Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States


Book Description

We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign's creditworthiness. We use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies, such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers, and contrast these policies with the post-disaster support provided by donors. Investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful, in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure, because it raises the marginal product of private capital, crowding in private investment, while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster. In an application to Vanuatu, we find that donors should provide an additional 50% of pre-cyclone GDP in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following Cyclone Pam. Helping the government build resilience on the other hand, reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors.




Small States Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF


Book Description

Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.




Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States


Book Description

We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign's creditworthiness. We use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies, such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers, and contrast these policies with the post-disaster support provided by donors. Investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful, in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure, because it raises the marginal product of private capital, crowding in private investment, while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster. In an application to Vanuatu, we find that donors should provide an additional 50% of pre-cyclone GDP in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following Cyclone Pam. Helping the government build resilience on the other hand, reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors.




Building the Resilience of Small States


Book Description

Some small states enjoy relatively high GDP per capita –giving the impression of economic strength – when in reality these economies are fragile and disproportionately affected by adverse economic shocks, natural disasters and extreme weather events. The Commonwealth resilience framework has been developed to identify both the national policies required to build resilience and the areas in which regional and international development partners can provide support. This study refines and expands the framework to cover areas such as governance, environmental management and social development. It proposes policy measures for building resilience and ways in which the resilience framework for small states can be embedded in national planning to help stakeholders to agree priority areas for policy intervention.




Unbreakable


Book Description

'Economic losses from natural disasters totaled $92 billion in 2015.' Such statements, all too commonplace, assess the severity of disasters by no other measure than the damage inflicted on buildings, infrastructure, and agricultural production. But $1 in losses does not mean the same thing to a rich person that it does to a poor person; the gravity of a $92 billion loss depends on who experiences it. By focusing on aggregate losses—the traditional approach to disaster risk—we restrict our consideration to how disasters affect those wealthy enough to have assets to lose in the first place, and largely ignore the plight of poor people. This report moves beyond asset and production losses and shifts its attention to how natural disasters affect people’s well-being. Disasters are far greater threats to well-being than traditional estimates suggest. This approach provides a more nuanced view of natural disasters than usual reporting, and a perspective that takes fuller account of poor people’s vulnerabilities. Poor people suffer only a fraction of economic losses caused by disasters, but they bear the brunt of their consequences. Understanding the disproportionate vulnerability of poor people also makes the case for setting new intervention priorities to lessen the impact of natural disasters on the world’s poor, such as expanding financial inclusion, disaster risk and health insurance, social protection and adaptive safety nets, contingent finance and reserve funds, and universal access to early warning systems. Efforts to reduce disaster risk and poverty go hand in hand. Because disasters impoverish so many, disaster risk management is inseparable from poverty reduction policy, and vice versa. As climate change magnifies natural hazards, and because protection infrastructure alone cannot eliminate risk, a more resilient population has never been more critical to breaking the cycle of disaster-induced poverty.




Climate and Disaster Resilience Financing in Small Island Developing States


Book Description

Storms, hurricanes, and cyclones have been a feature of life on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) for centuries. But climate change is now increasing the intensity of these disasters, as well as creating new developmental challenges - like rising sea levels and increasing ocean acidity - ...




Building Resilience in Developing Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters


Book Description

This paper discusses how countries vulnerable to natural disasters can reduce the associated human and economic cost. Building on earlier work by IMF staff, the paper views disaster risk management through the lens of a three-pillar strategy for building structural, financial, and post-disaster (including social) resilience. A coherent disaster resilience strategy, based on a diagnostic of risks and cost-effective responses, can provide a road map for how to tackle disaster related vulnerabilities. It can also help mobilize much-needed support from the international community.




Launching a National Conversation on Disaster Resilience in America


Book Description

With the increasing frequency of natural and human-induced disasters and the increasing magnitude of their consequences, a clear need exists for governments and communities to become more resilient. The National Research Council's 2012 report Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative addressed the importance of resilience, discussed different challenges and approaches for building resilience, and outlined steps for implementing resilience efforts in communities and within government. Launching a National Conversation on Disaster Resilience in America is a summary of a one-day event in November 2012 to formally launch a national conversation on resilience. Nationally-recognized experts in disaster resilience met to discuss developing a culture of resilience, implementing resilience, and understanding federal perspectives about resilience. This report includes a broad range of perspectives and experiences derived from many types of hazards and disasters in all parts of the country.




Climate and Disaster Resilience Financing in Small Island Developing States


Book Description

Storms, hurricanes, and cyclones have been a feature of life on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) for centuries. But climate change is now increasing the intensity of these disasters, as well as creating new developmental challenges - like rising sea levels and increasing ocean acidity - which not only challenge the development models of these countries. They challenge and threaten their own existence. This report examines the nature, scope and volume of concessional finance directed to SIDS to build resilience to climate change and natural disasters. It identifies challenges in the provision and use of financing for resilience. Yet, it is not just about challenges. It also illustrates the positive steps that SIDS are taking – and in many cases leading – to ensure that climate and disaster resilience is addressed as an integral part of their development. The report offers targeted recommendations to enhance the scope and quality of resilience financing, calling for the international community to consider financing for climate and disaster resilience that is appropriate for the challenges that SIDS face. The report is a jointly funded initiative of the OECD and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) at the World Bank.




Building Urban Resilience


Book Description

This handbook is a resource for enhancing disaster resilience in urban areas. It summarizes the guiding principles, tools, and practices in key economic sectors that can facilitate incorporation of resilience concepts into decisions about infrastructure investments and urban management that are integral to reducing disaster and climate risks.