingly large profit. You will need the screen only 2 or 3 times for an about 5 minutes, by the way, mostly after working hours.




Introduction to Probability


Book Description

Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.




Probability


Book Description

This classic introduction to probability theory for beginning graduate students covers laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. It is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results that are the most useful for applications. Its philosophy is that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, so there are 200 examples and 450 problems. The fourth edition begins with a short chapter on measure theory to orient readers new to the subject.




Introduction to Probability


Book Description

This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.




Probability, Decisions and Games


Book Description

INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: · Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years · Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker · Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. · Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations · Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience · Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines. ABEL RODRÍGUEZ, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), CA, USA. The author of 40 journal articles, his research interests include Bayesian nonparametric methods, machine learning, spatial temporal models, network models, and extreme value theory. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.INTRODUCES THE FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY, STATISTICS, DECISION THEORY, AND GAME THEORY, AND FEATURES INTERESTING EXAMPLES OF GAMES OF CHANCE AND STRATEGY TO MOTIVATE AND ILLUSTRATE ABSTRACT MATHEMATICAL CONCEPTS Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: • Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years • Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker • Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. • Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations • Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience • Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines. ABEL RODRÍGUEZ, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), CA, USA. The author of 40 journal articles, his research interests include Bayesian nonparametric methods, machine learning, spatial temporal models, network models, and extreme value theory. BRUNO MENDES, PhD, is Lecturer in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.




Elementary Probability for Applications


Book Description

This clear and lively introduction to probability theory concentrates on the results that are the most useful for applications, including combinatorial probability and Markov chains. Concise and focused, it is designed for a one-semester introductory course in probability for students who have some familiarity with basic calculus. Reflecting the author's philosophy that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, there are more than 350 problems and 200 examples. The examples contain all the old standards such as the birthday problem and Monty Hall, but also include a number of applications not found in other books, from areas as broad ranging as genetics, sports, finance, and inventory management.




Probability and Statistics


Book Description

Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.




Introductory Statistics 2e


Book Description

Introductory Statistics 2e provides an engaging, practical, and thorough overview of the core concepts and skills taught in most one-semester statistics courses. The text focuses on diverse applications from a variety of fields and societal contexts, including business, healthcare, sciences, sociology, political science, computing, and several others. The material supports students with conceptual narratives, detailed step-by-step examples, and a wealth of illustrations, as well as collaborative exercises, technology integration problems, and statistics labs. The text assumes some knowledge of intermediate algebra, and includes thousands of problems and exercises that offer instructors and students ample opportunity to explore and reinforce useful statistical skills. This is an adaptation of Introductory Statistics 2e by OpenStax. You can access the textbook as pdf for free at openstax.org. Minor editorial changes were made to ensure a better ebook reading experience. Textbook content produced by OpenStax is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.




Calculated Bets


Book Description

A story of using computer simulations and mathematical modeling techniques to predict the outcome of jai-alai matches and bet on them successfully.




Essentials of Stochastic Processes


Book Description

Building upon the previous editions, this textbook is a first course in stochastic processes taken by undergraduate and graduate students (MS and PhD students from math, statistics, economics, computer science, engineering, and finance departments) who have had a course in probability theory. It covers Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, Poisson processes, renewal processes, martingales, and option pricing. One can only learn a subject by seeing it in action, so there are a large number of examples and more than 300 carefully chosen exercises to deepen the reader’s understanding. Drawing from teaching experience and student feedback, there are many new examples and problems with solutions that use TI-83 to eliminate the tedious details of solving linear equations by hand, and the collection of exercises is much improved, with many more biological examples. Originally included in previous editions, material too advanced for this first course in stochastic processes has been eliminated while treatment of other topics useful for applications has been expanded. In addition, the ordering of topics has been improved; for example, the difficult subject of martingales is delayed until its usefulness can be applied in the treatment of mathematical finance.