Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
Author : Douglas A. Hibbs (Jr.)
Publisher :
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 28,34 MB
Release : 2000
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Douglas A. Hibbs (Jr.)
Publisher :
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 28,34 MB
Release : 2000
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Douglas A. Hibbs
Publisher :
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 25,74 MB
Release : 2000
Category :
ISBN :
Author : Douglas A. Hibbs
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 26,89 MB
Release : 2008
Category :
ISBN :
In this paper I apply the Bread and Peace model of voting in US presidential elections to analyze the sources of George W. Bush's narrow re-election victory in 2004. The aggregate election outcome is readily explained by the model's objectively measured political-economic fundamentals - no appeal need be made to arbitrary count, trend, dummy and switching variables. The results imply that the 2004 election turned mainly on weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income over the term. The war in Iraq, which has escalated dramatically in political relevance since the 2004 contest, had a relatively small impact on the election result, most likely depressing Bush's two-party vote share by less than a half percentage point.
Author : Abdul Karim Bangura
Publisher :
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 23,7 MB
Release : 2023
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781666937640
This edited volume is the first comprehensive text to provide an evidence-based (i.e. emphasizing the practical application of the findings of the best available current research) and nonpartisan (i.e. not biased, especially toward any particular political group) analyses of the United States Presidential Election of 2020. The contributors to this volume present evidence pertaining to polling and improbabilities, the modernization of United States elections administration and the voting process, voting strategy and legal wrangling, the Black view, and challenges to democracy. The collection ends with a unifying theme, predicts the probability for the 2024 Presidential Election, and offers policy recommendations for future Presidential Elections.
Author : Jeffrey A. Smith
Publisher : Greenwood
Page : 232 pages
File Size : 40,86 MB
Release : 1980
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
Author : Ronald Reagan
Publisher :
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 38,98 MB
Release : 1983
Category : History
ISBN : 9780895266224
Author : Alberto Alesina
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 302 pages
File Size : 46,59 MB
Release : 1995-01-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780521436205
This book develops an integrated approach to understanding the American economy and national elections. Economic policy is generally seen as the result of a compromise between the President and Congress. Because Democrats and Republicans usually maintain polarized preferences on policy, middle-of-the-road voters seek to balance the President by reinforcing in Congress the party not holding the White House. This balancing leads, always, to relatively moderate policies and, frequently, to divided government. The authors first outline the rational partisan business cycle, where Republican administrations begin with recession, and Democratic administrations with expansions, and next the midterm cycle, where the President's party loses votes in the mid-term congressional election. The book argues that both cycles are the result of uncertainty about the outcome of presidential elections. Other topics covered include retrospective voting on the economy, coat-tails, and incumbency advantage. A final chapter shows how the analysis sheds light on the economies and political processes of other industrial democracies.
Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 246 pages
File Size : 18,78 MB
Release : 2024-07-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN :
In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Author : Jan E. Leighley
Publisher : Oxford University Press (UK)
Page : 796 pages
File Size : 44,24 MB
Release : 2012-02-16
Category : History
ISBN : 0199604517
The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Author : George Stephanopoulos
Publisher : Back Bay Books
Page : 343 pages
File Size : 34,57 MB
Release : 2008-08-01
Category : Biography & Autobiography
ISBN : 0316041920
All Too Human is a new-generation political memoir, written from the refreshing perspective of one who got his hands on the levers of awesome power at an early age. At thirty, the author was at Bill Clinton's side during the presidential campaign of 1992, & for the next five years he was rarely more than a step away from the president & his other advisers at every important moment of the first term. What Liar's Poker did to Wall Street, this book will do to politics. It is an irreverent & intimate portrait of how the nation's weighty business is conducted by people whose egos & idiosyncrasies are no sturdier than anyone else's. Including sharp portraits of the Clintons, Al Gore, Dick Morris, Colin Powell, & scores of others, as well as candid & revelatory accounts of the famous debacles & triumphs of an administration that constantly went over the top, All Too Human is, like its author, a brilliant combination of pragmatic insight & idealism. It is destined to be the most important & enduring book to come out of the Clinton administration.