Can We Be Wrong? The Problem of Textual Evidence in a Time of Data


Book Description

This Element tackles the problem of generalization with respect to text-based evidence in the field of literary studies. When working with texts, how can we move, reliably and credibly, from individual observations to more general beliefs about the world? The onset of computational methods has highlighted major shortcomings of traditional approaches to texts when it comes to working with small samples of evidence. This Element combines a machine learning-based approach to detect the prevalence and nature of generalization across tens of thousands of sentences from different disciplines alongside a robust discussion of potential solutions to the problem of the generalizability of textual evidence. It exemplifies the way mixed methods can be used in complementary fashion to develop nuanced, evidence-based arguments about complex disciplinary issues in a data-driven research environment.




How Not to Be Wrong


Book Description

A brilliant tour of mathematical thought and a guide to becoming a better thinker, How Not to Be Wrong shows that math is not just a long list of rules to be learned and carried out by rote. Math touches everything we do; It's what makes the world make sense. Using the mathematician's methods and hard-won insights-minus the jargon-professor and popular columnist Jordan Ellenberg guides general readers through his ideas with rigor and lively irreverence, infusing everything from election results to baseball to the existence of God and the psychology of slime molds with a heightened sense of clarity and wonder. Armed with the tools of mathematics, we can see the hidden structures beneath the messy and chaotic surface of our daily lives. How Not to Be Wrong shows us how--Publisher's description.




Sixty Million Frenchmen Can’t Be Wrong


Book Description

"Sixty Million Frenchmen does its job marvelously well. After reading it, you may still think the French are arrogant, aloof, and high-handed, but you will know why." --Wall Street Journal




Being Wrong


Book Description

To err is human. Yet most of us go through life assuming (and sometimes insisting) that we are right about nearly everything, from the origins of the universe to how to load the dishwasher. In Being Wrong, journalist Kathryn Schulz explores why we find it so gratifying to be right and so maddening to be mistaken. Drawing on thinkers as varied as Augustine, Darwin, Freud, Gertrude Stein, Alan Greenspan, and Groucho Marx, she shows that error is both a given and a gift—one that can transform our worldviews, our relationships, and ourselves.




Why You Will Marry the Wrong Person


Book Description

A collection of essays extended from The New York Times' most-read article of 2016. Anyone we might marry could, of course, be a little bit wrong for us. We don’t expect bliss every day. The fault isn’t entirely our own; it has to do with the devilish truth that anyone we’re liable to meet is going to be rather wrong, in some fascinating way or another, because this is simply what all humans happen to be – including, sadly, ourselves. This collection of essays proposes that we don’t need perfection to be happy. So long as we enter our relationships in the right spirit, we have every chance of coping well enough with, and even delighting in, the inevitable and distinctive wrongness that lies in ourselves and our beloveds.




Factfulness


Book Description

INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER “One of the most important books I’ve ever read—an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world.” – Bill Gates “Hans Rosling tells the story of ‘the secret silent miracle of human progress’ as only he can. But Factfulness does much more than that. It also explains why progress is so often secret and silent and teaches readers how to see it clearly.” —Melinda Gates "Factfulness by Hans Rosling, an outstanding international public health expert, is a hopeful book about the potential for human progress when we work off facts rather than our inherent biases." - Former U.S. President Barack Obama Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of only carrying opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends—what percentage of the world’s population live in poverty; why the world’s population is increasing; how many girls finish school—we systematically get the answers wrong. So wrong that a chimpanzee choosing answers at random will consistently outguess teachers, journalists, Nobel laureates, and investment bankers. In Factfulness, Professor of International Health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two long-time collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens. They reveal the ten instincts that distort our perspective—from our tendency to divide the world into two camps (usually some version of us and them) to the way we consume media (where fear rules) to how we perceive progress (believing that most things are getting worse). Our problem is that we don’t know what we don’t know, and even our guesses are informed by unconscious and predictable biases. It turns out that the world, for all its imperfections, is in a much better state than we might think. That doesn’t mean there aren’t real concerns. But when we worry about everything all the time instead of embracing a worldview based on facts, we can lose our ability to focus on the things that threaten us most. Inspiring and revelatory, filled with lively anecdotes and moving stories, Factfulness is an urgent and essential book that will change the way you see the world and empower you to respond to the crises and opportunities of the future. --- “This book is my last battle in my life-long mission to fight devastating ignorance...Previously I armed myself with huge data sets, eye-opening software, an energetic learning style and a Swedish bayonet for sword-swallowing. It wasn’t enough. But I hope this book will be.” Hans Rosling, February 2017.




WRONG


Book Description

The industrialized world has long been rocked by economic crises, often caused by policy makers who are guided by ideology rather than cold, hard analysis. WRONG examines the worst economic policy blunders of the last 250 years, providing a valuable guide book for policy makers... and the citizens who elect them.




What on Earth Can Go Wrong


Book Description

Richard Fenning has spent three decades advising multinational companies on volatile geopolitics and severe security crises. He was CEO of the British firm Control Risks for 14 years. His career coincided with the glory years of globalization, the rise of China, the tumult of the Middle East wars, a new vicious form of terrorism, the transforming impact of digital technology, and America's retreat from leadership. Offering him a rare insight into what happens when people and organizations come under enormous stress, it dispelled any illusions that the world is ordered, predictable, or fair. But amid the chaos and upheaval, he also found humanity and humor. In a whirlwind tour that takes us from the battlefields of Iraq to the back streets of Bogotà, from the steamy Niger delta to the chill of Putin's Moscow, he looks back with wit and insight on the people and places he has got to know, while also offering some timely thoughts about the relationship between risk and danger in a terrifyingly changeable world.




Failing in the Field


Book Description

A revealing look at the common causes of failures in randomized control experiments during field reseach—and how to avoid them All across the social sciences, from development economics to political science, researchers are going into the field to collect data and learn about the world. Successful randomized controlled trials have brought about enormous gains, but less is learned when projects fail. In Failing in the Field, Dean Karlan and Jacob Appel examine the taboo subject of failure in field research so that researchers might avoid the same pitfalls in future work. Drawing on the experiences of top social scientists working in developing countries, this book describes five common categories of failures, reviews six case studies in detail, and concludes with reflections on best (and worst) practices for designing and running field projects, with an emphasis on randomized controlled trials. Failing in the Field is an invaluable “how-not-to” guide to conducting fieldwork and running randomized controlled trials in development settings.




12,000 Canaries Can’t Be Wrong


Book Description

A doctor explains how our environment affects our health, with a nine-step plan to help with fibromyalgia, IBS, and other conditions. In the old days, canaries were used to detect carbon monoxide in coal mines. Today, countless people suffer due to toxins and chemicals that surround us in the modern world, and Dr. John Molot, over the decades, has seen more than twelve thousand patients with environmentally linked illnesses. In this book, Molot explains how the environment contributes to the development and progression of many common conditions and illnesses, including chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia and other pain disorders, chemical sensitivity, irritable bowel syndrome, allergies and asthma, diabetes, autistic spectrum disorder, and even obesity—and offers an action plan that will make a positive difference to our health, and to the health of our children. “Compelling and well-written, this is a solidly researched, detailed explanation of the causes and effects of numerous modern health issues . . . It’s possible to skip straight to the treatment plan, but it would be a shame, considering how persuasive, fascinating, and often mind-blowing Molot’s case is.” —Publishers Weekly