Chronicle of a Decline Foretold


Book Description

China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.




China's Economy in Transition


Book Description

China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.




Future of Factory Asia


Book Description

This book assesses the challenges confronting the Factory Asia model. It examines how countries that are already part of Factory Asia can move up the value chain, and how economies that currently stand outside the parameters of Factory Asia can find ways to join the global network production system. The book hinges on two tasks: first, how fast can Asia expand its own domestic and regional markets; and second, how fast can Asia upgrade its competitiveness in the manufacturing sector. As analyzed in great detail and depth in this book, small and big obstacles stand in the way of fulfilling these tasks. Without clever economic reasoning, shrewd strategy, and immense political entrepreneurship, the new Factory Asia will remain as an unfinished agenda. This book will serve as catalyst for officials, experts and industries to facilitate a larger public dialogue in and out of Asia, and help generate momentum for the transformation of Asia into a more inclusive and sustainable platform for the future of Factory Asia. Contents Tables and Figures Contributors Foreword Executive Summary Abbreviations PartⅠ Beyond Factory Asia 1. Beyond Factory Asia: Fuelling Growth in a Changing World 2. Can Free Trade Agreements Support the Growth or Spread of Factory Asia PartⅡ Outsourcing Risks of Asian Manufacturing and Services 3. The Effect of International Outsourcing on Job Growth in the Republic of Korea 4. Do Small and Medium Enterprises Gain from Global Production Networks Evidence from the Republic of Korea 5. Changing Competitiveness of the Japanese Manufacturing Sector and Firms in Regional Production Networks in Asia 6. Services Sector Integration in Asia: Emerging Regional Service Business Models PartⅢ Source of Germany’s Competitiveness in Manufacturing 7. What has been Maintaining Germany’s Competitiveness in Manufacturing




China's Trump Card


Book Description

Discover the impact of blockchain on the trade relationship between the world's two largest economies China's Trump Card: Cryptocurrency and its Game-Changing Role in Sino-US Trade grapples with the fascinating issue of the effect of digital currencies on world trade and the relationship between China and the United States in particular. Full of forward-looking insights, solid data analysis, extensive collection of relevant literature and incisive observations, author Raymond Yeung compellingly argues that cryptocurrencies will have a significant role to play in harmonizing geopolitical power struggles. Covering all the subjects required for a full understanding of the future of the Sino-US trade relationship, China's Trump Card discusses: The looming risks of de-dollarization in the wake of de-globalization The pressing need to construct a new currency standard superior to the fiat money regime in response to the global imbalance China's diversification of its offshore portfolios to include alternative investments The implications of Facebook's plan to create a blockchain-based digital currency The fact that blockchain offers a fungible asset class option for China's reserves investment, which can be relatively independent of political considerations This book is perfect for business leaders, investors, financial analysts, policymakers, economists, fintech developers and others who have a stake in the outcome of the blossoming trade disputes between the United States and China.




IMF Research Bulletin, March 2013


Book Description

The Research Summaries in the March 2013 Research Bulletin discuss "Trade Finance and Its Role in the Great Trade Collapse" (JaeBin Ahn) and "Sovereign Debt: How to Track Who Is Buying and Selling It" (Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on the Implications of Global Supply Chains for Real Effective Exchange Rates" (Rudolfs Bems). Readers can also find in this issue a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications. The Bulletin also includes a call for papers for a research conference and information on free access to the IMF Economic Review in April.




Minimum Wages, Collective Bargaining and Economic Development in Asia and Europe


Book Description

This book offers a labour perspective on wage-setting institutions, collective bargaining and economic development. Sixteen country chapters, eight on Asia and eight on Europe, focus in particular on the role and effectiveness of minimum wages in the context of national trends in income inequality, economic development, and social security.




Currency Power


Book Description

Why the dollar will remain the world's most powerful currency Monetary rivalry is a fact of life in the world economy. Intense competition between international currencies like the US dollar, Europe's euro, and the Chinese yuan is profoundly political, going to the heart of the global balance of power. But what exactly is the relationship between currency and power, and what does it portend for the geopolitical standing of the United States, Europe, and China? Popular opinion holds that the days of the dollar, long the world’s dominant currency, are numbered. By contrast, Currency Power argues that the current monetary rivalry still greatly favors America’s greenback. Benjamin Cohen shows why neither the euro nor the yuan will supplant the dollar at the top of the global currency hierarchy. Cohen presents an innovative analysis of currency power and emphasizes the importance of separating out the various roles that international money might have. After systematically exploring the links between currency internationalization and state power, Cohen turns to the state of play among today’s top currencies. The greenback, he contends, is the "indispensable currency"—the one that the world can’t do without. Only the dollar is backed by all the economic and political resources that make a currency powerful. Meanwhile, the euro is severely handicapped by structural defects in the design of its governance mechanisms, and the yuan suffers from various practical limitations in both finance and politics. Contrary to today’s growing opinion, Currency Power demonstrates that the dollar will continue to be the leading global currency for some time to come.




The New Great Game


Book Description

China's rise has elicited envy, admiration, and fear among its neighbors. Although much has been written about this, previous coverage portrays events as determined almost entirely by Beijing. Such accounts minimize or ignore the other side of the equation: namely, what individuals, corporate actors, and governments in other countries do to attract, shape, exploit, or deflect Chinese involvement. The New Great Game analyzes and explains how Chinese policies and priorities interact with the goals and actions of other countries in the region. To explore the reciprocal nature of relations between China and countries in South and Central Asia, The New Great Game employs numerous policy-relevant lenses: geography, culture, history, resource endowments, and levels of development. This volume seeks to discover what has happened during the three decades of China's rise and why it happened as it did, with the goal of deeper understanding of Chinese and other national priorities and policies and of discerning patterns among countries and issues.




China's Economic Culture


Book Description

China's spectacular rise challenges established economic moulds, both at the national level, with the concept of "state capitalism", and at the firm level, with the notion of indigenous "Chinese management practices". However, both Chinese and Western observers emphasise the transitional nature of the reforms, thereby leaving open the question as to whether China's reform process is really a fast catch-up process, with ultimate convergence to global standards, or something different. This book, by a leading economist and sinologist, argues that "culture" is an exceptionally useful tool to help understand fully the current picture of the Chinese economy. Drawing on a range of disciplines including social psychology, cognitive sciences, institutional economics and Chinese studies, the book examines long-run path dependencies and cultural legacies, and shows how these contribute crucially to the current cultural construction of economic systems, business organisations and patterns of embedding the economy into society and politics.




The Chinese Macroeconomy and Financial System


Book Description

This new textbook on the Chinese economy clearly presents all that the world's second largest economy has accomplished, as well as what work remains to be done. As economic development in China for the last 30 years has been mostly "top down," this text focuses on the macroeconomic and monetary sides of the economy. Utilising case studies throughout, the book uses not only the traditional macroeconomics tools in explaining the Chinese economy, but also takes a novel approach by assessing China as a company. Through employment of models from finance, such as cash flows and valuations, the text is able to dig deeper into understanding the fundamental characteristics of the Chinese economy. The book also presents extremely useful analysis of the comparisons and contrasts between Chinese economic activity and that of the U.S. economy. eResources including chapter questions with solutions and lecture slides will be available on this webpage.