Bubbles, Crashes and Financial Disasters


Book Description

Throughout history, the allure of promising opportunities has often ignited a speculative frenzy, arousing the get-rich-quick syndrome in millions of credulous souls, driving them to the extremes of ambition and greed in their quest for wealth. The symptoms of such behaviour frequently manifest during the build-up to a market crash, when months or even years of gains are wiped out in mere hours. This phenomenon is known as the ‘boom-and-bust scenario’, characterized by an economic bubble followed by a devastating crash. In this book, we delve into a number of remarkable events that have taken place between the seventeenth century and the present day, culminating in enormous financial losses for the general public or even the collapse of entire economies. The Great Crash of 1929 and some of the instances depicted from the 1980s onwards had seismic effects felt on a global scale. Today, despite living in a highly sophisticated world of economic regulation, financial manipulation, and extensive application of fiscal policy, economic bubbles still seem to burgeon from invisible beginnings, grow rapidly out of control, and then fragment into a melee of problems for modern society. While many believe that the random forces of human nature are responsible, spiralling out of control during periods of heady speculation, others share a different view. They argue that large economic bubbles are non-organic, engineered from within the system itself. This book takes a light-hearted journey through the subject matter, considering both the historical events and the intriguing possibility that financial engineering plays a role in the creation and destruction of economic bubbles.




Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes


Book Description

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.




Manias, Panics and Crashes


Book Description

Manias, Panics and Crashes was first published in 1978, and dealt with financial crises that were, for the most part, before World War II. Black Monday of October 1987, along with more research especially on the years from 1880 to 1893 indicated a need for a second look. The third edition had its stimulus in the Japanese crash of January 1990, the effects of which carried through to decade. This new fourth edition covers the striking troubles of Mexico in 1994-95 and East Asia in 1997-98.




Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition


Book Description

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.




Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes


Book Description

Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.




Manias, Panics and Crashes


Book Description

Manias, Panics, and Crashes The best known and most highly regarded book on market crisis, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is entertaining, exhaustive, and thoroughly engaging. Since its introduction in 1978, it has charted a new landscape in the volatile world of financial markets. Charles Kindleberger's brilliant, panoramic history revealed how financial crises follow a nature-like rhythm: they peak and purge, swell and storm. Now in a newly revised and expanded third edition, Manias, Panics, and Crashes probes the most recent "natural disasters" of the markets-from Black Monday to the Japanese boom and bust, from the Sterling crisis and Peso devaluation to the potential "bubble" of today's technology stocks. Kindleberger's writing is both captivating and colorful, leading the reader through a myriad of financial free falls. From the currency devaluation in the Holy Roman Empire in 1618, through the California gold rush of the 1840s and '50s, all the way up to the crash of 1987 and last year's Peso devaluation, his sharply drawn history confronts a host of key questions: In the ups and downs of market behavior, where is the line between rational and irrational? Are the markets a fool's paradise in an explosive world? When the storm expands to dangerous proportions, who will calm the panic amid the thundering squall? Should a "lender of last resort" intervene to repair the wreckage and bury the carnage? Along with scores of casualties and criminals, a revealing common thread emerges from this rich history of manias, panics, and crashes: market crises are associated with greed and avarice. Just as money evolved from coins to include bank notes, bills of exchange, bank deposits, and checks, greed likewise took on many different forms. Lightning will strike an economic environment in strife, and Kindleberger explores what happens to the markets when conflicting interests arise. Manias, Panics, and Crashes can be regarded as a warning or a proposition, reminding readers, in many ways, that what goes around comes around. Like all true classics, Kindleberger's book remains timely-for better or for worse. "One never picks up a work by Charles Kindleberger without anticipating a feast of entertainment. But underneath the hilarious anecdotes, the elegant epigrams, and the graceful turns of phrase, Kindleberger is deadly serious." -from the Foreword by Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street Originally written in 1978, Manias, Panics, and Crashes is still the best known and most highly regarded book on financial crises. From the currency devaluation in the Holy Roman Empire in 1618, through the California gold rush of the 1840s and '50s, all the way up to the crash of 1987 and last year's Peso devaluation, Manias, Panics, and Crashes reminds us that with regard to excess, greed, crisis, and money-what goes around still comes around. Acclaim for Manias, Panics, and Crashes "[Manias, Panics, and Crashes] is a scholarly account of the way that mismanagement of money and credit has led to financial explosions over the centuries." -Richard Lambert, Financial Times "Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a durable guide to meditation: wise, witty, and practical. It is a template against which to measure the latest financial crisis-whatever and whenever that happens to be." -David Warsh, The Boston Globe "Manias, Panics, and Crashes glistens among the classic books on economics and finance." -S. Jay Levy, Chairman, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College "This book sparkles with the best of Kindleberger's wit, insight, and passion for financial history. A real delight." -Robert Z. Aliber, Professor of International Economics and Finance, University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business




Boom and Bust


Book Description

Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.




Why Stock Markets Crash


Book Description

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.




Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1


Book Description

Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.




Manias, Panics, and Crashes


Book Description

This seventh edition of an investment classic has been thoroughly revised and expanded following the latest crises to hit international markets. Renowned economist Robert Z. Aliber introduces the concept that global financial crises in recent years are not independent events, but symptomatic of an inherent instability in the international system.