Prudence, Demand Uncertainty, Background Risk and the Law of Supply


Book Description

We identify two motives, prudence and risk aversion, which give rise to precautionary behaviour for a quantity or price setting monopolist facing demand uncertainty who has dual theoretic (DT) preferences. We also analyze a piecewise linear profit function due to a tax on profits which varies with the profit level. We show that the comparative statics of greater risk (mean-preserving spread (MPS) and mean- utility preserving spread (MUPS)) can be totally or partially determined by the Diamond-Stiglitz [1974] and Kihlstrom-Mirman [1974](DSKM) single-crossing property. For example, for a prudent risk averse quantity-setting DT monopolist, a MPS will have the same impact on output under uncertainty as a fall in the state of demand under certainty. Finally, we find that, in contrast to expected utility, a stochastically larger state of demand (first order stochastic dominance) will raise output even if background risk is present.










Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty, and Irreversible Investments


Book Description

This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of complete markets. Until now, this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality or risk aversion in combination with complete markets. Within a general setting, we prove the existence of a unique critical output price that distinguishes price regions in which it is optimal for a risk averse investor to invest and price regions in which one should refrain from investing. We use a class of utility functions that exhibit non-increasing absolute risk aversion to examine the effects of risk aversion, price uncertainty, and other parameters on the optimal investment decision. We find that risk aversion reduces investment, particularly if the investment size is large. Moreover, we find that a rise in price uncertainty increases the value of deferring irreversible investments. This effect is stronger for high levels of risk aversion. In addition, we provide, for the first time, closed-form comparative statics formulas for the risk neutral investor.




Economic and Financial Decisions under Risk


Book Description

An understanding of risk and how to deal with it is an essential part of modern economics. Whether liability litigation for pharmaceutical firms or an individual's having insufficient wealth to retire, risk is something that can be recognized, quantified, analyzed, treated--and incorporated into our decision-making processes. This book represents a concise summary of basic multiperiod decision-making under risk. Its detailed coverage of a broad range of topics is ideally suited for use in advanced undergraduate and introductory graduate courses either as a self-contained text, or the introductory chapters combined with a selection of later chapters can represent core reading in courses on macroeconomics, insurance, portfolio choice, or asset pricing. The authors start with the fundamentals of risk measurement and risk aversion. They then apply these concepts to insurance decisions and portfolio choice in a one-period model. After examining these decisions in their one-period setting, they devote most of the book to a multiperiod context, which adds the long-term perspective most risk management analyses require. Each chapter concludes with a discussion of the relevant literature and a set of problems. The book presents a thoroughly accessible introduction to risk, bridging the gap between the traditionally separate economics and finance literatures.




Risk Aversion, Price Uncertainty, and Irreversibility of Investments


Book Description

This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in the absence of complete markets. Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk aversion in combination with complete markets. We introduce the class of logistic absolute risk aversion (LARA) utility functions to examine the effects of risk aversion, investment size, and other parameters on the optimal investment decision. We find that risk aversion reduces investment, particularly if the investment size is large. Moreover, we find that a rise in uncertainty increases the value of deferring irreversible investments. This effect is stronger for high levels of risk aversion. In addition, we provide, to the best of our knowlegde for the first time, analytical comparative statics formulas for the risk neutral investor.




Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality


Book Description

Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI conference, are arranged to appear in order of increasing complexity of the decision environment or social context in which they situate themselves. The first section `Psychological Aspects of Risk-Bearing', considers choice at the purely individual level and for the most part, free of any specific economic or social context. The second section examines individual choice within the classical expected utility approach while the third section works from a perspective that includes non-expected utility preferences over lotteries. Section four, `Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Under Uncertainty', considers the more specialized but crucial context of uncertain choice involving tradeoffs between competing criteria -- a field which is becoming of increasing importance in applied decision analysis. The final two sections examine uncertain choice in social or group contexts.




Measuring Risk Aversion


Book Description

Provides a detailed discussion of the adjustment of risk references and how to go about making such adjustments to a common scale. By adjusting all information to this common scale, results across studies can be easily summarized and compared, and the body of information concerning risk aversion can be examined as a whole