China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies


Book Description

China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.




China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies


Book Description

China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.




China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies


Book Description

While China’s growth gathered momentum in 2017, rebalancing was uneven and decelerated along many dimensions reflecting the temporary factors behind the growth pickup. Going forward, rebalancing is expected to proceed as these temporary factors recede, but elevated income inequality and leverage will remain a challenge. The authorities are already pursuing several pro-rebalancing policies which could be expanded to support each dimension of rebalancing while reducing trade-offs between them.




People's Republic of China


Book Description

This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers and prospects for high levels of savings in China. China has one of the highest levels of national savings in the world, which is at the heart of its external and internal imbalances. High and rising household savings have mainly resulted from demographic changes as a result of the one-child policy and the breakdown of the social safety net during the transition from a planned to a market economy. Demographic changes will put downward pressure on national savings. Policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and faster and to boost consumption.




Inequality in China – Trends, Drivers and Policy Remedies


Book Description

China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s and rendered China among the most unequal countries in the world. This trend has started to reverse as China has experienced a modest decline in inequality since 2008. This paper identifies various drivers behind these trends – including structural changes such as urbanization and aging and, more recently, policy initiatives to combat it. It finds that policies will need to play an important role in curbing inequality in the future, as projected structural trends will put further strain on equity considerations. In particular, fiscal policy reforms have the potential to enhance inclusiveness and equity, both on the tax and expenditure side.




A Comprehensive Package of Macroeconomic Policy Measures for Implementing China’s Climate Mitigation Strategy


Book Description

This paper presents ways for China to achieve its climate goals while also attain high-quality growth—growth that is balanced, inclusive, and green. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is calibrated to China, multiple scenarios are considered that incorporate a sequence of layered policies: (i) frontloading mitigation with an earlier emissions peak, (ii) power market reforms, and (iii) economic rebalancing. The results highlight that these policies can significantly contribute to the success of the climate strategy overall, including by lowering the shadow price of carbon as well as the associated mitigation costs. Distribution analysis offers proposals to lessen the impact on vulnerable households.




The Evolution of China’s Political Economy


Book Description

For years, China’s rapid economic transformation was hailed as a successful project that lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. However, in recent times, the Chinese narrative has taken a more negative turn in the eyes of the West. Much of this has to do with the US perception about the role of the Chinese state in its economy and its military build-up, especially in the South China Sea. There’s no question, China’s complex economy can be difficult to understand. Information is often unclear and incomplete, and its data are not always reliable. However, this book presents the reader with a clear picture of China’s economy and how it compares to other advanced economies, mainly the United States. The book unwraps the key features and structures of China’s economy. Moreover, it examines and shows the similarities and differences in comparison with other like economies. In that effort, it underscores the differences by evaluating their benefits as well as their disadvantages, against the backdrop of China’s incomplete transition to a market economy. This along with its governance structure becomes the crucial components shaping the way key stakeholders will act and react to opportunities and incentives as that economy evolves. The book supplements the definition of globalization for the academic, the student, the professional and anyone else interested in its positive and negative effects. It is also a good fit for anyone who wants to understand China’s three elements of political economy: global trade, political power and its image on the global stage.




China 2049


Book Description

How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.




The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus


Book Description

China’s current account surplus has declined significantly from its peak in 2008 and the external position in 2018 was in line with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. While cyclical factors and expansionary credit and fiscal policies contributed, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by economic rebalancing from investment to consumption, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) towards equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening up to ensure excessive surpluses do not return, and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, but with different impact across countries. The analysis is based on data as of July 2019.




Multi-Polar Capitalism


Book Description

History teaches us important lessons, provided we can discern its patterns. Multi-Polar Capitalism applies this insight to the crucial, yet often underappreciated issue of international monetary relations. When international monetary systems get first put into place successfully, such as the “classic” gold standard in 1879, Bretton Woods in 1945, or the dollar standard in 1982, they structure relations between the system’s centre and the rest of the world so that others can catch up to the leader. But this growth-promoting constellation, a vector for accelerating globalization, runs its course eventually amidst mounting overproduction conditions in key sectors and spreading financial instability. Such periods of global crisis, from the Great Depression of the 1930s to stagflation in the 1970s and creeping deflation during much of the 2010s, force restructuring and policy reforms until conditions are ripe for a renewed phase of sustained expansion. We are facing such a turning point now. As we are moving from a US-dominated world economy towards a multi-polar configuration, we will also see the longstanding dollar standard give way to a multi-currency system. Three currency blocs rooted in the dollar, euro, and yuan will be dominated respectively by the United States, the European Union, and China, each a power centre representing a distinct variant of capitalism. Their complex mix of competition and cooperation necessitates new “rules of the game” promoting the shared pursuit of global public goods, in particular the impending zero-carbon transition, lest we allow fragmentation and conflict shape this next chapter of our history. Multi-Polar Capitalism adds to a century of research and debate on long waves, those roughly half-century cycles first identified by the great Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the early 1920s, by highlighting the role of the international monetary system in this distinct boom-and-bust pattern.