The Off-Shore Petroleum Resources of South-East Asia


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l INTEREST in the off-shore petroleum resources of South-East Asia was manifested in the 1960s when development in off-shore technol ogy allowed oil companies to search beyond prospective land areas. The dramatic increases in oil prices in the early 1970s but more particularly the events of 1973 and 1974, when world oil prices were quadrupled by the oil exporting nations and major supply cutbacks were experienced by certain developed nations, further heightened this interest. Cost/price relationships had not only improved and made off-shore oil in hitherto less attractive areas commercially prospective; nations that were net importers and whose international exchange reserves were strained by the high import costs of foreign oil also found it prudent to begin looking for indigenous resources and to encourage such search. The search for and discovery of petroleum in South-East Asia on the scale in which it has been conducted in the last ten years was new to the region. It was natural, therefore, for students of South-East Asia to raise questions about its progress, questions concerning in ternational relations, social impacts, and economic policy im plications. The purpose of this study is to try and answer the question: 'What are the potentials for conflicts or cooperation among nations arising from the search for petroleum resources in the seabeds of South-East Asia?' The problem of conflicts or cooperation among nations is a topic that has many facets and may involve a multitude of issues, for example, legal, economic, technical, security, social, etc.




The Supply of Petroleum Reserves in South-East Asia


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which may be termed 'political. risks'-may be important deter minants of investment. After taking such risks into consideration in the exploration and development stage, a firm computing the pres ent value of its probable income stream must consider several other factors. In addition to the current rate of production, it must con sider these: (I) engineering limits to the rate of extraction in any given period, (2) physical limits to the total amount of the resource that can be produced within a given location, and (3) limits to the availability of new petroleum sources at the same costs as at the present location. It might be useful at this point to note that the firm as an explo ration agent in South-East Asia operates largely as a contractor to the host government who has ownership and final control over the petroleum resources. The group of suppliers of petroleum reserves in the region is characterized by the presence of the major com panies, directly or through subsidiaries, as well as by many small er, and even independent, companies. Three major companies currently dominate exploration and producing operations in two countries-Exxon and Shell in Malaysia, Shell in Brunei. In Indonesia, Caltex and Stanvac dominate production. Outside Malaysia and Brunei the bulk of new exploration is conducted by relatively smaller companies side-by-side with the major companies like Exxon, Gulf, Mobil, Shell, and Texaco.




Proceedings


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South Asia


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