Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries - Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications


Book Description

This paper seeks to address queries on several operational issues: (i) the robustness of the indicative thresholds; (ii) modalities for implementing DSAs; and (iii) operational implications for the Fund, Bank, and other international financial institutions and creditors.




Operational Framework for Debt Sustainability Assessments in Low-Income Countries - Further Considerations


Book Description

Building on initial discussions of the proposed framework in February/March 2004, and further considerations in September 2004, this paper responds to remaining concerns that need to be resolved to make the framework operational. These concerns relate to the indicative debt-burden thresholds (Section II); the interaction of the framework with the HIPC Initiative (Section III); and the modalities for Bank-Fund collaboration in deriving a common assessment of sustainability (Section IV). This note should be read in conjunction with the original proposal, which presented the wider issues on the use of the indicative thresholds, the evaluation of policies and institutions, and the need for discretion when assessing sustainability on a forward-looking basis.




Union of the Comoros


Book Description

The assessment shows that despite challenging circumstances, Comoros has made progress on political and economic reforms under IMF-supported programs. Comorian authorities implemented a program for maintaining macroeconomic stability, reducing poverty, improving public financial management, public expenditure policy, and external debt management. The IMF and IDA authorities assessed that, on this decision point, the full delivery of Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) debt relief and sound debt management debt relief will enable the government to better implement the economic reforms that are needed to support sustainable growth in Comoros.




Lao People's Democratic Republic


Book Description

Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s growth is expected to moderate but remain fairly robust, supported by large projects in train, strong mineral exports, and expansionary policies. The staff report for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights economic developments and policies. The largest impact has been on the mining sector, but delays in hydropower projects are also evident. Inflation is expected to remain low and stable, assuming no significant pickup in commodity prices. However, overly expansionary fiscal and credit policies pose a risk to macroeconomic stability.




Mongolia


Book Description

This paper focuses on the increase in the external debt stock that reflects donor financing, including IMF and Bank lending to help Mongolia smooth its fiscal adjustment path after the major terms of trade shock. The fiscal deficit is expected to steadily decline until revenues from the Oyu Tolgoi mine enter the budget. Since the World Bank’s 2008 Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA), Mongolia has improved debt management procedures and has prepared a medium-term debt management strategy.




Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries


Book Description

This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.




Guinea


Book Description

This paper was prepared by staffs of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in connection with the Executive Board’s consideration of Guinea’s Completion Point under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and debt relief under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 11, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Guinea or the Executive Board of the IMF.