Determinants of the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries


Book Description

This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor methodology, which imposes a no arbitrage condition on the relationship between the foreign exchange risk premium and its macroeconomic determinants. Estimation results suggest that U.S. inflation and consumption growth are important factors driving the risk premium, which is in line with the standard C-CAPM model. In addition, growth in international oil prices influences the risk premium, reflecting the important role played by the hydrocarbon sector in GCC economies. The methodology employed in this paper can be used for forecasting the risk premium on a monthly basis, which has important practical implications for policymakers interested in the timely monitoring of risks in the GCC.




Handbook of Globalisation and Development


Book Description

Characterised by conceptual diversity, the Handbook of Globalisation and Development presents contributions from prominent international researchers on all aspects of globalisation and carefully considers their role across a whole host of development processes. The Handbook is structured around seven key areas: international trade, international production, international finance, migration, foreign aid, a broader view, and challenges. Adopting a multi-disciplinary approach, the section on ‘a broader view’ delves into dimensions of globalisation and development that go beyond the mere economic, such as: culture, technology, health, and poverty. Carefully crafted, the chapters herein offer a rigorous and comprehensive assessment of the available research to date and provide an assessment of policy options across all areas considered.




Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC)


Book Description

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.




Bridging the Gulf: EU-GCC Relations at a Crossroads


Book Description

Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are at a crossroads. After the derailment of the negotiations for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2008, the cooperation between the two regional blocs has remained low-key in a number of different areas, while the unprecedented changes that have taken place in North Africa and the Middle East, the common neighbourhood of the EU and the GCC, have not led to a renewed, structured cooperation on foreign and security policy issues. This volume addresses the shortcomings and potential of EU-GCC relations by taking stock of their past evolution and by advancing policy recommendations as to how to revamp this strategic cooperation. In this light, it highlights the areas where greater room for manoeuvre exists in order to enhance EU-GCC relations, discusses the instruments available and sheds light on the features of the regional and international context that are likely to significantly influence the new phase in the mutual relation between the two blocs. The book is the result of the research conducted in the framework of the project ‘Sharaka – Enhancing Understanding and Cooperation in EU-GCC Relations’ co-funded by the European Commission.







Bangladesh's Macroeconomic Policy


Book Description

This book provides valuable insights on issues pertaining to current macroeconomic policy debates and challenges in Bangladesh. It evaluates various macroeconomic policies and reflects on a future direction in terms of four central themes: (i) Macroeconomic Policy, Growth and Poverty; (ii) Monetary and Fiscal Policy; (iii) International Trade and Finance; and (iv) Finance and Growth. Given its scope, the book will serve as a useful resource for academics and macroeconomic practitioners whose work involves developing countries.




The Remittance Market in India


Book Description

This book analyzes the remittance market in India and attempts to identify some of the key actions and public policy measures for the improvement and future development of this market.




Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices


Book Description

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.




Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models


Book Description

This monograph is concerned with the statistical analysis of multivariate systems of non-stationary time series of type I. It applies the concepts of cointegration and common trends in the framework of the Gaussian vector autoregressive model.




Monetary Issues in the Middle East and North Africa Region


Book Description

This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.