Bayes' Theorem Examples


Book Description

***** #1 Kindle Store Bestseller in Mathematics (Throughout 2016) ********** #1 Kindle Store Bestseller in Education Theory (Throughout 2017) *****If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this book is for you. Bayes' Theorem Examples: A Beginners Visual Approach to Bayesian Data Analysis If you've recently used Google search to find something, Bayes' Theorem was used to find your search results. The same is true for those recommendations on Netflix. Hedge funds? Self-driving cars? Search and Rescue? Bayes' Theorem is used in all of the above and more. At its core, Bayes' Theorem is a simple probability and statistics formula that has revolutionized how we understand and deal with uncertainty. If life is seen as black and white, Bayes' Theorem helps us think about the gray areas. When new evidence comes our way, it helps us update our beliefs and create a new belief.Ready to dig in and visually explore Bayes' Theorem? Let's go! Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout the book to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The beautifully hand-drawn visual illustrations are specifically designed and formatted for the kindle.This book also includes sections not found in other books on Bayes' Rule. These include: A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). - For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios. A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes' Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. Learn how Bayes can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life. A concise history of Bayes' Rule. - Bayes' Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700's to its being used to break the German's Enigma Code during World War 2. Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes' formula is used everyday.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. An expanded Bayes' Theorem definition, including notations, and proof section. - In this section we define core elementary bayesian statistics terms more concretely. A recommended readings sectionFrom The Theory That Would Not Die to Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics in Pythoni> and many more, there are a number of fantastic resources we have collected for further reading. If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive Bayes' Theorem 'for dummies' type book is a good fit for you. Praise for Bayes' Theorem Examples "...What Morris has presented is a useful way to provide the reader with a basic understanding of how to apply the theorem. He takes it easy step by easy step and explains matters in a way that almost anyone can understand. Moreover, by using Venn Diagrams and other visuals, he gives the reader multiple ways of understanding exactly what is going on in Bayes' theorem. The way in which he presents this material helps solidify in the reader's mind how to use Bayes' theorem..." - Doug E. - TOP 100 REVIEWER"...For those who are predominately "Visual Learners", as I certainly am, I highly recommend this book...I believe I gained more from this book than I did from college statistics. Or at least, one fantastic refresher after 20 some years after the fact." - Tin F. TOP 50 REVIEWER




Think Bayes


Book Description

If you know how to program with Python, and know a little about probability, you're ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. This book shows you how to use Python code instead of math to help you learn Bayesian fundamentals. Once you get the math out of the way, you'll be able to apply these techniques to real-world problems.




The Theory That Would Not Die


Book Description

"This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the generations-long human drama surrounding it. McGrayne traces the rule’s discovery by an 18th century amateur mathematician through its development by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—while practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, such as Alan Turing's work breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II. McGrayne also explains how the advent of computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.




Bayes' Rule


Book Description

In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.




Bayes Theorem Examples


Book Description

This book is a discussion about the Bayes' Theorem. The first part of the book helps you understand what Bayes' Theorem is and the areas in which it can be applied. The derivation of Bayes' Theorem is also discussed, so you will know the various steps it takes for you to derive Bayes' Theorem. Some basic examples are then given to help you understand how you can solve them by use of Bayes' Theorem. These examples have been picked from a wide range of areas, and they are all based on the concept of conditional probability. This is a situation in which you are given the evidence and you are expected to calculate or determine the probability of a certain event occurring, or in other words, if an event A has occurred, what is the probability that event B will occur. The application of Bayes' Theorem in drug and medical tests is then discussed in detail. You will learn how to determine the probability of individuals being users of a certain drug or non-users of that drug. You will also learn how to determine the probability of individuals having certain conditions. The book also discusses the application of Bayes' Theorem when you are rolling dice. You will learn how to apply this Theorem to determine the probability of getting Heads and Tails. The book also helps you in determining if a coin toss is fair or not based on the outcome after it has occurred. Here is a preview of what you'll learn: - What is Bayes Theorem? - Basic Examples - Drug and Medical Tests - Dice and Rolls - Is the Coin Fair?




Bayes Theorem Examples


Book Description

Bayes theorem is a method that is used to solve conditional probability, Bayes theory is accurately that is given you the actual probability of an event given information about the testThis book is loaded with interactive examples no bayes theoremBayes theorem is also called Bayes theory, Bayes rule or Bayes formula and is used in different industries including spam filters and drug testing due to the fact that it is vital to provide a systematic and proven ways to find the estimated probability when new data is available Bayesian data analysis is thought in statistics but not taught in a practical way, this book will show you a very comprehensive understanding on how Bayesian statistics functions, it contains practical Bayes Theorem examples to help increase your understanding of bayes theoryThis book will show you Bayes theorem works in real life and how it can be applied to real life applicationGet your copy today and understanding the basics of Bayes theorem and its application in a wide range of industries




Bayes Theorem Examples


Book Description

Discover how to use Bayes' Theorem for real world applications like weather prediction, criminal investigation, blackjack games, and countless others! Picture this... You've been feeling sick for a couple days. You have a job interview on Thursday. Today is Monday, and you want to make sure you're healthy by Thursday...but you can't afford the time or cost of seeing a doctor before then. What are the odds of being up and running by Thursday? Do they get better if you've just started a new health kick? Or do they stay the same? Or perhaps... ...you notice your good ol' dog Spike walking clumsily and think he may be going blind. However you can't take him to a vet immediately...but you still want to know what the odds are that something's wrong with his eyes. So how do you determine this? These questions and countless others can be better answered when you apply Bayes' Theorem. To simplify it, Bayes' Theorem is the method by which you use to determine the probability of an event based on conditions that may be related to an event. So if you want to determine if your dog is sick and you know his breed is a golden retriever...well you could possibly use that information to assess the likely odds of him being sick! In this guide you'll see example after example of Bayes' Theorem being put into practice. You'll also see how each conclusion is arrived at with summation notation and basic equations. BUT...the purpose of this book isn't just to throw equations at you. It's to help you get an intuitive feel for the probability of an outcome without having to plug in all the numbers. I made sure this book wasn't filled with too much jargon or advanced notation. In fact, this book can be used if...1. You're just a lay person interested in learning how to "predict" the chances of events and gain deeper insight to the world around us2. You're a student who needs to learn about Bayes' Theorem quickly and easily3. You're a teacher or educator looking to advance or brush up on your existing knowledge of Bayes' Theorem I encourage you to download 'Bayes Theorem' so you can make more informed approximations of how events will play out. Plus, when you download "Bayes Theorem", you'll also discover: How to solve unobvious questions How to do your own genetic testing (find out if you're more prone to certain types of ailments) Why a smoker and non-smoker may have equal chances of developing chronic bronchitis How companies can use Bayes' Theorem to manipulate and spew propaganda What the chances are of someone becoming addicted to pills How to determine if a suspected criminal is more likely innocent or guilty The proper mathematical equations and notation to use-and guided explanations of each So download 'Bayes Theorem' today and enhance your statistical knowledge on the world and how things work




Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way


Book Description

Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to: - How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief - Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for - Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions - Calculate distributions to see the range of your data - Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.




The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics


Book Description

The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics presents the essential information about statistical tests, concepts, and analytical methods in language that is accessible to practitioners and students of the vast community using statistics in medicine, engineering, physical science, life science, social science, and business/economics. The reference is alphabetically arranged to provide quick access to the fundamental tools of statistical methodology and biographies of famous statisticians. The more than 500 entries include definitions, history, mathematical details, limitations, examples, references, and further readings. All entries include cross-references as well as the key citations. The back matter includes a timeline of statistical inventions. This reference will be an enduring resource for locating convenient overviews about this essential field of study.




Bayesian Probability for Babies


Book Description

Fans of Chris Ferrie's Rocket Science for Babies, Astrophysics for Babies, and 8 Little Planets will love this introduction to the basic principles of probability for babies and toddlers! Help your future genius become the smartest baby in the room! It only takes a small spark to ignite a child's mind. If you took a bite out of a cookie and that bite has no candy in it, what is the probability that bite came from a candy cookie or a cookie with no candy? You and baby will find out the probability and discover it through different types of distribution. Yet another Baby University board book full of simple explanations of complex ideas written by an expert for your future genius! If you're looking for baby math books, probability for kids, or more Baby University board books to surprise your little one, look no further! Bayesian Probability for Babies offers fun early learning for your little scientist!