Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles


Book Description

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.




Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean


Book Description

After mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.




IMF Working Papers


Book Description




The Contribution of Domestic, Regional and International Factors to Latin America's Business Cycle


Book Description

This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multicountry time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries' factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.




Economic Development of Latin America


Book Description

"This is an introductory survey of the history and recent development of Latin American economy and society from colonial times to the establishment of the military regime in Chile. In the second edition the historical perspective has been enlarged and important events since the Cuban Revolution, such as the agrarian reforms of Peru and Chile, the difficulties of the Central America Common Market and LAFTA, the acceleration of industrialisation in Brazil and the consolidation of the Cuban economy, are discussed. The statistical information has been extended to the early 1970s and the demographic data to 1975"--Back cover.




Global Business Cycles and Developing Countries


Book Description

This book investigates how global business cycles impact the economies of developing countries. Global business cycles, the wave-like movements of economic expansion followed by contraction in aggregate economic activities, impact all economies comprising the global economy. The patterns being shown in developing countries correspond increasingly to those in the global north, and yet there is a relative dearth of studies exploring whether global business cycles exist and how they operate in developing economies. This book explores how cycles operate at the global and sub-global developing country levels, with a particular focus on the level of development and the structure of the economies. Drawing an important distinction between cycles and fluctuations, the book criticises mainstream conceptualisation and identification of cycle phenomena, and instead proposes an alternative conception and methodology for the identification of cycles. Along the way, the book also delves into the manufacturing and rise of China, and other potential competitors in the industrial arena, as increasingly important drivers of global cycles and global economic growth. This book will be an important read for researchers and upper-level students of development economics and international political economy.




Vanishing Growth in Latin America


Book Description

Economic growth in Latin America and the rise of material welfare has lagged behind that of more dynamic areas of the world economy. In a region prone to policy experiments, the policies of the Washington Consensus applied since the 1990s failed to bring sustained growth to most of Latin America. Andres Solimano and an impressive set of contributors analyze the last 40 years in order to determine the role of economic reforms, external conditions, factor accumulation, income inequality, political instability and productivity in explaining GDP increases. The book also looks at cycles of growth, identifying periods of rapid growth and contrasting them with periods of stagnation and collapse.




Regional Business Cycles in Latin America


Book Description

This book analyzes regional business cycles in Latin America. The authors explain the nature of regional business cycles and discuss different sources of regional economic fluctuations such as technology changes, natural disasters, or supply and demand shocks. Presenting case studies on Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the authors examine the co-movement of regional business cycles as well as the differing responses of regional economies to external shocks due to regional characteristics such as availability of natural resources, and the degree of integration into national and global markets. This short book appealto students and scholars as well as policy makers interested in regional growth processes in developing countries.