› › Business Cycle Synchronization And Vertical Trade Integration

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

Author : Mr.Romain A Duval

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 46 pages

File Size : 16,5 MB

Release : 2014-04-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475523599

Get eBook

Book Description

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.



Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration

Author : Norbert Fiess

Publisher : World Bank Publications

Page : 19 pages

File Size : 27,15 MB

Release : 2005

Category : Business Cycle

ISBN :

Get eBook

Book Description

Abstract: In early January 2003, the United States and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua launched official negotiations for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), a treaty that would expand NAFTA-style trade barrier reductions to Central America. With deeper trade integration between Central America and the United States, it is expected that there will be closer links in business cycles between Central American countries and the United States. The paper finds a relatively low degree of business cycle synchronization within Central America as well as between Central America and the United States. The business cycle synchronization is expected to increase only modestly with further trade expansion, making the coordination of macroeconomic policies within CAFTA somewhat less of a priority.



Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

Author : Mr.Romain A Duval

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 46 pages

File Size : 44,6 MB

Release : 2014-04-03

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475522460

Get eBook

Book Description

This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.



Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 50 pages

File Size : 24,48 MB

Release : 2020-05-29

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1513536990

Get eBook

Book Description

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.





ICEBE 2020

Author : Darmawan Napitupulu

Publisher : European Alliance for Innovation

Page : 550 pages

File Size : 16,29 MB

Release : 2021-04-19

Category : Social Science

ISBN : 1631902989

Get eBook

Book Description

The Proceeding book presented the International Conference of Economics, Business & Entrepreneurship (ICEBE), which is an international conference hosted by Faculty of Economics & Business Universitas Lampung (FEB-UNILA) in collaboration with Magister Manajemen Teknologi Universitas Multimedia Nusantara. Total 50 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 85 submissions with the topics not limited to Finance, Accounting, Marketing and Digital Innovation. The ICEBE 2020 Conference was conducted virtually, on 01 October 2020 which had been attended by academics and researchers from various universities worldwide including practitioners with the theme Innovation and Sustainability in the Digital Age.



Asian Economic Integration in an Era of Global Uncertainty

Author : Shiro Armstrong

Publisher : ANU Press

Page : 315 pages

File Size : 13,72 MB

Release : 2018-01-08

Category : Political Science

ISBN : 1760461768

Get eBook

Book Description

The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking ‘America First’ promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region’s future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.



61⁄2 Decades of Global Trade and Income

Author : Sanjay Kalra

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 26 pages

File Size : 47,15 MB

Release : 2016-09-08

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1475535147

Get eBook

Book Description

Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 61⁄2 decades and its relationship with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and longer term context. The conjunctural context comes from, among other things, the “great trade collapse” (GTC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, and developments since then. The longer term context comes from the relative role of “globalization” and “technology” shocks in accounting for the short and long run variance of global exports and income. The paper estimates trade and income elasticities using ADL models taking account of structural breaks, and impulse response functions from structural VARs. The estimated SVAR model provides a lens to ask whether global trade and income are in a “new normal’ or only “back to (an old) normal” after the GTC and GFC.



Global Business Cycles

Author : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Publisher : International Monetary Fund

Page : 51 pages

File Size : 38,39 MB

Release : 2008-06-01

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1451870019

Get eBook

Book Description

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.



Macroeconometric Methods

Author : Pami Dua

Publisher : Springer Nature

Page : 394 pages

File Size : 16,4 MB

Release : 2023-04-08

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 9811975922

Get eBook

Book Description

This book provides empirical applications of macroeconometric methods through discussions on key issues in the Indian economy. It deals with issues of topical relevance in the arena of macroeconomics. The aim is to apply time series and financial econometric methods to macroeconomic issues of an emerging economy such as India. The data sources are given in each chapter, and students and researchers may replicate the analyses.The book is divided into three parts—Part I: Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy; Part II: Forecasting the Indian Economy and Part III: Business Cycles and Global Crises. It provides a holistic understanding of the techniques with each chapter delving into a relevant issue analysed using appropriate methods—Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods; Chapter 3: Monetary Policy Framework in India; Chapter 4: Determinants of Yields on Government Securities in India; Chapter 5: Monetar y Transmission in the Indian Economy; Chapter 6: India’s Bilateral Export Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel GMM Approach; Chapter 7: Aggregate and Sectoral Productivity Growth in the Indian Economy: Analysis and Determinants; Chapter 8: Forecasting the INR/USD Exchange Rate: A BVAR Framework; Chapter 9: Forecasting India’s Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: A FAVAR Study; Chapter 10: A Structural Macroeconometric Model for India; Chapter 11: International Synchronization of Growth Rate Cycles: An Analysis in Frequency Domain; Chapter 12: Inter-Linkages Between Asian and U.S. Stock Market Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis; Chapter 13: The Increasing Synchronization of International Recessions. Since the selection of issues is from macroeconomic aspects of the Indian economy, the book has wide applications and is useful for students and researchers of fields such as applied econometrics, time series econometrics, financial econometrics, forecasting methods and macroeconomics.