Bayesian Statistics, New Generations New Approaches


Book Description

This book hosts the results presented at the 6th Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting 2022 in Montréal, Canada, held on June 22–23, titled "Bayesian Statistics, New Generations New Approaches". This collection features selected peer-reviewed contributions that showcase the vibrant and diverse research presented at meeting. This book is intended for a broad audience interested in statistics and aims at providing stimulating contributions to theoretical, methodological, and computational aspects of Bayesian statistics. The contributions highlight various topics in Bayesian statistics, presenting promising methodological approaches to address critical challenges across diverse applications. This compilation stands as a testament to the talent and potential within the j-ISBA community. This book is meant to serve as a catalyst for continued advancements in Bayesian methodology and its applications and encourages fruitful collaborations that push the boundaries of statistical research.




Bayesian Statistics and New Generations


Book Description

This book presents a selection of peer-reviewed contributions to the fourth Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2018, held at the University of Warwick on 2-3 July 2018. The meeting provided a valuable opportunity for young researchers, MSc students, PhD students, and postdocs interested in Bayesian statistics to connect with the broader Bayesian community. The proceedings offer cutting-edge papers on a wide range of topics in Bayesian statistics, identify important challenges and investigate promising methodological approaches, while also assessing current methods and stimulating applications. The book is intended for a broad audience of statisticians, and demonstrates how theoretical, methodological, and computational aspects are often combined in the Bayesian framework to successfully tackle complex problems.




A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods


Book Description

A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.




Bayesian Methods


Book Description

The first edition of Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach helped pave the way for Bayesian approaches to become more prominent in social science methodology. While the focus remains on practical modeling and basic theory as well as on intuitive explanations and derivations without skipping steps, this second edition incorporates the latest methodology and recent changes in software offerings. New to the Second Edition Two chapters on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) that cover ergodicity, convergence, mixing, simulated annealing, reversible jump MCMC, and coupling Expanded coverage of Bayesian linear and hierarchical models More technical and philosophical details on prior distributions A dedicated R package (BaM) with data and code for the examples as well as a set of functions for practical purposes such as calculating highest posterior density (HPD) intervals Requiring only a basic working knowledge of linear algebra and calculus, this text is one of the few to offer a graduate-level introduction to Bayesian statistics for social scientists. It first introduces Bayesian statistics and inference, before moving on to assess model quality and fit. Subsequent chapters examine hierarchical models within a Bayesian context and explore MCMC techniques and other numerical methods. Concentrating on practical computing issues, the author includes specific details for Bayesian model building and testing and uses the R and BUGS software for examples and exercises.




New Statistics for Design Researchers


Book Description

Design Research uses scientific methods to evaluate designs and build design theories. This book starts with recognizable questions in Design Research, such as A/B testing, how users learn to operate a device and why computer-generated faces are eerie. Using a broad range of examples, efficient research designs are presented together with statistical models and many visualizations. With the tidy R approach, producing publication-ready statistical reports is straight-forward and even non-programmers can learn this in just one day. Hundreds of illustrations, tables, simulations and models are presented with full R code and data included. Using Bayesian linear models, multi-level models and generalized linear models, an extensive statistical framework is introduced, covering a huge variety of research situations and yet, building on only a handful of basic concepts. Unique solutions to recurring problems are presented, such as psychometric multi-level models, beta regression for rating scales and ExGaussian regression for response times. A “think-first” approach is promoted for model building, as much as the quantitative interpretation of results, stimulating readers to think about data generating processes, as well as rational decision making. New Statistics for Design Researchers: A Bayesian Workflow in Tidy R targets scientists, industrial researchers and students in a range of disciplines, such as Human Factors, Applied Psychology, Communication Science, Industrial Design, Computer Science and Social Robotics. Statistical concepts are introduced in a problem-oriented way and with minimal formalism. Included primers on R and Bayesian statistics provide entry point for all backgrounds. A dedicated chapter on model criticism and comparison is a valuable addition for the seasoned scientist.




Computational Psychometrics: New Methodologies for a New Generation of Digital Learning and Assessment


Book Description

This book defines and describes a new discipline, named “computational psychometrics,” from the perspective of new methodologies for handling complex data from digital learning and assessment. The editors and the contributing authors discuss how new technology drastically increases the possibilities for the design and administration of learning and assessment systems, and how doing so significantly increases the variety, velocity, and volume of the resulting data. Then they introduce methods and strategies to address the new challenges, ranging from evidence identification and data modeling to the assessment and prediction of learners’ performance in complex settings, as in collaborative tasks, game/simulation-based tasks, and multimodal learning and assessment tasks. Computational psychometrics has thus been defined as a blend of theory-based psychometrics and data-driven approaches from machine learning, artificial intelligence, and data science. All these together provide a better methodological framework for analysing complex data from digital learning and assessments. The term “computational” has been widely adopted by many other areas, as with computational statistics, computational linguistics, and computational economics. In those contexts, “computational” has a meaning similar to the one proposed in this book: a data-driven and algorithm-focused perspective on foundations and theoretical approaches established previously, now extended and, when necessary, reconceived. This interdisciplinarity is already a proven success in many disciplines, from personalized medicine that uses computational statistics to personalized learning that uses, well, computational psychometrics. We expect that this volume will be of interest not just within but beyond the psychometric community. In this volume, experts in psychometrics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, data science and natural language processing illustrate their work, showing how the interdisciplinary expertise of each researcher blends into a coherent methodological framework to deal with complex data from complex virtual interfaces. In the chapters focusing on methodologies, the authors use real data examples to demonstrate how to implement the new methods in practice. The corresponding programming codes in R and Python have been included as snippets in the book and are also available in fuller form in the GitHub code repository that accompanies the book.




Statistical Rethinking


Book Description

Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.




Computational Bayesian Statistics


Book Description

This integrated introduction to fundamentals, computation, and software is your key to understanding and using advanced Bayesian methods.




A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics


Book Description

Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers.




Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics


Book Description

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistical models, including the multiple linear regression model, the hierarchical mean model, the logistic regression model, and the proportional hazards model. The book begins with an outline of the similarities and differences between Bayesian and the likelihood approaches to statistics. Subsequent chapters present key techniques for using computer software to draw Monte Carlo samples from the incompletely known posterior distribution and performing the Bayesian inference calculated from these samples. Topics of coverage include: Direct ways to draw a random sample from the posterior by reshaping a random sample drawn from an easily sampled starting distribution The distributions from the one-dimensional exponential family Markov chains and their long-run behavior The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Gibbs sampling algorithm and methods for speeding up convergence Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling Using numerous graphs and diagrams, the author emphasizes a step-by-step approach to computational Bayesian statistics. At each step, important aspects of application are detailed, such as how to choose a prior for logistic regression model, the Poisson regression model, and the proportional hazards model. A related Web site houses R functions and Minitab macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, and detailed appendices in the book guide readers through the use of these software packages. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics is an excellent book for courses on computational statistics at the upper-level undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who use computer programs to conduct statistical analyses of data and solve problems in their everyday work.