Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles
Author :
Publisher : "la Caixa"
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 37,42 MB
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ISBN :
Author :
Publisher : "la Caixa"
Page : 50 pages
File Size : 37,42 MB
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Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 55 pages
File Size : 18,19 MB
Release : 2009-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 145187359X
A puzzle in international macroeconomics is that observed real exchange rates are highly volatile. Standard international real business cycle (IRBC) models cannot reproduce this fact. We show that TFP processes for the U.S. and the "rest of the world," is characterized by a vector error correction (VECM) and that adding cointegrated technology shocks to the standard IRBC model helps explaining the observed high real exchange rate volatility. Also we show that the observed increase of the real exchange rate volatility with respect to output in the last 20 year can be explained by changes in the parameter of the VECM.
Author : Pau Rabanal
Publisher :
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 35,55 MB
Release : 2014
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ISBN :
A central puzzle in international macroeconomics is that observed real exchange rates are highly volatile. Standard International Real Business Cycle (IRBC) models cannot reproduce this fact when calibrated using conventional parameterizations, and can only generate one fourth of the real exchange rate volatility observed in the data. Typically, IRBC models are solved assuming that total factor productivity (TFP) processes are stationary. In this paper, we first show that TFP processes for the U.S. and the quot;rest of the worldquot; have a unit root, are cointegrated, and can be jointly characterized with a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Then, we explore the implications of extending an otherwise standard international real business cycle model that allows for cointegrated technology shocks. We show that the model can account for the high real exchange rate volatility observed in the data without having to rely on any particular nominal or real friction. Also, we show that the increase of relative volatility of the real exchange rate with respect to output in the last 20 years can be explained by changes in the parameter estimates of the VECM.
Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 43,35 MB
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1463990197
Real exchange rates exhibit important low-frequency fluctuations. This makes the analysis of real exchange rates at all frequencies a more sound exercise than the typical business cycle one, which compares actual and simulated data after the Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to both. A simple two-country, two-good model, as described in Heathcote and Perri (2002), can explain the volatility of the real exchange rate when all frequencies are studied. The puzzle is that the model generates too much persistence of the real exchange rate instead of too little, as the business cycle analysis asserts. Finally, we show that the introduction of adjustment costs in production and in portfolio holdings allows us to reconcile theory and this feature of the data.
Author : Josep M. Colomer
Publisher : "la Caixa"
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 48,33 MB
Release : 2010
Category : Central-local government relations
ISBN : 8469330217
Author :
Publisher : "la Caixa"
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 17,80 MB
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Author : Alejandro Cuñat
Publisher :
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 17,80 MB
Release : 2002
Category : Business cycles
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Author : Bernhard Pfaff
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 193 pages
File Size : 26,89 MB
Release : 2008-09-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0387759670
This book is designed for self study. The reader can apply the theoretical concepts directly within R by following the examples.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 49,59 MB
Release : 2009-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1451874243
In most macroeconomic models, the substitutability between domestic and foreign goods is calibrated using aggregated data. This imposes homogeneous elasticities across goods, and the calibration is only valid under this assumption. If elasticities are heterogeneous, the aggregate substitutability is a weighted average of good-specific elasticities, which in general cannot be inferred from aggregated data. We identify structurally the substitutability in US goods using multilateral trade data. We impose homogeneity, and find an aggregate elasticity similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates. It is more than twice larger with sectoral heterogeneity. We discuss the implications in various areas of international economics.
Author : Katarina Juselius
Publisher : OUP Oxford
Page : 478 pages
File Size : 47,60 MB
Release : 2006-12-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0191622966
This valuable text provides a comprehensive introduction to VAR modelling and how it can be applied. In particular, the author focuses on the properties of the Cointegrated VAR model and its implications for macroeconomic inference when data are non-stationary. The text provides a number of insights into the links between statistical econometric modelling and economic theory and gives a thorough treatment of identification of the long-run and short-run structure as well as of the common stochastic trends and the impulse response functions, providing in each case illustrations of applicability. This book presents the main ingredients of the Copenhagen School of Time-Series Econometrics in a transparent and coherent framework. The distinguishing feature of this school is that econometric theory and applications have been developed in close cooperation. The guiding principle is that good econometric work should take econometrics, institutions, and economics seriously. The author uses a single data set throughout most of the book to guide the reader through the econometric theory while also revealing the full implications for the underlying economic model. To test ensure full understanding the book concludes with the introduction of two new data sets to combine readers understanding of econometric theory and economic models, with economic reality.