Book Description

This report from the Treasury Committee examines the recent economic analysis and assessment of the UK economy as outlined in the 2006 pre-budget report, and sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations, including: the Committee welcomes the recent rise in the growth rate of business investment, but with the caveat that the downside risk as highlighted in a previous weakness for business investment, remains unexplained; that several risks exist around the consumption growth forecast, including the potential of house prices to fall, and the increase of personal insolvency; the employment rate rise is commended, but a lack of migration statistics in relation to the labour market, means an overall assessment is not possible; although an improved forecast for economic growth in 2006, the Treasury has not forecast an improvement in the fiscal position; the Government appears to be on track to meet the golden rule in the current economic cycle, but will start the next economic cycle with its current budget in deficit; the Committee recommends also that the Treasury, in future Budgets and Pre-Budget reports provide a fuller explanation of its current forecast of the start and end dates of the current economic cycle; also, future Budget and Pre-Budget reports should provide a breakdown of reported efficiency gains by department, and further to enhance transparency and enable effective scrutiny, the Treasury should require departments in their departmental annual reports and Autumn Performance reports in 2007 and in later years to provide consistent and comprehensive information on progress against efficiency targets; the Committee expressed dissatisfaction at the lateness and vagueness of information in relation to expenditure on education, but approved the early announcement of capital spending plans for education up to 2010-11; the Committee though does welcome the Government's decision to commission and publish a range of reviews informing future economic policy, including tax policy; the Pre-Budget report is seen as an effective instrument of fiscal consultation, but this could be enhanced if Parliament and the public were given greater notice of the date of the report, perhaps 4 weeks before the statement is due to be made; where tax changes carry significant risk of forestalling activity or distorting market behaviour, such as the unusual timing and implementation of the increases in Air Passenger Duty, the Committee feels, as a general rule, that those increases should not come into force until the House of Commons has had an opportunity to come to a formal decision on such an increase.