Book Description

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies and the Mountbatten Centre for International Studies (MCIS) at the University of Southampton are very pleased to initiate a new Occasional Paper series devoted to the topic of ballistic missile proliferation. The focus of this series reflects the concern of both centers that the spread of ballistic missiles constitutes one of the most serious and complex nonproliferation challenges today. This problem was highlighted in an extensive study on the future of nuclear weapons conducted by MCIS between 1997-99. It pointed to the role ballistic missile proliferation could play in threatening new action-reaction arms instabilities of great complexity and unpredictability, the reaction part of this equation being the pursuit of ballistic missile defenses, in particular by the United States. These instabilities were likely to simultaneously limit nuclear disarmament and stimulate nuclear proliferation, as well as threaten peaceful uses of space. In parallel, however, a process was also underway to build a regime to control ballistic missiles. This situation led MICS to initiate a project focused on addressing this emerging range of political and technical issues. One of its aims is to move the debate over missile defenses into an international context. A second is to assist in international efforts to develop mechanisms for multilateral control of ballistic missiles. The strategy chosen by MCIS was to engage states by requesting the preparation of short papers setting out national perceptions of the challenges facing the international community in the areas of missile proliferation and missile defense. An international workshop that included leading research organizations and individuals working in the field followed. Its purpose was to identify both the main policy issues emerging from the national papers and the evolving international debate, and to prepare the agenda for a larger seminar bringing together a broader range of specialists and those who had attended the first research workshop. The first workshop took place in December 2000, and the seminar will occur in March 2001.The aim of the seminar is to initiate a process of .Track-2. international dialogue on these issues, as well as agree the formation of an international consortium of research institutes to pursue this work. The contributions to this Occasional Paper were initially prepared as presentations for the December 2000 workshop. At that meeting, it was suggested that an early volume offering an overview of the missile defense issue and emerging challenges would be a useful contribution to the international debate on the control of missile proliferation and defenses, and serve as the first product of the new venture, to be known as the Mountbatten Centre International Missile Forum (MCIMF). Initial partner organizations in this Forum are the publishers of this occasional paper, the Monterey Institute for International Studies (MIIS); the Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI); the Japanese Institute of International Affairs (JIIA); the Moscow Center of the Carnegie Endowment; and the Peace Research Institute, Frankfurt (PRIF). We would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the generous financial support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, which has enabled the project to move forward on a secure financial basis, and to thank the editorial staff of CNS for their work in producing this publication.