Increasing the Minimum Wage


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B U D G E T B R i E F - CALIFORNIA'S RECENT MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES


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State law requires the California Industrial Welfare Commission (IWC) to conduct "a full review of the adequacy of the minimum wage at least once every two years."3 Pursuant to this mandate, the IWC recently established a "wage board" composed of representatives from business and labor to review the state's minimum wage. [...] While the recent increases temporarily reversed a decade-long decline in earnings at the low end of the wage distribution, the purchasing power of the minimum wage remains low compared with its value prior to 1982. [...] At the federal level, the Economic Policy Institute found that the 1996 and 1997 minimum wage in- creases succeeded in raising the wages of 10 million workers while the impact on employment was "statistically insignificant ... [...] State law requires the California Industrial Welfare Commission (IWC) to conduct "a full review of the adequacy of the minimum wage at least once every two years."3 Pursuant to this mandate, the IWC recently established a "wage board" composed of representatives from business and labor to review the state's minimum wage. [...] While the recent increases temporarily reversed a decade-long decline in earnings at the low end of the wage distribution, the purchasing power of the minimum wage remains low compared with its value prior to 1982.










B U D G E T B R i E F - MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES BOOST THE EARNINGS OF LOW-WAGE CALIFORNIA WORKERS.


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A Rising Minimum Wage Appears to Contribute to Rising Earnings The hourly wages of those at the bottom of the earnings distribution have risen substantially since 1996, when the first of a series of actions raised the state and federal minimum wage.1 Between 1996 and 2003, the inflation-adjusted hourly earnings of the California workers at the 10th and 20th percentiles of the earnings distribution. [...] 2 earnings distribution rose by a larger percentage (19.9 percent) than those of the worker at the 20th percentile (15.9 percent), and the earnings of the worker at the 20th percentile increased by a larger percentage than those of the worker at the median (9.9 percent). [...] However, the earnings of the worker at the 10th percentile fell by a larger percentage (9.9 percent) than those of the worker at the 20th percentile (8.4 percent), and the earnings of the worker at the 20th percentile fell by a greater percentage than those of the worker at the median (4.0 percent). [...] A rise in the minimum wage is more likely to affect the earnings of low-wage workers than it is likely to affect the wages of the worker at the middle of the earnings distribution. [...] However, the average annual increase in Retail Trade employment lagged the average annual increase in wage and salary employment.3 The Purchasing Power of California's Minimum Wage Has Declined Over Time While recent state and federal actions have partly reversed the erosion in the purchasing power of California's minimum wage, the inflation-adjusted value of the minimum wage remains 28 percent lo.




Myth and Measurement


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From David Card, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and Alan Krueger, a provocative challenge to conventional wisdom about the minimum wage David Card and Alan B. Krueger have already made national news with their pathbreaking research on the minimum wage. Here they present a powerful new challenge to the conventional view that higher minimum wages reduce jobs for low-wage workers. In a work that has important implications for public policy as well as for the direction of economic research, the authors put standard economic theory to the test, using data from a series of recent episodes, including the 1992 increase in New Jersey's minimum wage, the 1988 rise in California's minimum wage, and the 1990–91 increases in the federal minimum wage. In each case they present a battery of evidence showing that increases in the minimum wage lead to increases in pay, but no loss in jobs. A distinctive feature of Card and Krueger's research is the use of empirical methods borrowed from the natural sciences, including comparisons between the "treatment" and "control" groups formed when the minimum wage rises for some workers but not for others. In addition, the authors critically reexamine the previous literature on the minimum wage and find that it, too, lacks support for the claim that a higher minimum wage cuts jobs. Finally, the effects of the minimum wage on family earnings, poverty outcomes, and the stock market valuation of low-wage employers are documented. Overall, this book calls into question the standard model of the labor market that has dominated economists' thinking on the minimum wage. In addition, it will shift the terms of the debate on the minimum wage in Washington and in state legislatures throughout the country. With a new preface discussing new data, Myth and Measurement continues to shift the terms of the debate on the minimum wage.







Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Policies in California and Nationwide


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We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre-analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City-specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low-income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low-income, with one exception that may reflect prior trends.







Minimum Wage


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