Author : Steven R. David
Publisher : JHU Press
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 26,28 MB
Release : 2008-08-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 080188988X
Introduction : a new kind of threat -- Saudi Arabia : oil fields ablaze -- Pakistan : loose nukes -- Mexico : a flood of refugees -- China : collapse of a great power -- Conclusions : the coming storm.
Author : Steven R. David
Publisher : Johns Hopkins University Press+ORM
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 21,3 MB
Release : 2008-08-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0801895103
A look at how civil upheaval in foreign nations is becoming a greater threat to the United States than international warfare, and what must be done. Civil war and other types of radical domestic upheaval are replacing international war as the preeminent threat to American security and economic well-being, according to Steven R. David. Catastrophic Consequences argues that civil conflicts are of even greater importance than deliberate efforts to harm the United States because the damage they inflict is unintended and therefore impossible to deter. David examines the prospects for and potential aftereffects of instability in four nations vital to U.S. national interests: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, China, and Mexico. It is not a rising China that threatens America, but one that is falling apart. Likewise, the United States should not worry over a hostile Pakistani regime, but rather one that cannot keep the country together. Similarly, a conflict-torn Mexico or Saudi Arabia poses a far greater danger to America than does either of those states growing stronger. In assessing these threats, David contends that the United States’s only viable option is to view other-state civil upheaval similarly to natural disasters and to develop a coherent, effective emergency response mechanism, which does not exist today in any systemic, nationwide form. “David is not a doomsayer or an advocate or liberal interventionism. He does not argue that the United States can or should mediate in civil wars. Instead, he calls for a cold-hearted examination of countries suffering collapse, with disciplined attention to the potential damage to American interests . . . David’s book offers a promising new beginning for a difficult and pressing set of issues.” —Jeremi Suri, Political Science Quarterly
Author : Christian Koeberl
Publisher : Geological Society of America
Page : 764 pages
File Size : 20,53 MB
Release : 2002
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780813723563
Author : Alexey V. Yablokov
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 345 pages
File Size : 10,93 MB
Release : 2010-01-26
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 1573317578
This volume, written by leading authorities from Eastern Europe, outlines the history of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Although there has been much discussion concerning the impacts of nuclear accidents, and Chernobyl in particular, never before has there been a comprehensive presentation of all the available information concerning the health and environmental effects of the low dose radioactive contaminants that were emitted from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The official discussions emanating from the IAEA and associated UN agencies (e.g. the Chernobyl Forum reports) have largely downplayed or ignored many of the findings reported in the Eastern European scientific literature and as a consequence these reports have erred on the side of negative findings simply because much of what was known was not included in their assessments. This new book provides a complete and extensive summary of all known research, including that published in Russian and Ukrainian, and provides new insights to the likely long term health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents. NOTE: Annals volumes are available for sale as individual books or as a journal. For information on institutional journal subscriptions, please visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/nyas. ACADEMY MEMBERS: Please contact the New York Academy of Sciences directly to place your order (www.nyas.org). Members of the New York Academy of Science receive full-text access to the Annals online and discounts on print volumes. Please visit http://www.nyas.org/MemberCenter/Join.aspx for more information about becoming a member.
Author : David Sepkoski
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 368 pages
File Size : 39,88 MB
Release : 2023-12-06
Category : History
ISBN : 0226829529
A history of scientific ideas about extinction that explains why we learned to value diversity as a precious resource at the same time as we learned to “think catastrophically” about extinction. We live in an age in which we are repeatedly reminded—by scientists, by the media, by popular culture—of the looming threat of mass extinction. We’re told that human activity is currently producing a sixth mass extinction, perhaps of even greater magnitude than the five previous geological catastrophes that drastically altered life on Earth. Indeed, there is a very real concern that the human species may itself be poised to go the way of the dinosaurs, victims of the most recent mass extinction some 65 million years ago. How we interpret the causes and consequences of extinction and their ensuing moral imperatives is deeply embedded in the cultural values of any given historical moment. And, as David Sepkoski reveals, the history of scientific ideas about extinction over the past two hundred years—as both a past and a current process—is implicated in major changes in the way Western society has approached biological and cultural diversity. It seems self-evident to most of us that diverse ecosystems and societies are intrinsically valuable, but the current fascination with diversity is a relatively recent phenomenon. In fact, the way we value diversity depends crucially on our sense that it is precarious—that it is something actively threatened, and that its loss could have profound consequences. In Catastrophic Thinking, Sepkoski uncovers how and why we learned to value diversity as a precious resource at the same time as we learned to think catastrophically about extinction.
Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 49,79 MB
Release : 2003-08-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0309167922
The Oklahoma City bombing, intentional crashing of airliners on September 11, 2001, and anthrax attacks in the fall of 2001 have made Americans acutely aware of the impacts of terrorism. These events and continued threats of terrorism have raised questions about the impact on the psychological health of the nation and how well the public health infrastructure is able to meet the psychological needs that will likely result. Preparing for the Psychological Consequences of Terrorism highlights some of the critical issues in responding to the psychological needs that result from terrorism and provides possible options for intervention. The committee offers an example for a public health strategy that may serve as a base from which plans to prevent and respond to the psychological consequences of a variety of terrorism events can be formulated. The report includes recommendations for the training and education of service providers, ensuring appropriate guidelines for the protection of service providers, and developing public health surveillance for preevent, event, and postevent factors related to psychological consequences.
Author : Kevin D. Burton
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 13,81 MB
Release : 2012-10-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1466504641
The author’s previous work, Managing Emerging Risk: The Capstone of Preparedness considered the notion of risk and what constitutes risk assessment. It presented scenarios to introduce readers to areas of critical thinking around probability and possibility. Six months after the book’s publication, many of the scenarios came true, and other, more menacing risks emerged. Catastrophic Impact and Loss: The Capstone of Impact Assessment is the second stone to be laid in a path toward a more mindful practice of emergency management, focusing on the impacts caused by risk and offering a complete approach to measure and manage them. Providing a true understanding of what it is to be "in harm’s way," this essential book details the devastation and effects that both public and private enterprise must be prepared for in the event of a catastrophe. The book examines: Impact assessment as an essential piece of information and the fundamental flaws that hinder the process The development of the digital age and postmodernism and the five guiding principles of postmodern impact assessments How to establish an impact horizon and effect a clear scope statement that includes all in-scope and out-of-scope assets and locations Problems that occur when we fail to create impact assessments that align with internal organizational values, federal and state laws, or industry regulations—and how to use the guiding principles to address these problems Methods for developing solid analytical models for impact assessment—exacting logical, relevant, and clear language and taxonomies How to address overrides and deviations based on expert opinion, cultural needs, and the application of common sense Key challenges in postmodern business impact assessment and how we can best meet those challenges by understanding the concept of the uncanny valley Readers who master the principles in this book will better understand the link between the potential damage of an event and how information informs every decision to prepare for, respond to, mitigate, and recover.
Author : Nick Bostrom
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 577 pages
File Size : 46,51 MB
Release : 2011-09-29
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 0199606501
A Global Catastrophic Risk is one that has the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. This book focuses on such risks arising from natural catastrophes (Earth-based or beyond), nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and social collapse.
Author : B. John Garrick
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 374 pages
File Size : 18,58 MB
Release : 2008-10-27
Category : Science
ISBN : 0080923453
The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. - Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk - Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats - Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes - Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks
Author : James William Martin
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 16,23 MB
Release : 2011-09-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0313393125
In this book, interrelationships between more than 40 recent catastrophic events are explored, discussing failures of structures and machines, information technology, regulatory agencies, security designs, and more. The world is full of wonderful products and services that occasionally disappoint and even harm us. Unexpected Consequences: Why The Things We Trust Fail explores the reasons these failures occur, examining them from technological, human, and organizational perspectives. Using more than 40 recent catastrophic events to illustrate its points, the book discusses structural and machine failure, but also the often-overlooked failure of people and of systems related to such things as information technology, healthcare, and security. As the book demonstrates, faulty technology played a surprisingly small part in many of the scrutinized disasters. Author James William Martin finds cognitive factors and organizational dynamics, including ethics, are major contributors to most unexpected and catastrophic failures causing loss of life and extensive property damage. With that fresh perspective in mind, Martin is able to suggest remedies that address service failure and just may help prevent future disasters from taking place.
