› › Covid 19 Estimating Impact On The Economy And Poverty In Pakistan Using Sam Multiplier Model

COVID-19: Estimating impact on the economy and poverty in Pakistan: Using SAM Multiplier Model

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 40 pages

File Size : 29,90 MB

Release : 2021-01-23

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.



Estimating the economic impacts of the first wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan using a SAM Multiplier Model

Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 42 pages

File Size : 28,78 MB

Release : 2021-02-13

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.



The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise

Author : Pauw, Karl

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 29 pages

File Size : 30,8 MB

Release : 2021-06-04

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult policy choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.



The Economics of Financial Inclusion

Author : Firdous Ahmad Malik

Publisher : Taylor & Francis

Page : 357 pages

File Size : 46,56 MB

Release : 2024-10-15

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 1040119301

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Book Description

This book offers a thorough examination of the economics of financial inclusion and management from a contemporary standpoint. It covers a vast array of financial inclusion-related topics, surveying economies around the globe and analyzes the factors that contribute to both financial inclusion and exclusion. The book discusses the role of technology, examining how technological advances have revolutionized financial services and increased access to populations that were previously underserved. It studies the intersection of financial inclusion and sustainability, highlighting the significance of green finance and its role in fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Financial literacy and the theories underlying financial inclusion efforts are examined, as is the impact of financial criminality. Further, the authors consider regional development and the extant gaps in financial inclusion as well as the urban-rural divide, investigating disparities between urban and rural areas and proposing strategies to bridge the gap. They also assess the effect of inflation and recession and discuss how monetary and fiscal policies can impact inclusion initiatives. The book concludes with a management perspective on financial inclusion, with chapters devoted to various aspects of administering inclusive financial systems. It combines theoretical insights with empirical evidence and case studies, from both developing and developed nations, to illustrate the various approaches and challenges and to provide a comprehensive understanding of worldwide advancements and developments. The comparative approach provides readers with insights into diverse strategies and best practices for overcoming challenges and obstacles and for promoting financial inclusion in various economic contexts. Overall, readers will benefit from the book's comprehensive analysis and exhaustive coverage. It is an invaluable resource for advanced students, scholars, researchers and policymakers.



Pakistan: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on the economy and poverty

Author : Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 11 pages

File Size : 24,71 MB

Release : 2022-10-14

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing uncertainty, which in turn is fueling volatility in global commodity and financial markets. Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen sharply driven largely by this conflict and sanctions imposed on Russia. Export bans and disruptions in global trade and international supply chains have also contributed to rising prices having implications for economic and food security for countries like Pakistan. This price shock came at a time when the fragile economy of the country was recovering from the effects of COVID-19 pandemic and grappling with the threat of climate change (severe heat wave in March-April 2022 and cataclysmic floods in August-September 2022) Price shock has affected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Balance of Payments since Pakistan is a net importer of oil, LNG, edible oil, and now wheat and may impact economic growth in FY2023. In March 2022, per barrel price of oil saw an increase of 59 percent (USD118) as compared to December 2021. It is estimated that ‘as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages on, oil prices will remain above USD100/barrel, even though they are closer to USD90/barrel in October 2022. In 2022, gas prices are expected to increase by at least 50 percent, especially in Europe, where they have increased by more than 2.5 times in the last year due to its heavy dependency on Russian energy’.2 Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022. The CAD increased from USD 3.1 billion in FY2021 to 17.7 billion in FY2022. However, excluding the impact of oil and edible oil, the CAD could have fallen to around USD 7.7 billion. The increase in administered prices of fuel and electricity as well as shortages in wheat production has increased food inflation from 16.6 percent in September 2021 to 28.6 percent in September 2022 (YoY) while the overall CPI increased from 9.0 to 23.2 percent during the same period. Pakistan’s trade volume with Ukraine and Russia has been rising. During the last 24 years, the bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ukraine was USD 800 million including USD 739 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports). Likewise, the trade with Russia was USD 711 million including USD 537 million imports in 2021 (1.3 percent of Pakistan’s total imports).





Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy: Initial results

Author : Baulch, Bob

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 10 pages

File Size : 18,29 MB

Release : 2020-06-29

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

This Report describes the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of the COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020. This analysis has been undertaken in order to inform the policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi and represents a first pass attempt to measure the short-term economic impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economic. It should be noted that, unlike NPC (2020) our estimates of the economic impact of the COVID-19 on the Malawian economy do not extend beyond 2020 and do not try to set a value on loss of life or life-years. They do, however, allow for detailed breakdown of the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on different sectors and sub-sectors of the Malawian economy.



The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy 2020-2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

Author : Baulch, Bob

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 29 pages

File Size : 22,6 MB

Release : 2020-12-21

Category : Political Science

ISBN :

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Book Description

This working paper builds on a report which was prepared for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference in November 2020. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. We also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium-term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses. We also model the impact of a faster and a slower lifting of restrictions and external shocks during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. With faster easing of restrictions, cumulative GDP gains turn positive by the third quarter of 2021 under the fast recovery scenario and exceed their pre-COVID-19 levels by US$178 million before the end of 2021. However, under the slow recovery scenario, Malawi’s GDP continues to decline until the end of 2020 before recovering during quarters 1 and 4 of 2021. However, this is not sufficient to wipe out the losses in quarters 2 to 4 of 2020, resulting in cumulative losses under the slow recovery scenario of US$332 million over the two years. Relative to the without COVID-19 scenario, US$937 million of GDP is lost under the fast recovery scenario and US$1,447 million under the slow recovery one. As both the development of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic situation in Malawi are highly uncertain at the present time, the results reported in this paper should be regarded as interim estimates, which are subject to revision as the underlying health and economic data change.



Social Accounting Matrices and Multiplier Analysis

Author : Clemens Breisinger

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 42 pages

File Size : 47,95 MB

Release : 2009

Category : Business & Economics

ISBN : 0896297837

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Book Description

This training guide introduces development practitioners, policy analysts, and students to social accounting matrices (SAMs) and their use in policy analysis. There are already a number of books that explain the System of National Accounts and SAM multipliers-some of these are recommended at the end of this training guide. However, most books tend to be quite technical and move quickly from an introduction to more complex applications. By contrast, this guidebook uses a series of hands-on exercises to gradually introduce SAMs and multiplier analysis. It therefore complements more theoretical SAM and multiplier literature and provides a first step for development practitioners and students wishing to understand the strengths and limitations of these economic tools. It is also useful for policy analysts and researchers embarking on more complex SAM-based methodologies. One such methodology is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, for which IFPRI has also developed a series of introductory exercises and a standard modeling framework.To download the exercises, go to www.ifpri.org/publication/social-accounting-matrices-and-multiplier-analysis



2021 Global food policy report: Transforming food systems after COVID-19

Author : International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Page : 124 pages

File Size : 40,12 MB

Release : 2021-04-13

Category : Political Science

ISBN : 0896293998

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Book Description

The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?